Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#94
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#141
Pace64.4#311
Improvement-3.2#346

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#71
First Shot+5.1#52
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#203
Layup/Dunks+8.5#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#28
Freethrows-4.7#354
Improvement-3.0#357

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#141
First Shot+2.5#94
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#295
Layups/Dunks+0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#60
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement-0.1#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 36.5% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 11.7 12.5
.500 or above 94.8% 98.8% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 97.7% 94.4%
Conference Champion 41.9% 53.0% 39.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round28.9% 36.3% 27.4%
Second Round5.6% 9.4% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 16.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 510 - 9
Quad 411 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 175 College of Charleston W 90-75 82%     1 - 0 +10.7 +24.8 -12.3
  Sun, Nov 9 122 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 72%     2 - 0 +19.6 +16.0 +4.3
  Mon, Nov 24 185 Vermont W 79-73 76%     3 - 0 +4.3 +5.7 -1.2
  Tue, Nov 25 125 Towson L 69-72 62%     3 - 1 -0.6 +5.0 -5.8
  Wed, Nov 26 115 Bradley L 64-74 58%     3 - 2 -6.6 -0.2 -7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92-50 98%     4 - 2 +21.6 +14.0 +8.9
  Wed, Dec 10 36 @North Carolina St. L 73-83 16%    
  Sat, Dec 20 70 @Dayton L 70-75 30%    
  Sun, Dec 28 189 @Florida International W 77-73 66%    
  Fri, Jan 2 152 Kennesaw St. W 84-76 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 239 Jacksonville St. W 73-60 88%    
  Thu, Jan 8 193 @Louisiana Tech W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 126 @Sam Houston St. W 76-75 51%    
  Thu, Jan 15 127 New Mexico St. W 72-66 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 UTEP W 74-61 87%    
  Wed, Jan 21 128 @Western Kentucky W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 296 Delaware W 79-63 92%    
  Wed, Jan 28 136 @Middle Tennessee W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Feb 4 296 @Delaware W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 255 Missouri St. W 76-62 89%    
  Wed, Feb 11 127 @New Mexico St. W 70-69 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 241 @UTEP W 71-64 73%    
  Thu, Feb 19 189 Florida International W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 128 Western Kentucky W 80-74 71%    
  Thu, Feb 26 152 @Kennesaw St. W 81-79 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 239 @Jacksonville St. W 70-63 73%    
  Thu, Mar 5 193 Louisiana Tech W 72-61 82%    
  Sat, Mar 7 126 Sam Houston St. W 79-73 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.4 9.8 10.5 7.5 3.7 1.0 41.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.3 6.6 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 5.0 4.0 1.3 0.2 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.0 8.9 11.2 13.3 14.4 13.4 11.4 7.7 3.7 1.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 99.9% 3.7    3.6 0.0
18-2 98.2% 7.5    7.2 0.4
17-3 91.9% 10.5    8.9 1.6 0.1
16-4 73.5% 9.8    6.6 2.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 44.7% 6.4    3.0 2.6 0.7 0.1
14-6 18.5% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1
13-7 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.9% 41.9 31.0 8.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 68.8% 64.6% 4.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 11.8%
19-1 3.7% 56.5% 55.1% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.6 3.0%
18-2 7.7% 48.7% 48.5% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 3.9 0.5%
17-3 11.4% 43.0% 43.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.0 0.0 6.5 0.1%
16-4 13.4% 36.9% 36.9% 12.3 0.3 2.9 1.5 0.1 8.4
15-5 14.4% 31.1% 31.1% 12.6 0.1 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.9
14-6 13.3% 25.9% 25.9% 12.8 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 9.9
13-7 11.2% 20.8% 20.8% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 8.8
12-8 8.9% 13.9% 13.9% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.7
11-9 6.0% 9.6% 9.6% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 5.4
10-10 4.1% 8.0% 8.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.7
9-11 2.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
8-12 1.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.9% 28.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.9 12.7 8.7 2.4 0.4 0.1 71.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.1 5.7 11.4 22.9 22.9 22.9 8.6 5.7