Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#309
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#275
Pace67.9#210
Improvement+1.6#77

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#301
First Shot-5.3#324
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#139
Layup/Dunks-0.1#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#284
Freethrows-0.7#231
Improvement-0.9#260

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#290
First Shot-2.8#272
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#254
Layups/Dunks-6.2#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#251
Freethrows+2.9#28
Improvement+2.4#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 2.7% 4.5% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 14.8% 17.8% 12.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 28.4% 24.4% 31.8%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 99 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 62-102 2%     0 - 1 -21.7 -1.6 -20.3
  Nov 07, 2024 219   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 22%     1 - 1 +1.2 +4.3 -3.1
  Nov 11, 2024 83   @ George Mason L 56-94 6%     1 - 2 -28.4 -9.7 -19.0
  Nov 20, 2024 105   Yale L 64-86 18%     1 - 3 -20.5 -10.9 -9.4
  Nov 23, 2024 183   @ Columbia L 63-82 17%     1 - 4 -17.1 -9.2 -8.5
  Nov 27, 2024 159   @ Brown L 54-77 15%     1 - 5 -20.1 -14.1 -7.4
  Dec 01, 2024 196   Norfolk St. L 66-77 37%     1 - 6 -15.7 -4.6 -12.0
  Dec 07, 2024 267   Air Force L 61-69 41%     1 - 7 -13.7 -14.3 +0.5
  Dec 14, 2024 288   @ Rider W 72-55 34%     2 - 7 +13.3 +11.1 +5.4
  Dec 17, 2024 236   Marist L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 21, 2024 213   Maine L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 29, 2024 248   @ Albany L 73-79 28%    
  Jan 02, 2025 273   @ Monmouth L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 225   William & Mary L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 153   Drexel L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 158   Northeastern L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 16, 2025 207   @ Delaware L 71-80 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 209   @ Towson L 59-68 21%    
  Jan 23, 2025 269   Campbell W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 313   N.C. A&T W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 122   @ College of Charleston L 67-81 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 65-77 13%    
  Feb 06, 2025 209   Towson L 62-65 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 13, 2025 273   Monmouth W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 158   @ Northeastern L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 20, 2025 270   @ Hampton L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 313   @ N.C. A&T L 76-78 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 156   Hofstra L 63-68 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 149   Elon L 67-73 31%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.7 1.5 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.1 0.3 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.9 1.1 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.4 2.4 0.1 12.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 14.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.6 4.4 0.8 0.0 16.1 13th
14th 0.6 2.4 5.1 5.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 18.3 14th
Total 0.6 2.5 5.8 9.9 13.6 15.2 15.1 12.8 9.8 6.5 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 80.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 65.9% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 4.2% 4.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 8.0% 8.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.4% 8.6% 8.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-7 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
10-8 4.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
9-9 6.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.5
8-10 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-11 12.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-12 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
5-13 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
4-14 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.6
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.8
1-17 2.5% 2.5
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%