Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 224
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 225
Pace 62.7 331
Improvement -3.5 320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #178 C+ D- B- D+ C+
Defense C- #260 C- B- F+ D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 302 61% 104 -1.5 237
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 263 40% 100 -1.2 245
Three Pointers 49% 29 34% 160 +4.7 39
1st FG Attempt 1.06 114 +2.0 113
Second Chance 24.1% 339 0.96 282 0.23 337
Turnovers 15.8% 107
Freethrows 0.27 283 73% 153 0.20 260
Total Offense -0.6 178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 245 60% 240 +0.3 164
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 99 36% 98 -0.4 221
Three Pointers 41% 189 37% 328 -1.8 275
1st FG Attempt 1.06 238 -1.9 238
Second Chance 27.0% 64 1.04 208 0.28 89
Turnovers 12.9% 353
Freethrows 0.33 278 73% 240 0.24 274
Total Defense -2.7 260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 163 -0.4 98
Shot Type Accuracy +1.7 114 +2.2 272
Possession Length 18.8 327 17.3 185
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 363 0.13 62
Improvement -4.8 #356 +1.4 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40% 41% 35%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 98%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 50% 54% 28%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four12% 11% 16%
First Round35% 36% 28%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Away) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 418 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 278 @Brown W 89 - 84 2OT 52% -3  26% 1 - 0 C +1 B- +4 D D+ A C- -3 F A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 15 269 @Northeastern W 85 - 74 49% +0  37% 2 - 0 B- +8 B +6 A+ F C- C+ +2 B F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 202 @Buffalo L 90 - 94 36% -0  40% 2 - 1 C- -4 B+ +8 A+ D C+ F -12 F A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 95 Liberty L 73 - 79 21% -10  1% 2 - 2 C -1 C +0 B- D+ B- C -1 D- B D+
 Tue, Nov 25 116 Rhode Island L 65 - 80 27% -7  11% 2 - 3 D- -12 C- -1 C- B+ C- F -12 D- D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 221 Princeton W 79 - 74 49% +7  69% 3 - 3 C+ +2 A- +10 B+ B B- D- -8 F C- F
 Sun, Nov 30 81 Yale L 74 - 77 25% -3  19% 3 - 4 C +1 B +5 A D D- D+ -5 B A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 178 @Oregon St. L 58 - 80 31% -16  0% 3 - 5 F -20 F+ -9 D+ F C F -14 F B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 291 @Pepperdine W 65 - 56 55% +1  35% 4 - 5 C+ +4 D+ -3 B F C- A- +8 B A C+
 Sun, Dec 14 182 Merrimack W 66 - 59 54% +7  98% 5 - 5 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- D- A+ C+ +1 B- C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 181 Siena W 83 - 69 54% +12  93% 6 - 5 B +10 B- +5 B C A+ B +5 B+ A- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 247 Iona L 78 - 83 66% -0  41% 6 - 6 D- -13 C+ +2 C D- A+ F -15 D F F
 Tue, Dec 30 221 @Princeton L 69 - 75 OT 38% -4  10% 6 - 7 D+ -6 D+ -3 D- B C- C- -3 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 327 @New Hampshire W 80 - 61 66% +9  87% 7 - 7 1 - 0 B+ +12 A- +11 A C+ B+ B- +3 D C+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 361 Binghamton W 60 - 59 93% -1  32% 8 - 7 2 - 0 F -19 F -16 D- F D+ C- -2 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 338 Maine W 67 - 62 85% -1  30% 9 - 7 3 - 0 D -10 D+ -3 B- F A+ D -6 A- C+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 325 @Albany L 68 - 75 65% -3  36% 9 - 8 3 - 1 D- -14 F+ -10 C- F F D+ -5 D- A F
 Thu, Jan 22 318 @Umass Lowell W 77 - 68 63% +5  82% 10 - 8 4 - 1 C+ +2 C +1 B- F B C+ +1 B D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 342 @Bryant W 62 - 52 71% +8  98% 11 - 8 5 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 D C- B C+ +1 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 259 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 64 - 55 70% +2  66% 12 - 8 6 - 1 C +0 F+ -10 C- F C- A +11 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 315 NJIT L 77 - 79 80% -9  1% 12 - 9 6 - 2 D- -14 C- -2 D C B+ F -12 F D F
 Thu, Feb 5 338 @Maine L 70 - 76 70% -9  3% 12 - 10 6 - 3 F+ -15 C+ +2 C A F+ F -18 F C D-
 Sat, Feb 7 327 New Hampshire W 80 - 57 83% +18  94% 13 - 10 7 - 3 B +10 C+ +3 A+ F C- B+ +8 B A C
 Thu, Feb 12 361 @Binghamton W 74 - 64 84%
 Sat, Feb 14 342 Bryant W 74 - 62 87%
 Thu, Feb 19 259 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 315 @NJIT W 72 - 69 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 318 Umass Lowell W 78 - 69 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 325 Albany W 76 - 66 83%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 5 -3 C -1 C+ D- B- C- -3 C- B- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C+ C+ C+ 34% 16% 49% C+ C+ D- D+ D- B- D+ C+ D+ C- C- B- D D+ 37% 23% 41% B- C- B C B- F+ D+ C- D+
1.08 61% 40% 34% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.0 .23 16% .27 73% .20 1.12 60% 36% 37% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .28 13% .33 73% .20
Nov
9		 Brown B- D- C+ D D+ 33% 21% 45% C- D D C+ D+ A C- A+ B- C- C+ C F F 44% 15% 42% D+ F A- A+ A+ F+ F A+ C-
1.09 50% 43% 30% -4 0 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 12% .31 86% .27 1.03 52% 33% 42% +2 +1 1.08 22% 0.7 .16 16% .35 54% .19
Nov
15		 Northeastern B D+ F A+ A 55% 6% 39% A A+ F D- F C- F A+ F C+ B- A+ F B 46% 27% 27% B+ B D+ F F A- F F F
1.22 57% 33% 60% +15 +3 1.37 22% 0.8 .19 19% .21 83% .18 1.06 55% 15% 46% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.4 .42 21% .38 76% .29
Nov
18		 Buffalo B+ B- A A+ A 43% 8% 49% B+ A+ F A+ D C+ A A A+ F F F F F 41% 16% 43% C- F A A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30 1.29 70% 50% 43% +13 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48
Nov
24		 Liberty C B- A C+ B 34% 20% 46% C B- F+ A D+ B- B- C+ B- C D- B F D- 50% 6% 44% C- D- A F B D+ D- A+ B-
1.08 59% 50% 35% +3 0 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 16% .27 73% .20 1.17 69% 33% 43% +12 +3 1.31 10% 1.3 .14 12% .30 50% .15
Nov
25		 Rhode Island C- B A+ F D+ 29% 9% 62% C+ C- D+ A+ B+ C- A+ C- A F F+ A+ C D+ 52% 5% 43% F D- F B+ D- D F B F
1.02 62% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.4 .39 22% .46 70% .32 1.25 68% 0% 33% +3 +3 1.14 48% 0.8 .39 17% .72 68% .49
Nov
26		 Princeton A- C A+ D A- 38% 21% 40% C- B+ C A B B- F+ D+ F+ D- F C C- F 21% 25% 55% A F A F C- F A A+ A+
1.24 60% 73% 29% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.3 .39 13% .23 69% .16 1.16 91% 38% 34% +7 -2 1.13 19% 1.6 .30 8% .20 33% .07
Nov
30		 Yale B A+ A B- A 28% 14% 58% C+ A C+ F D D- A+ A- A+ D+ D+ C B B 44% 25% 31% B- B A+ D A- F D C D
1.19 83% 50% 36% +11 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 18% .43 77% .33 1.24 62% 42% 33% +2 0 1.06 23% 1.3 .30 5% .37 77% .29
Dec
3		 Oregon St. F+ B F C C- 33% 29% 38% F D+ C+ F F C F B- F+ F F+ D- F F 22% 22% 56% A- F B- A B+ D- A+ F A-
0.93 63% 21% 33% -4 -1 0.92 34% 0.5 .16 14% .24 77% .19 1.29 64% 45% 50% +16 -1 1.32 23% 1.0 .23 14% .24 92% .23
Dec
6		 Pepperdine D+ B+ F B B 38% 6% 56% B- B F F F C- D F F+ A- C+ A+ B- B+ 28% 15% 58% C- B B A+ A C+ F F F
1.04 67% 0% 37% +4 +2 1.13 23% 0.6 .13 18% .21 64% .14 0.90 55% 17% 30% -7 0 0.88 24% 0.5 .12 19% .40 85% .34
Dec
14		 Merrimack C+ A A F D+ 38% 19% 43% C+ C- D- D D- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A F A- B+ 48% 11% 41% D B- D+ C C- C- C+ D C
1.13 69% 50% 17% -5 0 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 12% .47 83% .39 1.01 43% 60% 28% -8 +2 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 15% .32 81% .26
Dec
17		 Siena B- A+ A F+ B 40% 15% 45% B B F A+ C A+ B A A- B A+ C+ C- B+ 31% 39% 31% A B+ B A+ A- F+ A- F B-
1.19 76% 50% 29% +6 +1 1.15 20% 1.5 .30 11% .32 80% .26 0.99 44% 39% 33% -4 -3 0.88 27% 0.7 .20 13% .21 85% .18
Dec
20		 Iona C+ A+ D- D C+ 32% 22% 46% D C F C+ D- A+ D- F+ D- F F D- A F+ 35% 35% 29% A+ D A- F F F F D+ F
1.15 74% 31% 30% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 7% .22 64% .14 1.22 78% 44% 27% +6 -2 1.10 19% 2.2 .41 9% .39 71% .27
Dec
30		 Princeton D+ F+ D- D- F+ 46% 12% 42% B+ D- C+ A- B C- D+ A+ C+ C- F A+ F F 25% 17% 58% B- F B+ A+ A+ C- D+ F F+
1.03 50% 33% 27% -8 +2 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 15% .28 81% .23 1.11 67% 13% 46% +9 0 1.19 21% 0.6 .12 16% .34 84% .28
Jan
3		 New Hampshire A- B A+ B+ A 38% 21% 40% C- A D A C+ B+ F A+ F B- A+ D F F+ 32% 21% 47% A- D B- C- C+ B A- F B-
1.25 65% 55% 38% +9 0 1.19 28% 1.3 .34 12% .16 89% .14 0.95 40% 40% 41% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.0 .23 22% .20 80% .16
Jan
8		 Binghamton F B- F C F+ 50% 18% 32% C+ D- F F F D+ A+ F C+ C- A+ F C F+ 24% 39% 37% A+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+
0.98 64% 13% 36% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.9 .20 13% .45 54% .24 0.96 42% 55% 32% +2 -3 0.98 15% 0.0 .00 11% .26 64% .17
Jan
15		 Maine D+ C+ A- B- B- 38% 19% 43% C B- F A+ F A+ D- C+ D D A A+ A- A 45% 16% 39% F+ A- A- F C+ F F F F
1.08 61% 44% 35% +3 0 1.09 14% 1.5 .21 13% .26 71% .19 1.00 45% 25% 26% -12 +1 0.80 13% 1.4 .18 3% .42 72% .30
Jan
19		 Albany F+ B- F C D+ 41% 14% 45% B- C- F D+ F F D D+ D D+ C B+ F F+ 38% 18% 44% C D- A+ B A F F F F
1.00 62% 14% 35% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.1 .24 19% .27 73% .20 1.10 58% 33% 41% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.8 .16 13% .40 75% .30
Jan
22		 Umass Lowell C C- A+ B B- 46% 18% 37% C B- F+ F F B F A+ F C+ B A+ D C+ 23% 35% 42% A+ B C F D- C B- F D+
1.14 58% 60% 38% +6 +1 1.16 24% 0.5 .12 10% .13 88% .12 1.01 50% 28% 36% -4 -3 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 21% .28 80% .22
Jan
24		 Bryant C+ D+ D+ C C- 28% 23% 50% F D A F C- B A+ B- A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 44% A+ A+ D- F F F F F+ F
1.17 55% 33% 35% -1 -1 0.98 46% 0.7 .31 11% .43 75% .32 0.98 58% 20% 6% -23 -1 0.54 31% 1.3 .40 15% .49 82% .40
Jan
29		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F+ F A+ B- C- 27% 13% 60% C- C- F F F C- A+ F A+ A C A+ A+ A+ 26% 21% 53% B- A+ A F C+ F F B- F
1.00 42% 67% 37% +2 0 1.07 15% 0.6 .09 14% .40 59% .24 0.86 58% 20% 20% -15 -1 0.70 14% 1.4 .19 11% .37 71% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 NJIT C- C- B F F+ 45% 9% 45% A- D C- B C B+ B+ D B- F C+ F F+ F 47% 23% 30% F+ F D- D+ D F C F D+
1.11 56% 40% 24% -7 +2 0.91 32% 1.2 .37 12% .41 68% .28 1.14 52% 50% 38% +2 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .31 13% .31 79% .25
Feb
5		 Maine C+ D+ A+ C- C- 36% 9% 56% B C C A+ A F+ A+ D A- F D- D- F F 40% 21% 40% C- F B F C D- F B F
1.11 56% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 38% 1.4 .53 22% .43 67% .29 1.21 65% 44% 53% +15 0 1.33 16% 1.3 .20 17% .44 61% .27
Feb
7		 New Hampshire C+ B- D+ A+ A+ 30% 6% 65% B A+ D F F C- F A- F B+ A C+ B A- 57% 6% 36% F B A B+ A C F B+ F
1.18 63% 33% 43% +10 +1 1.24 28% 0.4 .11 16% .19 82% .16 0.84 41% 33% 29% -13 +3 0.83 17% 0.8 .14 19% .40 64% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 7.6 25.1 16.3 49.6 1st
2nd 0.2 5.3 17.6 9.5 32.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 8.1 5.3 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.4 3.9 14.2 30.5 34.7 16.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 16.3    14.4 1.9
12-4 72.4% 25.1    12.5 11.0 1.5
11-5 25.0% 7.6    1.3 3.9 2.4 0.1
10-6 3.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 49.6% 49.6 28.2 16.9 4.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 16.3% 49.4% 49.4% 14.7 0.2 2.5 4.9 0.5 8.3
12-4 34.7% 41.8% 41.8% 15.6 0.4 4.8 9.3 20.2
11-5 30.5% 37.8% 37.8% 15.8 0.1 2.0 9.4 19.0
10-6 14.2% 32.9% 32.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.3 9.5
9-7 3.9% 26.2% 26.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0 2.9
8-8 0.4% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.1 0.4
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 39.8% 39.8% 0.0% 15.5 60.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 14.7 2.9 30.4 60.3 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%