Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#209
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#181
Pace59.3#357
Improvement+4.1#34

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#285
First Shot-1.6#222
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#319
Layup/Dunks-4.1#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#87
Freethrows+0.2#159
Improvement+4.2#23

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#124
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#55
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement-0.1#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 19.8% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 4.3% 5.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 1.4% 5.2%
First Round17.5% 19.1% 13.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 34 - 6
Quad 415 - 719 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 102   @ UAB W 67-62 18%     1 - 0 +12.2 -0.2 +13.0
  Nov 06, 2024 2   @ Auburn L 43-94 1%     1 - 1 -23.2 -18.5 -4.9
  Nov 09, 2024 206   @ Merrimack L 51-65 39%     1 - 2 -13.7 -13.0 -2.1
  Nov 15, 2024 250   @ Iona L 59-62 49%     1 - 3 -5.2 -8.9 +3.6
  Nov 19, 2024 343   Buffalo W 78-67 87%     2 - 3 -3.9 +5.6 -8.6
  Nov 23, 2024 264   Delaware W 75-71 62%     3 - 3 -1.7 -3.1 +1.4
  Nov 24, 2024 331   Fairfield L 66-67 78%     3 - 4 -11.5 -4.8 -6.8
  Nov 30, 2024 207   Northeastern W 68-64 60%     4 - 4 -1.2 -4.5 +3.4
  Dec 03, 2024 203   Brown L 53-60 59%     4 - 5 -11.9 -8.5 -5.0
  Dec 07, 2024 76   @ Yale L 50-65 12%     4 - 6 -5.0 -13.9 +7.2
  Dec 15, 2024 260   @ Colgate L 60-65 51%     4 - 7 -7.7 -8.6 +0.3
  Dec 18, 2024 166   Miami (OH) W 75-67 52%     5 - 7 +5.0 +0.9 +4.1
  Dec 21, 2024 173   @ Dartmouth L 54-84 33%     5 - 8 -27.9 -12.6 -16.5
  Jan 04, 2025 352   @ New Hampshire W 60-40 77%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +9.6 -8.5 +20.8
  Jan 09, 2025 230   @ Umass Lowell W 67-63 44%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +3.0 -5.3 +8.5
  Jan 11, 2025 158   @ Bryant L 53-73 30%     7 - 9 2 - 1 -17.0 -11.1 -8.5
  Jan 16, 2025 304   Binghamton W 72-64 79%     8 - 9 3 - 1 -2.9 +5.2 -6.9
  Jan 23, 2025 353   NJIT W 68-64 89%     9 - 9 4 - 1 -12.2 -9.1 -3.0
  Jan 25, 2025 299   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 63-80 78%     9 - 10 4 - 2 -27.6 -13.8 -15.1
  Jan 30, 2025 304   @ Binghamton L 72-75 61%     9 - 11 4 - 3 -8.5 -0.6 -8.0
  Feb 01, 2025 224   Maine W 55-49 63%     10 - 11 5 - 3 +0.1 -8.9 +10.1
  Feb 08, 2025 263   @ Albany W 68-62 51%     11 - 11 6 - 3 +3.1 +5.6 -1.4
  Feb 13, 2025 352   New Hampshire W 79-59 89%     12 - 11 7 - 3 +4.1 +8.9 -2.5
  Feb 15, 2025 224   @ Maine W 65-61 42%     13 - 11 8 - 3 +3.5 +1.7 +2.3
  Feb 20, 2025 158   Bryant W 59-55 50%     14 - 11 9 - 3 +1.6 -8.9 +10.9
  Feb 22, 2025 230   Umass Lowell W 85-61 65%     15 - 11 10 - 3 +17.6 +22.1 +0.0
  Feb 27, 2025 353   @ NJIT W 71-61 78%     16 - 11 11 - 3 -0.8 -0.3 +0.2
  Mar 01, 2025 299   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 79-69 60%     17 - 11 12 - 3 +4.9 +9.1 -3.0
  Mar 04, 2025 263   Albany W 68-62 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 4.3 4.3 1st
2nd 27.9 67.9 95.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 27.9 72.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 5.9% 4.3    4.3
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 4.3% 4.3 4.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 72.1% 19.8% 19.8% 15.3 0.0 0.6 8.3 5.4 57.8
12-4 27.9% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8 0.0 0.8 3.6 23.5
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.6 9.1 9.0 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.3% 100.0% 15.3 0.1 4.1 58.0 37.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.5%
Lose Out 10.5%