College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.1 156
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 135
Pace 70.8 119
Improvement +1.9 112

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #177 C- C C B+ C-
Defense C #153 C+ C D- A- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 213 64% 53 +1.7 114
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 136 37% 216 +0.5 149
Three Pointers 40% 203 28% 353 -3.7 308
1st FG Attempt 0.99 220 -1.5 221
Second Chance 29.3% 216 1.06 127 0.31 174
Turnovers 16.9% 179
Freethrows 0.36 33 75% 104 0.27 28
Total Offense -0.6 177

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 337 62% 281 +3.2 74
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 66 35% 68 -0.6 234
Three Pointers 45% 69 32% 100 -0.7 216
1st FG Attempt 0.98 112 +1.9 117
Second Chance 30.9% 196 1.00 130 0.31 164
Turnovers 13.7% 339
Freethrows 0.23 14 70% 54 0.16 15
Total Defense +0.5 153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 236 -1.0 40
Shot Type Accuracy -1.2 216 -0.9 147
Possession Length 17.1 144 17.2 167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 171 0.18 206
Improvement -1.6 #280 +3.4 #26

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 13% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 99% 100% 98%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 21% 30% 13%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 13% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 67 - 11
Quad 412 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 95 @Liberty L 75 - 90 21% -8  4% 0 - 1 D+ -7 A- +10 B A+ D+ F -18 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 114 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 37% -15  0% 0 - 2 D- -14 B +6 C D A- F -21 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 14 358 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 94% +14  86% 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 C+ C+ A+ C+ +1 B- B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 177 Drake L 62 - 71 65% -5  21% 1 - 3 D- -13 F -16 F D- C- B- +3 C B+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 183 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 55% -1  37% 2 - 3 C+ +3 D -5 F A+ A- A- +8 C- C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 81 Yale L 63 - 74 25% -9  0% 2 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ F C+ B- +4 C A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 273 Evansville W 78 - 59 72% +12  93% 3 - 4 B+ +13 C +1 C+ C- C A +12 A A+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 78 Belmont L 73 - 96 33% -19  1% 3 - 5 F -19 D+ -3 F B A+ F -15 F A F
 Wed, Dec 10 62 @South Florida L 75 - 81 14% -2  27% 3 - 6 B- +6 B +6 D B- C+ C -0 B- C+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 168 Charlotte W 74 - 67 63% +3  74% 4 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -4 B C+ D- B+ +7 B+ A D
 Wed, Dec 17 347 The Citadel W 82 - 78 91% -2  42% 5 - 6 D- -11 D+ -4 C F C- D- -8 D- C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 201 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 48% +4  86% 6 - 6 B+ +11 B +6 A- C C- B +5 C B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 217 Drexel W 72 - 63 71% -1  37% 7 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +3 B- +5 A- A D+ C -1 C+ B- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 215 @Elon W 85 - 81 49% +7  89% 8 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +2 D- B C- C+ +2 B+ B- F
 Mon, Jan 5 145 William & Mary W 88 - 79 57% +6  84% 9 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 D+ -2 B F+ F+ A- +8 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 248 Hampton W 74 - 70 76% +5  95% 10 - 6 4 - 0 C- -4 B- +5 C+ B- A D- -8 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 172 @Towson L 52 - 61 41% -9  0% 10 - 7 4 - 1 D+ -7 F -18 F C- F A +11 A+ F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 213 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 49% -3  17% 10 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 A +11 C A A- F -16 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 192 Campbell W 87 - 83 68% +3  54% 11 - 8 5 - 2 C -1 B- +4 B+ C+ D+ D+ -5 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 215 Elon W 80 - 70 71% +10  98% 12 - 8 6 - 2 C+ +4 D -4 C D+ F A- +8 A+ C+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 117 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 28% -3  18% 13 - 8 7 - 2 B- +8 D -6 F B B- A+ +14 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 269 @Northeastern W 89 - 84 61% -2  21% 14 - 8 8 - 2 C+ +2 A +11 C- C A+ F+ -9 F+ C F
 Thu, Feb 5 286 N.C. A&T W 78 - 62 83% +5  68% 15 - 8 9 - 2 B- +6 D+ -4 B- D+ F A- +9 B- B A+
 Mon, Feb 9 113 UNC Wilmington L 64 - 76 48% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 3 D- -12 F -10 D C- F C- -2 B C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 117 Hofstra L 72 - 73 50%
 Sun, Feb 15 192 @Campbell L 79 - 80 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 286 @N.C. A&T W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 208 Monmouth W 75 - 69 70%
 Thu, Feb 26 248 @Hampton W 71 - 69 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 113 @UNC Wilmington L 70 - 76 27%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 6 +0 C -1 C- C C C +0 C+ C D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B C- F+ C- 37% 23% 40% C- C- C- C+ C C B+ B- B+ C D+ B B- C+ 31% 24% 45% B+ C+ C C+ C D- A- B A-
1.08 64% 37% 28% -1 0 0.99 29% 1.1 .31 17% .36 75% .27 1.08 62% 35% 32% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.0 .31 14% .23 70% .25
Nov
7		 Liberty A- D A A- B 35% 22% 43% C- B B A+ A+ D+ A+ F B+ F C- F F F+ 44% 8% 48% B- D- F F F F D C- D
1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22 1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21
Nov
8		 Florida Atlantic B C- D- B C 43% 20% 37% C- C A F D A- A A+ A+ F D F B C- 35% 15% 50% C- C- F F F F D- F+ F+
1.14 55% 30% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36 1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28
Nov
14		 South Carolina St. B+ A+ F F C+ 48% 14% 38% C C+ A- D- C+ A+ A+ D- A- C+ F+ A+ F C- 17% 52% 31% A+ B- F A+ B+ D- F A+ C-
1.31 92% 29% 16% +5 +2 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 10% .51 68% .35 0.91 63% 20% 47% -3 -6 0.85 38% 0.6 .22 18% .49 44% .22
Nov
17		 Drake F A+ F F F+ 13% 44% 42% F F B F D- C- B- D- C B- D A+ D+ C 26% 21% 53% C+ C C A+ B+ A B+ A+ A
0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21 1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14
Nov
21		 Massachusetts D B+ B- F F 40% 15% 45% C+ F F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- B+ F B D+ 35% 22% 43% C+ C- C B- C+ B+ A A+ A+
1.02 68% 43% 14% -8 +1 0.87 11% 4.3 .48 13% .49 83% .41 0.96 50% 70% 30% +2 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 22% .25 46% .11
Nov
23		 Yale F+ C+ F F F 42% 17% 42% B F+ C- F F C+ A+ D A+ B- B C- F C- 39% 29% 33% A- C B+ A+ A+ D- C+ A+ A-
0.97 60% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 29% 0.5 .14 14% .43 67% .29 1.14 53% 43% 50% +7 -1 1.14 29% 0.9 .26 12% .32 61% .19
Nov
24		 Evansville C D C A C+ 31% 20% 49% C C+ D B C- C A- B A A B+ C+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% F A A+ F A+ F C C C
1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27 0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22
Nov
30		 Belmont D+ F F F F 13% 17% 69% D F C A- B A+ A+ C- A+ F F F F F 32% 20% 48% A F C+ A+ A F C+ A+ B
1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35 1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17
Dec
10		 South Florida B F+ F C- F+ 42% 12% 46% A D A D B- C+ A+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ B- 44% 8% 48% C B- F A C+ D C B C+
1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36 1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27
Dec
14		 Charlotte D+ A A- D- B 40% 26% 34% C- B D A C+ D- D F D- B+ F C A+ B+ 28% 16% 56% B+ B+ A A+ A D A F B
1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18 0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21
Dec
17		 The Citadel D+ A+ C D- C+ 33% 12% 55% C- C F A+ F C- A+ B+ A+ D- B B+ F F+ 27% 17% 56% C+ D- C- C C- D+ A+ A A+
1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51 1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10
Dec
21		 Northern Kentucky B C+ A+ C- A- 43% 17% 39% C+ A- C- B- C C- A+ C A+ B C+ D- B- C 35% 14% 51% C C F+ A+ B A+ C F D
1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34 1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25
Dec
29		 Drexel B- A+ C F+ A 33% 28% 39% D A- C+ A+ A D+ C F F+ C C A+ F C- 20% 25% 55% A C+ C B B- D+ D- D+ D-
1.15 87% 38% 28% +6 -1 1.11 33% 1.4 .47 18% .31 56% .17 1.01 56% 18% 42% +1 -2 1.00 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 69% .21
Dec
31		 Elon C+ F A+ C F+ 43% 16% 41% B D- C A B C- A+ A+ A+ C+ C F A+ A- 45% 10% 45% C B+ A+ F B- F C+ A- B-
1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42 1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19
Jan
5		 William & Mary D+ A+ F A- A- 25% 26% 49% F B F+ F F+ F+ A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% A+ A+ C+ C- C F C D- C-
1.07 92% 21% 38% +7 -2 1.13 24% 0.8 .18 23% .46 79% .36 0.96 85% 5% 22% -14 -3 0.69 25% 1.2 .31 7% .33 80% .26
Jan
10		 Hampton B- A+ B- F+ B- 32% 24% 44% D C+ F A+ B- A A+ A- A+ D- D D- A+ C 25% 37% 37% A B- F B- D- F A C+ A
1.18 85% 40% 28% +5 -1 1.10 17% 2.0 .35 13% .55 73% .40 1.11 62% 42% 21% -5 -3 0.86 45% 0.9 .39 13% .25 71% .18
Jan
15		 Towson F F F D- F 36% 14% 50% B- F A- F C- F F D F A A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 25% 46% C- A+ A- F F+ C- C- F F
0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11 0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 Stony Brook A D+ F A C- 46% 19% 35% B- C D A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ F D F F+ F 35% 12% 53% D+ F A F C+ F F A- F
1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39 1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26
Jan
22		 Campbell B- A+ B- A- A- 44% 35% 21% F+ B+ B- D+ C+ D+ A+ B+ A+ D+ D B F F 20% 30% 50% A+ D+ C- F F C A+ B+ A+
1.20 76% 41% 40% +11 -2 1.21 35% 1.1 .38 19% .49 79% .39 1.14 64% 31% 41% +4 -2 1.06 34% 1.8 .60 18% .20 67% .13
Jan
24		 Elon D A+ F F B- 30% 28% 42% D- C B- F D+ F A+ F A A- D- F A+ A 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ B+ D C+ C C+ C- C
1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29 0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Hofstra D F B F F 47% 24% 29% B F B+ C B B- B+ F C A+ A A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% C- A+ F+ A C+ D A+ A+ A+
0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03
Jan
31		 Northeastern A B+ A+ F D+ 58% 13% 28% A- C- D- A C A+ A- B- A- F+ F C+ F F 40% 23% 37% B+ F+ F+ A- C F A+ A+ A+
1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31 1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03
Feb
5		 N.C. A&T D+ A+ C+ F B+ 35% 31% 33% F+ B- D C- D+ F F+ B- D- A- D- A+ C+ B- 23% 30% 47% B+ B- C- A+ B A+ B- F C-
1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18 0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28
Feb
9		 UNC Wilmington F C- B+ F D+ 27% 33% 40% D- D D- A- C- F A+ A A+ C- F A+ C- B- 23% 37% 40% A+ B B F C- F A C A-
0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35 1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 8.2 8.4 2.3 21.5 1st
2nd 0.2 7.1 24.7 16.8 3.4 52.2 2nd
3rd 1.4 10.7 3.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 2.6 5.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 0.3 3.3 5th
6th 0.6 0.8 1.3 6th
7th 0.6 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.6 8.4 20.8 30.2 24.9 11.8 2.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.3    2.0 0.3
14-4 71.4% 8.4    4.8 3.6
13-5 32.7% 8.2    2.4 5.2 0.6
12-6 8.3% 2.5    0.1 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 9.4 10.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.3% 22.1% 22.1% 12.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.8
14-4 11.8% 16.2% 16.2% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 9.9
13-5 24.9% 13.7% 13.7% 13.8 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.5 21.5
12-6 30.2% 11.3% 11.3% 14.1 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 26.8
11-7 20.8% 7.8% 7.8% 14.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 19.1
10-8 8.4% 4.8% 4.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.0
9-9 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 13.9 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.8 27.5 60.8 11.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 0.8%