College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#100
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#26
Pace84.6#5
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.5% 34.0% 24.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 2.3% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.0 11.7 12.5
.500 or above 95.7% 98.3% 93.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 97.6% 94.6%
Conference Champion 40.1% 46.1% 33.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round29.2% 33.5% 24.8%
Second Round7.0% 9.0% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.8% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 49 - 6
Quad 413 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 161   Southern Illinois W 90-80 67%     1 - 0 +10.4 +9.0 +0.4
  Nov 08, 2024 120   South Florida W 86-71 68%     2 - 0 +15.1 +1.9 +11.1
  Nov 15, 2024 74   Florida Atlantic W 91-90 51%    
  Nov 17, 2024 104   Liberty W 77-74 62%    
  Nov 20, 2024 292   @ The Citadel W 80-71 79%    
  Nov 24, 2024 116   @ Rhode Island L 84-85 46%    
  Nov 27, 2024 180   Northern Kentucky W 83-74 79%    
  Dec 10, 2024 106   @ Saint Joseph's L 80-83 41%    
  Dec 16, 2024 178   Wofford W 83-74 79%    
  Dec 22, 2024 103   Oregon St. W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 02, 2025 323   Hampton W 90-73 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 134   Towson W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 09, 2025 131   @ Hofstra W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 285   @ Monmouth W 86-78 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 304   @ Campbell W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 170   Northeastern W 83-74 77%    
  Jan 23, 2025 156   UNC Wilmington W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   @ Elon W 85-77 75%    
  Jan 30, 2025 287   Stony Brook W 88-73 89%    
  Feb 01, 2025 244   @ William & Mary W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 300   N.C. A&T W 92-77 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 272   Elon W 88-74 88%    
  Feb 13, 2025 156   @ UNC Wilmington W 81-80 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 300   @ N.C. A&T W 89-80 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 170   @ Northeastern W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 137   @ Drexel W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 204   Delaware W 87-77 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 304   Campbell W 85-70 90%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.6 10.4 11.4 8.0 3.0 40.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.5 7.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.4 8.2 10.9 13.6 15.8 15.3 12.6 8.0 3.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
17-1 99.1% 8.0    7.4 0.5
16-2 90.5% 11.4    9.0 2.3 0.1
15-3 67.7% 10.4    6.2 3.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 35.5% 5.6    2.0 2.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 11.6% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.1% 40.1 27.9 9.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.0% 75.4% 62.5% 12.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 34.2%
17-1 8.0% 57.1% 51.7% 5.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 11.3%
16-2 12.6% 46.1% 44.8% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 6.8 2.2%
15-3 15.3% 36.3% 36.2% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.4 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 0.2%
14-4 15.8% 29.6% 29.5% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 11.1 0.1%
13-5 13.6% 23.2% 23.2% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 10.5
12-6 10.9% 17.5% 17.5% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.0
11-7 8.2% 11.9% 11.9% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.2
10-8 5.4% 7.1% 7.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.0
9-9 3.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2
8-10 2.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 29.5% 28.5% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 4.0 11.2 7.7 3.1 0.7 0.1 70.5 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.5 2.5 6.3 18.8 25.0 27.5 13.8 2.5 1.3 2.5