Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#198
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#237
Pace65.7#247
Improvement+6.6#7

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#214
First Shot+2.7#102
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#353
Layup/Dunks-1.3#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#24
Freethrows-4.5#360
Improvement+3.3#31

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#185
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#93
Layups/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#286
Freethrows+2.2#46
Improvement+3.3#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.7% 32.6% 28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 66.1% 72.2% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 97.9%
Conference Champion 71.4% 77.5% 53.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.8% 9.4% 15.0%
First Round27.6% 29.1% 23.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 415 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 193   @ Drexel L 56-73 38%     0 - 1 -15.6 -11.3 -5.4
  Nov 12, 2024 103   @ Syracuse L 72-74 21%     0 - 2 +4.7 +2.6 +2.1
  Nov 18, 2024 93   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 16%     0 - 3 -14.2 -21.5 +7.9
  Nov 22, 2024 215   @ Harvard L 67-78 44%     0 - 4 -11.2 -1.0 -10.7
  Nov 27, 2024 141   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-59 28%     1 - 4 +17.3 +11.7 +7.7
  Nov 29, 2024 123   Appalachian St. L 50-72 34%     1 - 5 -19.4 -9.0 -14.6
  Nov 30, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. L 78-82 45%     1 - 6 -4.4 +8.4 -13.0
  Dec 04, 2024 134   Cornell L 57-84 47%     1 - 7 -28.0 -16.9 -12.5
  Dec 08, 2024 200   @ Northeastern L 75-78 40%     1 - 8 -2.1 +2.7 -4.7
  Dec 11, 2024 15   @ Kentucky L 67-78 4%     1 - 9 +8.3 +2.3 +5.5
  Dec 15, 2024 211   Vermont W 65-60 64%     2 - 9 -0.4 +1.1 -0.9
  Dec 22, 2024 253   Iona L 73-79 73%     2 - 10 -14.0 +0.9 -15.0
  Jan 02, 2025 305   Army W 71-59 80%     3 - 10 1 - 0 +1.3 -5.6 +7.2
  Jan 05, 2025 265   @ Bucknell L 60-66 56%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -9.2 -4.7 -5.1
  Jan 08, 2025 296   Lehigh W 67-62 80%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -5.4 -9.7 +4.3
  Jan 11, 2025 282   Boston University W 87-50 78%     5 - 11 3 - 1 +27.3 +16.0 +13.5
  Jan 15, 2025 291   @ Navy W 73-66 62%     6 - 11 4 - 1 +2.3 -0.9 +3.4
  Jan 18, 2025 276   @ Lafayette W 90-67 58%     7 - 11 5 - 1 +19.3 +18.3 +1.2
  Jan 20, 2025 265   Bucknell W 70-63 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 236   @ American L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 305   @ Army W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 276   Lafayette W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 03, 2025 296   @ Lehigh W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 315   Loyola Maryland W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 12, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 282   @ Boston University W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 291   Navy W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 315   @ Loyola Maryland W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 76-66 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 236   American W 68-63 69%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 7.5 17.5 19.3 15.4 8.3 2.1 71.4 1st
2nd 0.8 4.7 6.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.3 0.3 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.0 9.6 15.1 21.9 20.1 15.4 8.3 2.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1
16-2 100.0% 8.3    8.3 0.0
15-3 99.7% 15.4    15.1 0.3
14-4 95.7% 19.3    16.7 2.6 0.1
13-5 79.7% 17.5    11.4 5.5 0.6
12-6 49.5% 7.5    2.7 3.5 1.2 0.2
11-7 14.1% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1
10-8 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 71.4% 71.4 56.2 12.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.1% 52.4% 52.4% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0
16-2 8.3% 41.3% 41.3% 14.6 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.2 4.9
15-3 15.4% 40.1% 40.1% 15.2 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.8 9.2
14-4 20.1% 31.8% 31.8% 15.6 0.1 2.4 3.9 13.7
13-5 21.9% 30.5% 30.5% 15.8 1.2 5.5 15.2
12-6 15.1% 27.7% 27.7% 16.0 0.1 4.1 10.9
11-7 9.6% 23.2% 23.2% 16.0 2.2 7.3
10-8 5.0% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 1.1 3.9
9-9 1.8% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.3 1.5
8-10 0.6% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.1 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.7% 31.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.6 2.7 9.2 19.1 68.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 13.5 6.4 42.2 49.5 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%