Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#178
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#176
Pace62.8#338
Improvement+0.3#159

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#115
First Shot+5.1#58
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#340
Layup/Dunks+1.4#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#42
Freethrows-0.6#226
Improvement-1.1#262

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#294
First Shot-4.6#328
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#103
Layups/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#244
Freethrows-1.1#266
Improvement+1.5#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.0% 49.8% 43.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 98.2% 99.4% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.2% 98.3%
Conference Champion 69.6% 73.2% 65.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four6.8% 4.7% 9.2%
First Round43.8% 47.5% 39.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Away) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 419 - 521 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 226 @Brown W 89-84 2OT 49%     1 - 0 +4.0 +7.3 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 15 205 @Northeastern W 85-74 44%     2 - 0 +11.1 +12.6 -1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 196 @Buffalo L 90-94 42%     2 - 1 -3.3 +11.0 -14.2
  Mon, Nov 24 102 Liberty L 73-79 27%     2 - 2 -1.1 +4.5 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 25 119 Rhode Island L 65-80 34%     2 - 3 -11.9 +0.3 -13.7
  Wed, Nov 26 248 Princeton W 79-74 64%     3 - 3 +0.0 +13.4 -12.9
  Sun, Nov 30 76 Yale L 74-77 29%     3 - 4 +1.3 +8.1 -7.3
  Wed, Dec 3 154 @Oregon St. L 58-80 33%     3 - 5 -18.6 -5.9 -15.5
  Sat, Dec 6 262 @Pepperdine W 65-56 55%     4 - 5 +6.4 +0.9 +6.6
  Sun, Dec 14 263 Merrimack W 66-59 76%     5 - 5 -1.7 +3.2 -3.4
  Wed, Dec 17 179 Siena W 83-69 62%     6 - 5 +9.6 +9.7 -0.1
  Sat, Dec 20 165 Iona L 78-83 58%     6 - 6 -8.4 +5.4 -13.9
  Tue, Dec 30 248 @Princeton W 70-69 53%    
  Sat, Jan 3 335 @New Hampshire W 73-67 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 363 Binghamton W 81-63 95%    
  Thu, Jan 15 342 Maine W 72-59 89%    
  Mon, Jan 19 310 @Albany W 75-71 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 304 @Umass Lowell W 78-74 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 311 @Bryant W 72-68 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 292 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-68 79%    
  Sat, Jan 31 353 NJIT W 78-63 92%    
  Thu, Feb 5 342 @Maine W 69-62 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 335 New Hampshire W 76-64 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 363 @Binghamton W 78-66 85%    
  Sat, Feb 14 311 Bryant W 75-65 83%    
  Thu, Feb 19 292 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 353 @NJIT W 75-66 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 304 Umass Lowell W 81-71 81%    
  Tue, Mar 3 310 Albany W 78-68 83%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.4 12.0 18.0 18.1 12.2 4.4 69.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.6 5.2 1.8 0.2 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.2 7.8 12.7 17.5 19.8 18.3 12.2 4.4 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
15-1 100.0% 12.2    12.1 0.1
14-2 98.7% 18.1    17.1 1.0
13-3 90.8% 18.0    14.7 3.2 0.1
12-4 68.6% 12.0    7.1 4.3 0.6 0.0
11-5 34.5% 4.4    1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
10-6 8.6% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 69.6% 69.6 56.6 10.8 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.4% 66.7% 66.7% 13.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5
15-1 12.2% 61.6% 61.6% 14.2 0.0 1.2 3.6 2.6 0.1 4.7
14-2 18.3% 54.7% 54.7% 14.8 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.6 1.5 8.3
13-3 19.8% 49.7% 49.7% 15.3 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.7 10.0
12-4 17.5% 44.2% 44.2% 15.6 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.7 9.7
11-5 12.7% 37.8% 37.8% 15.7 0.1 1.1 3.6 7.9
10-6 7.8% 30.8% 30.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.4
9-7 4.2% 28.1% 28.1% 15.9 0.1 1.1 3.0
8-8 2.1% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 0.5 1.6
7-9 0.8% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.2 0.7
6-10 0.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 47.0% 47.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.4 17.5 17.5 53.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.7 3.7 33.3 52.0 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%