High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#105
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#119
Pace67.8#206
Improvement+1.8#103

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#33
First Shot+5.5#50
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#96
Layup/Dunks+0.2#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#90
Freethrows+3.6#22
Improvement+2.0#77

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#271
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#307
Layups/Dunks-1.3#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.2% 42.0% 36.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 98.1%
Conference Champion 64.3% 67.4% 43.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round41.2% 42.0% 36.1%
Second Round4.5% 4.7% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 36 - 47 - 5
Quad 417 - 324 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 93-51 98%     1 - 0 +22.2 +13.1 +8.5
  Nov 09, 2024 278   Jackson St. W 80-71 88%     2 - 0 -0.3 +5.2 -5.5
  Nov 12, 2024 306   NC Central W 76-60 90%     3 - 0 +5.3 +8.6 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 97   UAB W 68-65 55%     4 - 0 +5.5 -5.0 +10.5
  Nov 18, 2024 236   American W 80-73 84%     5 - 0 +0.0 +19.5 -18.1
  Nov 24, 2024 244   Missouri St. L 61-71 78%     5 - 1 -14.6 -10.0 -5.1
  Nov 25, 2024 283   Old Dominion W 73-67 84%     6 - 1 -1.1 +6.6 -6.9
  Nov 26, 2024 256   Hampton W 76-73 80%     7 - 1 -2.4 +15.2 -17.0
  Dec 03, 2024 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-72 45%     7 - 2 +0.8 +9.7 -9.6
  Dec 06, 2024 65   North Texas W 76-71 42%     8 - 2 +10.7 +7.8 +2.9
  Dec 14, 2024 123   Appalachian St. W 65-59 54%     9 - 2 +8.6 -4.4 +12.9
  Dec 21, 2024 190   @ Southern Illinois W 94-81 59%     10 - 2 +14.5 +20.6 -6.4
  Dec 29, 2024 182   Norfolk St. L 74-77 76%     10 - 3 -6.6 +7.0 -14.0
  Jan 02, 2025 204   Radford W 76-58 79%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +13.1 +13.9 +2.6
  Jan 04, 2025 187   @ UNC Asheville L 99-103 58%     11 - 4 1 - 1 -2.4 +12.7 -14.8
  Jan 08, 2025 279   @ Charleston Southern W 93-79 77%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +10.1 +20.0 -9.8
  Jan 11, 2025 239   Gardner-Webb W 96-55 84%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +33.9 +16.9 +16.0
  Jan 16, 2025 199   @ Longwood L 80-82 60%     13 - 5 3 - 2 -0.9 +8.1 -9.0
  Jan 18, 2025 273   Presbyterian W 77-66 88%     14 - 5 4 - 2 +1.9 +6.4 -3.5
  Jan 22, 2025 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 88-76 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 197   Winthrop W 88-80 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 273   @ Presbyterian W 78-71 75%    
  Feb 05, 2025 204   @ Radford W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 187   UNC Asheville W 86-78 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 199   Longwood W 82-74 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   @ Winthrop W 85-82 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 279   Charleston Southern W 83-70 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 239   @ Gardner-Webb W 82-77 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 338   South Carolina Upstate W 91-73 95%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1.4 10.4 22.3 21.3 8.9 64.3 1st
2nd 0.5 5.5 10.7 4.5 0.8 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 4.9 1.4 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 5.1 12.6 22.5 26.8 22.1 8.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 8.9    8.8 0.1
13-3 96.5% 21.3    19.1 2.2 0.0
12-4 83.2% 22.3    14.7 7.1 0.6
11-5 46.3% 10.4    3.0 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0
10-6 11.2% 1.4    0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 64.3% 64.3 45.7 14.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 8.9% 54.5% 54.5% 12.0 0.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 4.0
13-3 22.1% 47.8% 47.8% 12.8 0.1 3.6 5.7 1.2 0.0 11.5
12-4 26.8% 45.2% 45.2% 13.2 1.4 6.7 3.8 0.2 14.7
11-5 22.5% 36.3% 36.3% 13.6 0.4 3.1 4.1 0.6 14.3
10-6 12.6% 30.6% 30.6% 13.9 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.8 8.8
9-7 5.1% 25.0% 25.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 3.8
8-8 1.6% 21.1% 21.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3
7-9 0.4% 18.9% 18.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 41.2% 41.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.8 8.7 17.5 12.0 2.2 0.0 58.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.8% 100.0% 12.0 14.7 68.5 16.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%