American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#237
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#181
Pace59.9#355
Improvement+2.7#37

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#211
First Shot+2.3#117
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#349
Layup/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#23
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement+0.4#143

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#254
First Shot-2.8#273
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#159
Layups/Dunks-8.0#359
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#2
Freethrows-2.6#329
Improvement+2.3#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 20.9% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 64.3% 83.2% 61.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 83.8% 73.5%
Conference Champion 21.7% 29.4% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.6% 4.6%
First Four4.1% 2.7% 4.3%
First Round13.7% 19.5% 12.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 415 - 816 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 155   @ La Salle L 52-65 24%     0 - 1 -9.7 -9.2 -2.9
  Nov 10, 2024 232   Harvard W 67-55 61%     1 - 1 +5.2 -0.6 +7.0
  Nov 12, 2024 283   @ Siena L 66-74 48%     1 - 2 -11.6 +4.6 -17.6
  Nov 15, 2024 18   @ North Carolina L 55-107 3%     1 - 3 -34.3 -13.3 -18.1
  Nov 18, 2024 134   @ High Point L 73-80 21%     1 - 4 -2.6 +13.4 -17.4
  Nov 22, 2024 271   UMKC W 64-60 57%     2 - 4 -1.9 -8.0 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2024 248   Albany W 81-77 53%     3 - 4 -0.8 +2.6 -3.5
  Dec 04, 2024 144   George Washington W 81-71 OT 43%     4 - 4 +7.7 -2.5 +9.1
  Dec 18, 2024 103   @ Saint Joseph's L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 22, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 51-64 12%    
  Dec 29, 2024 255   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-73 66%    
  Jan 02, 2025 301   @ Navy W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 05, 2025 330   Holy Cross W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 08, 2025 252   @ Boston University L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 260   Bucknell W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 13, 2025 319   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 330   @ Holy Cross W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 22, 2025 246   Lehigh W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 224   Colgate W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 239   @ Lafayette L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 305   Army W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 10, 2025 239   Lafayette W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 319   Loyola Maryland W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 305   @ Army W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 252   Boston University W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 301   Navy W 72-65 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 224   @ Colgate L 64-68 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.7 5.8 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 21.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.2 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.9 6.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 5.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.9 9.3 11.7 13.2 13.3 12.1 10.2 7.2 4.3 2.0 0.8 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 99.1% 2.0    1.9 0.0
15-3 94.5% 4.1    3.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 81.2% 5.8    4.2 1.5 0.1
13-5 56.1% 5.7    2.8 2.3 0.6 0.0
12-6 22.0% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 14.0 5.7 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 57.6% 57.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 43.8% 43.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 41.0% 41.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.3% 35.5% 35.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 2.8
14-4 7.2% 28.9% 28.9% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.3 5.1
13-5 10.2% 25.3% 25.3% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 7.6
12-6 12.1% 20.6% 20.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 9.6
11-7 13.3% 15.8% 15.8% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.6 11.2
10-8 13.2% 12.4% 12.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 11.6
9-9 11.7% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 10.6
8-10 9.3% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.8
7-11 6.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.3 6.6
6-12 4.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.3
5-13 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.2 7.8 84.3 0.0%