Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#320
Expected Predictive Rating-10.5#322
Pace64.7#281
Improvement+1.3#124

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#280
First Shot-5.4#322
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#99
Layup/Dunks-3.8#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#261
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement-0.9#239

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#329
First Shot-3.7#293
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#308
Layups/Dunks-4.4#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#288
Freethrows+1.5#80
Improvement+2.2#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.9% 38.8% 59.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 46.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 102 - 13
Quad 45 - 117 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 20   @ Marquette L 62-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.7 -1.1 -20.8
  Nov 07, 2024 225   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 22%     1 - 1 +0.1 +3.6 -3.5
  Nov 11, 2024 86   @ George Mason L 56-94 5%     1 - 2 -28.7 -8.5 -20.5
  Nov 20, 2024 88   Yale L 64-86 12%     1 - 3 -18.3 -8.9 -9.2
  Nov 23, 2024 207   @ Columbia L 63-82 18%     1 - 4 -18.5 -11.2 -8.0
  Nov 27, 2024 212   @ Brown L 54-77 19%     1 - 5 -23.0 -15.2 -9.2
  Dec 01, 2024 182   Norfolk St. L 66-77 29%     1 - 6 -14.6 -3.9 -11.7
  Dec 07, 2024 275   Air Force L 61-69 39%     1 - 7 -14.4 -14.0 -0.5
  Dec 14, 2024 294   @ Rider W 72-55 34%     2 - 7 +12.1 +10.4 +4.9
  Dec 17, 2024 218   Marist L 66-68 37%     2 - 8 -7.9 +8.0 -16.3
  Dec 21, 2024 202   Maine W 74-72 33%     3 - 8 -2.7 +7.6 -10.1
  Dec 29, 2024 260   @ Albany L 70-77 27%     3 - 9 -9.9 -2.0 -8.2
  Jan 02, 2025 267   @ Monmouth L 56-78 28%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -25.3 -9.4 -19.2
  Jan 04, 2025 189   William & Mary L 76-83 31%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -11.0 +2.8 -14.3
  Jan 09, 2025 193   Drexel L 51-67 31%     3 - 12 0 - 3 -20.1 -8.7 -15.8
  Jan 11, 2025 200   Northeastern L 66-70 33%     3 - 13 0 - 4 -8.6 -7.1 -1.5
  Jan 16, 2025 196   @ Delaware L 74-84 16%     3 - 14 0 - 5 -8.8 -1.4 -7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ Towson L 49-53 15%     3 - 15 0 - 6 -1.9 -12.1 +9.4
  Jan 23, 2025 252   Campbell L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 323   N.C. A&T W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 68-82 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-77 10%    
  Feb 06, 2025 176   Towson L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 174   @ Hofstra L 58-69 13%    
  Feb 13, 2025 267   Monmouth L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 200   @ Northeastern L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 20, 2025 256   @ Hampton L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 323   @ N.C. A&T L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 174   Hofstra L 60-66 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 158   Elon L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.2 2.0 3.3 0.9 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.5 4.1 6.8 3.1 0.3 14.8 12th
13th 0.3 4.1 13.1 14.1 6.5 0.8 0.0 38.9 13th
14th 2.1 8.5 12.2 9.2 2.8 0.3 35.0 14th
Total 2.1 8.8 16.3 22.8 21.1 15.7 8.3 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-11 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
6-12 8.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-13 15.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-14 21.1% 21.1
3-15 22.8% 22.8
2-16 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
1-17 8.8% 8.8
0-18 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%