College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#143
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#92
Pace74.4#43
Improvement-2.5#292

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#167
First Shot+2.9#96
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#322
Layup/Dunks-0.9#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows+1.5#89
Improvement-1.1#241

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#153
First Shot+0.0#185
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#115
Layups/Dunks-1.2#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#161
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement-1.3#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 20.1% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.8% 12.5% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.4% 20.1% 16.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 39 - 411 - 7
Quad 413 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 179   Southern Illinois W 90-80 58%     1 - 0 +9.0 +8.2 -0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 176   South Florida W 86-71 67%     2 - 0 +11.5 +1.2 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 105   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 48%     3 - 0 +4.5 +15.0 -11.2
  Nov 17, 2024 77   Liberty L 47-68 36%     3 - 1 -16.2 -17.9 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 358   @ The Citadel W 76-61 88%     4 - 1 +3.2 +1.9 +2.0
  Nov 24, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 53-91 36%     4 - 2 -33.2 -20.7 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 241   Northern Kentucky W 79-64 78%     5 - 2 +8.0 +6.1 +2.4
  Dec 10, 2024 78   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 20%     6 - 2 +12.9 +6.1 +6.6
  Dec 16, 2024 142   Wofford W 77-67 60%     7 - 2 +8.5 +5.8 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2024 87   Oregon St. L 65-74 30%     7 - 3 -2.6 -9.3 +6.9
  Dec 23, 2024 110   Loyola Chicago W 77-68 41%     8 - 3 +12.4 +0.6 +11.0
  Dec 25, 2024 235   Charlotte W 84-81 69%     9 - 3 -1.0 +4.1 -5.3
  Jan 02, 2025 250   Hampton W 94-67 79%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +19.6 +9.2 +7.9
  Jan 04, 2025 157   Towson W 77-69 62%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +5.9 +7.1 -1.0
  Jan 09, 2025 227   @ Hofstra W 67-61 58%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +5.0 -3.2 +8.1
  Jan 11, 2025 255   @ Monmouth L 73-84 64%     12 - 4 3 - 1 -13.7 -2.2 -11.4
  Jan 16, 2025 183   @ Campbell W 67-61 49%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +7.3 -1.9 +9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 212   Northeastern W 87-85 73%     14 - 4 5 - 1 -3.2 +9.4 -12.7
  Jan 23, 2025 116   UNC Wilmington L 83-85 53%     14 - 5 5 - 2 -1.7 +7.6 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 175   @ Elon W 76-62 47%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +15.7 +12.1 +5.2
  Jan 30, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 81-74 88%     16 - 5 7 - 2 -4.9 +5.0 -9.6
  Feb 03, 2025 216   @ William & Mary L 75-90 56%     16 - 6 7 - 3 -15.4 +3.4 -19.5
  Feb 06, 2025 316   N.C. A&T W 66-63 88%     17 - 6 8 - 3 -8.7 -7.9 -0.7
  Feb 08, 2025 175   Elon W 88-83 OT 67%     18 - 6 9 - 3 +1.6 +2.0 -1.1
  Feb 13, 2025 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-86 34%     18 - 7 9 - 4 -14.6 -2.9 -12.7
  Feb 15, 2025 316   @ N.C. A&T W 69-59 77%     19 - 7 10 - 4 +3.4 -2.3 +6.2
  Feb 20, 2025 212   @ Northeastern W 73-62 54%     20 - 7 11 - 4 +10.9 +1.1 +9.9
  Feb 22, 2025 195   @ Drexel W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 244   Delaware W 87-79 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 183   Campbell W 74-69 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 6.0 6.8 1st
2nd 1.3 18.5 18.1 37.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 15.0 26.0 4.2 45.6 3rd
4th 1.9 5.6 0.3 7.8 4th
5th 1.4 0.6 2.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 3.7 22.4 45.5 28.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 21.2% 6.0    0.4 2.8 2.8 0.1
13-5 1.7% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 6.8% 6.8 0.4 2.9 3.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 28.4% 21.5% 21.5% 13.3 0.8 3.1 2.1 0.1 22.3
13-5 45.5% 18.8% 18.8% 14.0 0.1 1.7 5.1 1.8 0.0 36.9
12-6 22.4% 15.2% 15.2% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.2 0.0 19.0
11-7 3.7% 9.2% 9.2% 14.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.8 5.1 9.3 3.2 0.0 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.1% 100.0% 13.3 12.5 50.4 35.0 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.3%
Lose Out 1.4%