Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#129
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#90
Pace61.1#354
Improvement-0.2#196

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#176
First Shot-5.7#324
After Offensive Rebound+5.7#8
Layup/Dunks-4.2#306
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows-1.6#257
Improvement+1.3#35

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#109
First Shot-1.3#228
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#21
Layups/Dunks-3.8#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#61
Freethrows-1.8#277
Improvement-1.4#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 16.1% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 85.1% 88.5% 71.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.2% 88.0% 79.3%
Conference Champion 20.4% 22.0% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round15.0% 16.0% 10.7%
Second Round2.2% 2.5% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Away) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 413 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 14%     0 - 1 +7.0 +6.0 +0.5
  Nov 12, 2024 72   @ South Carolina L 54-80 21%     0 - 2 -15.2 -12.3 -3.2
  Nov 16, 2024 126   James Madison W 67-63 60%     1 - 2 +3.5 -1.1 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 230   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 60%     2 - 2 +5.6 +4.2 +2.0
  Nov 24, 2024 332   @ Morgan St. W 75-66 80%    
  Nov 28, 2024 123   Kent St. L 64-65 48%    
  Nov 29, 2024 161   Kennesaw St. W 76-74 58%    
  Nov 30, 2024 59   UC Irvine L 61-68 27%    
  Dec 07, 2024 311   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 80-66 89%    
  Dec 14, 2024 211   Duquesne W 67-62 66%    
  Dec 17, 2024 288   @ Robert Morris W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 22, 2024 160   Bryant W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 112   @ College of Charleston L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 09, 2025 149   Northeastern W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 61-63 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 134   Hofstra W 65-62 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 302   Stony Brook W 73-60 87%    
  Jan 23, 2025 285   N.C. A&T W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 27, 2025 149   @ Northeastern L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 30, 2025 216   @ Delaware W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 144   Drexel W 64-60 64%    
  Feb 06, 2025 302   @ Stony Brook W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 265   @ Monmouth W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 216   Delaware W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 265   Monmouth W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 207   @ Elon W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 257   @ Campbell W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 210   William & Mary W 76-68 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 307   Hampton W 69-56 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 6.1 4.3 2.0 0.5 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.7 5.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.7 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.7 4.2 0.9 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.2 1.1 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.9 6.0 8.4 11.0 12.9 14.1 13.2 11.3 8.1 4.7 2.0 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.3% 2.0    1.9 0.1
16-2 92.3% 4.3    3.7 0.6 0.0
15-3 75.0% 6.1    4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 44.2% 5.0    1.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.9% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 12.4 5.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 61.9% 55.0% 6.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15.4%
17-1 2.0% 45.2% 44.4% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.3%
16-2 4.7% 39.3% 39.3% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 0.1%
15-3 8.1% 30.6% 30.6% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.6 0.0%
14-4 11.3% 24.3% 24.3% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.6
13-5 13.2% 18.7% 18.7% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 10.7
12-6 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 13.6 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.1
11-7 12.9% 9.1% 9.1% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.7
10-8 11.0% 5.5% 5.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-9 8.4% 3.3% 3.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
8-10 6.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-11 3.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.5 5.2 3.1 1.1 0.2 85.0 0.1%