Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#224
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#265
Pace64.4#297
Improvement+2.1#55

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#215
First Shot+2.1#122
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#348
Layup/Dunks-2.1#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#16
Freethrows-4.7#359
Improvement+2.5#25

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#222
First Shot-2.4#253
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#123
Layups/Dunks+1.2#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#312
Freethrows+1.9#61
Improvement-0.4#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 19.4% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 37.1% 43.7% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 83.7% 76.5%
Conference Champion 25.5% 27.8% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.0% 3.7%
First Four7.9% 7.3% 9.2%
First Round14.7% 16.2% 11.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 413 - 715 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 153   @ Drexel L 56-73 26%     0 - 1 -13.7 -11.5 -3.2
  Nov 12, 2024 97   @ Syracuse L 72-74 14%     0 - 2 +6.4 +1.8 +4.6
  Nov 18, 2024 79   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 11%     0 - 3 -12.9 -20.1 +7.8
  Nov 22, 2024 232   @ Harvard L 67-78 40%     0 - 4 -11.8 -0.9 -11.5
  Nov 27, 2024 142   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-59 24%     1 - 4 +17.0 +12.0 +7.1
  Nov 29, 2024 171   Appalachian St. L 50-72 40%     1 - 5 -22.7 -10.7 -16.2
  Nov 30, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. L 78-82 30%     1 - 6 -2.0 +9.6 -11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 121   Cornell L 57-84 39%     1 - 7 -27.4 -15.8 -13.1
  Dec 08, 2024 158   @ Northeastern L 75-78 27%     1 - 8 +0.0 +4.5 -4.5
  Dec 11, 2024 11   @ Kentucky L 67-78 2%     1 - 9 +9.4 +4.6 +4.3
  Dec 15, 2024 194   Vermont W 65-60 55%     2 - 9 +0.4 +1.3 -0.3
  Dec 22, 2024 257   Iona W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 305   Army W 72-65 76%    
  Jan 05, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 08, 2025 246   Lehigh W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 252   Boston University W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 15, 2025 301   @ Navy W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 239   @ Lafayette L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 20, 2025 260   Bucknell W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 237   @ American L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 305   @ Army W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 239   Lafayette W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 03, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 319   Loyola Maryland W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 330   @ Holy Cross W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 252   @ Boston University L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 301   Navy W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 319   @ Loyola Maryland W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 330   Holy Cross W 75-65 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 237   American W 68-64 63%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.2 6.9 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.2 25.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.4 7.3 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.7 6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.9 8.0 10.9 13.4 14.4 14.1 11.4 8.5 5.2 2.4 0.9 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 99.4% 2.4    2.3 0.1
15-3 95.1% 5.0    4.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 81.7% 6.9    5.0 1.8 0.1
13-5 54.3% 6.2    3.1 2.5 0.6 0.0
12-6 23.7% 3.4    0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.5% 25.5 16.8 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 48.1% 48.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 45.0% 45.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.4% 42.1% 42.1% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.4
15-3 5.2% 35.6% 35.6% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 3.4
14-4 8.5% 30.6% 30.6% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 5.9
13-5 11.4% 25.6% 25.6% 15.6 0.1 1.1 1.7 8.5
12-6 14.1% 21.3% 21.3% 15.8 0.5 2.5 11.1
11-7 14.4% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.1 2.4 12.0
10-8 13.4% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9 11.6
9-9 10.9% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 1.1 9.8
8-10 8.0% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.5 7.5
7-11 4.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 4.7
6-12 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.6 11.6 81.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.4 10.0 40.0 46.7 3.3