High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#134
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#101
Pace65.3#273
Improvement+0.0#182

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#66
First Shot+3.5#86
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#130
Layup/Dunks-1.4#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows+4.3#10
Improvement-0.4#216

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#267
First Shot-2.6#262
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#207
Layups/Dunks-1.7#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#232
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement+0.5#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.6% 31.8% 25.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 94.1% 90.6%
Conference Champion 41.4% 46.4% 37.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round28.6% 31.8% 25.8%
Second Round2.4% 3.0% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 36 - 56 - 6
Quad 416 - 323 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-51 97%     1 - 0 +20.9 +11.8 +8.5
  Nov 09, 2024 311   Jackson St. W 80-71 88%     2 - 0 -2.2 +3.3 -5.5
  Nov 12, 2024 258   NC Central W 76-60 82%     3 - 0 +7.5 +9.7 +0.3
  Nov 15, 2024 137   UAB W 68-65 62%     4 - 0 +1.3 -6.3 +7.7
  Nov 18, 2024 237   American W 80-73 79%     5 - 0 +0.0 +19.2 -17.8
  Nov 24, 2024 191   Missouri St. L 61-71 61%     5 - 1 -11.5 -7.9 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2024 318   Old Dominion W 73-67 83%     6 - 1 -2.8 +5.0 -7.1
  Nov 26, 2024 270   Hampton W 76-73 76%     7 - 1 -2.8 +14.2 -16.5
  Dec 03, 2024 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-72 44%     7 - 2 -0.9 +10.3 -12.0
  Dec 06, 2024 72   North Texas W 76-71 38%     8 - 2 +9.6 +9.8 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 171   Appalachian St. W 65-59 58%     9 - 2 +5.3 -6.1 +11.2
  Dec 21, 2024 169   @ Southern Illinois L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 196   Norfolk St. W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 02, 2025 202   Radford W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 182   @ UNC Asheville L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 299   @ Charleston Southern W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 240   Gardner-Webb W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 220   @ Longwood W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 250   Presbyterian W 78-69 81%    
  Jan 22, 2025 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 83-74 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 181   Winthrop W 81-76 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 250   @ Presbyterian W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 202   @ Radford W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 182   UNC Asheville W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 220   Longwood W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 181   @ Winthrop L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 299   Charleston Southern W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 240   @ Gardner-Webb W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 334   South Carolina Upstate W 86-71 91%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.3 10.8 11.6 8.2 3.6 0.8 41.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.8 9.0 5.2 1.3 0.1 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.3 6.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 4.8 1.5 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.4 11.3 14.6 17.0 16.3 12.9 8.3 3.6 0.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
15-1 100.0% 3.6    3.6 0.0
14-2 98.6% 8.2    7.7 0.4
13-3 90.1% 11.6    9.5 2.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 66.5% 10.8    6.1 4.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 31.5% 5.3    1.4 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
10-6 6.4% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 41.4% 41.4 29.2 9.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.8% 55.6% 55.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 3.6% 51.0% 51.0% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-2 8.3% 46.2% 46.2% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.5
13-3 12.9% 39.9% 39.9% 13.3 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.7 0.2 7.8
12-4 16.3% 34.2% 34.2% 13.6 0.3 2.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.7
11-5 17.0% 28.2% 28.2% 14.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.1 0.0 12.2
10-6 14.6% 22.2% 22.2% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.1 11.4
9-7 11.3% 17.7% 17.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 9.3
8-8 7.4% 13.4% 13.4% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 6.4
7-9 4.2% 12.1% 12.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.7
6-10 2.1% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.0
5-11 0.9% 5.5% 5.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-12 0.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.2 9.3 10.4 4.9 0.7 71.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.5 0.9 3.4 40.5 54.3 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%