Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#189
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#197
Pace63.4#325
Improvement-1.7#301

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#112
First Shot+5.3#49
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#329
Layup/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#28
Freethrows-1.1#241
Improvement-1.7#312

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#324
First Shot-6.1#347
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#85
Layups/Dunks-2.9#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#288
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement+0.0#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.8% 41.1% 35.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 89.6% 94.1% 82.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 96.9% 94.3%
Conference Champion 57.4% 61.1% 51.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four10.5% 8.8% 13.0%
First Round33.9% 37.0% 29.3%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 417 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 225 @Brown W 89-84 2OT 45%     1 - 0 +4.2 +7.4 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 15 227 @Northeastern W 85-74 46%     2 - 0 +10.0 +13.5 -3.5
  Tue, Nov 18 215 @Buffalo L 90-94 43%     2 - 1 -4.3 +11.5 -15.6
  Mon, Nov 24 98 Liberty L 73-79 25%     2 - 2 -1.0 +3.7 -4.9
  Tue, Nov 25 110 Rhode Island L 65-80 28%     2 - 3 -11.1 +0.9 -13.3
  Wed, Nov 26 247 Princeton W 79-74 60%     3 - 3 +0.3 +13.4 -12.6
  Sun, Nov 30 73 Yale L 74-77 26%     3 - 4 +1.7 +8.3 -7.0
  Wed, Dec 3 163 @Oregon St. L 58-80 33%     3 - 5 -19.6 -6.9 -15.5
  Sat, Dec 6 298 @Pepperdine W 73-70 60%    
  Sun, Dec 14 277 Merrimack W 73-66 75%    
  Wed, Dec 17 161 Siena W 71-70 54%    
  Sat, Dec 20 174 Iona W 79-77 57%    
  Tue, Dec 30 247 @Princeton L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Jan 3 344 @New Hampshire W 74-68 71%    
  Thu, Jan 8 349 Binghamton W 78-65 87%    
  Thu, Jan 15 326 Maine W 71-61 82%    
  Mon, Jan 19 324 @Albany W 75-71 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 314 @Umass Lowell W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 295 @Bryant W 72-70 59%    
  Thu, Jan 29 272 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 351 NJIT W 79-66 88%    
  Thu, Feb 5 326 @Maine W 68-64 64%    
  Sat, Feb 7 344 New Hampshire W 77-65 86%    
  Thu, Feb 12 349 @Binghamton W 75-68 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 295 Bryant W 75-67 77%    
  Thu, Feb 19 272 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-73 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 351 @NJIT W 76-69 74%    
  Thu, Feb 26 314 Umass Lowell W 80-71 80%    
  Tue, Mar 3 324 Albany W 78-68 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 5.3 11.5 15.7 13.4 7.8 2.7 57.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.8 7.8 5.4 1.5 0.2 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.4 4.4 1.5 0.2 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 5.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.5 7.3 11.1 14.7 17.0 17.2 13.6 7.8 2.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
15-1 100.0% 7.8    7.8 0.0
14-2 98.5% 13.4    12.7 0.7
13-3 91.2% 15.7    12.7 2.9 0.1
12-4 67.2% 11.5    6.8 4.0 0.6 0.0
11-5 36.0% 5.3    1.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 9.3% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 57.4% 57.4 44.5 10.4 2.0 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.7% 65.3% 65.3% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9
15-1 7.8% 57.1% 57.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.5 0.3 3.3
14-2 13.6% 52.5% 52.5% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 1.7 6.5
13-3 17.2% 45.7% 45.7% 15.3 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.5 9.3
12-4 17.0% 39.7% 39.7% 15.6 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 10.3
11-5 14.7% 31.9% 31.9% 15.8 0.1 0.7 3.9 10.0
10-6 11.1% 28.3% 28.3% 15.9 0.2 2.9 7.9
9-7 7.3% 22.1% 22.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6 5.7
8-8 4.5% 19.1% 19.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 3.7
7-9 2.3% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.3 1.9
6-10 1.2% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.1 1.1
5-11 0.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.5 1.4 5.3 11.7 19.9 61.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.1 11.9 68.6 14.4 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%