College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#122
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#72
Pace74.4#59
Improvement-0.2#202

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#132
First Shot+3.0#95
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#271
Layup/Dunks-1.0#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement-0.6#234

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#133
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#145
Layups/Dunks-0.8#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
Freethrows+1.8#63
Improvement+0.4#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 25.5% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 97.8% 99.5% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 95.1% 90.5%
Conference Champion 29.6% 36.2% 26.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round21.3% 25.5% 19.5%
Second Round2.8% 3.8% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Neutral) - 30.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 37 - 49 - 7
Quad 412 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 169   Southern Illinois W 90-80 62%     1 - 0 +9.4 +9.5 -1.1
  Nov 08, 2024 145   South Florida W 86-71 68%     2 - 0 +12.7 +0.1 +10.5
  Nov 15, 2024 84   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 46%     3 - 0 +6.6 +15.7 -9.9
  Nov 17, 2024 77   Liberty L 47-68 44%     3 - 1 -16.9 -19.2 +0.8
  Nov 20, 2024 345   @ The Citadel W 76-61 85%     4 - 1 +6.3 +3.4 +3.6
  Nov 24, 2024 98   @ Rhode Island L 53-91 29%     4 - 2 -29.6 -18.8 -8.5
  Nov 27, 2024 216   Northern Kentucky W 79-64 78%     5 - 2 +9.3 +7.5 +2.2
  Dec 10, 2024 103   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 30%     6 - 2 +10.9 +4.9 +5.8
  Dec 16, 2024 163   Wofford W 77-67 72%     7 - 2 +6.6 +4.4 +2.7
  Dec 22, 2024 67   Oregon St. L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 02, 2025 270   Hampton W 77-66 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 209   Towson W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 273   @ Monmouth W 78-73 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 269   @ Campbell W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 158   Northeastern W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 23, 2025 142   UNC Wilmington W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 149   @ Elon L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 309   Stony Brook W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 01, 2025 225   @ William & Mary W 84-81 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 313   N.C. A&T W 89-75 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 149   Elon W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 313   @ N.C. A&T W 86-78 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 158   @ Northeastern L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 153   @ Drexel L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 207   Delaware W 84-76 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 269   Campbell W 78-67 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.0 7.9 8.3 5.6 2.4 0.5 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 7.1 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 6.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 3.5 0.9 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.8 10.1 13.0 15.0 15.2 13.3 9.7 5.8 2.4 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.9% 2.4    2.4 0.0
16-2 97.7% 5.6    5.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 85.3% 8.3    6.1 2.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 59.3% 7.9    4.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.3% 4.0    0.9 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 19.1 7.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 52.1% 50.2% 1.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3.8%
17-1 2.4% 49.0% 48.8% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.5%
16-2 5.8% 40.4% 40.4% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.4 0.1%
15-3 9.7% 35.3% 35.3% 12.4 0.1 2.0 1.3 0.1 6.3
14-4 13.3% 29.1% 29.1% 12.7 0.0 1.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.5
13-5 15.2% 24.5% 24.5% 13.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.0 11.5
12-6 15.0% 20.2% 20.2% 13.3 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.9
11-7 13.0% 14.1% 14.1% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 11.1
10-8 10.1% 9.2% 9.2% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.2
9-9 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.3
8-10 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
7-11 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.1 8.6 4.1 0.6 0.0 78.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.5 1.3 1.3 17.1 1.3 3.9 15.8 11.8 30.3 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 8.0% 11.0 8.0