Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#220
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#159
Pace69.6#163
Improvement-3.8#347

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#240
First Shot-3.3#276
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#137
Layup/Dunks+1.6#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#351
Freethrows+3.9#20
Improvement-0.4#214

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#182
First Shot-2.5#260
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#38
Layups/Dunks-8.3#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows+2.0#57
Improvement-3.4#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 11.8% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 68.9% 80.2% 57.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 69.6% 58.3%
Conference Champion 11.6% 14.2% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 4.4% 7.6%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round9.5% 11.5% 7.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 412 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 349   Morgan St. W 84-66 87%     1 - 0 +2.8 -1.2 +3.3
  Nov 13, 2024 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 46%     2 - 0 +12.1 -9.7 +20.0
  Nov 16, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 82%     3 - 0 -10.8 -12.8 +2.1
  Nov 19, 2024 310   @ Binghamton W 66-60 59%     4 - 0 +0.8 +0.3 +1.4
  Nov 22, 2024 137   UAB W 89-81 34%     5 - 0 +9.3 +10.9 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2024 92   McNeese St. L 69-84 20%     5 - 1 -9.0 -0.9 -8.1
  Nov 25, 2024 64   Kansas St. L 64-80 14%     5 - 2 -7.4 -4.2 -3.2
  Dec 05, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 90%     6 - 2 -13.0 -0.3 -12.7
  Dec 14, 2024 258   NC Central L 70-77 71%     6 - 3 -15.5 -7.3 -8.3
  Dec 18, 2024 269   @ Campbell L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 20, 2024 258   @ NC Central L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 29, 2024 49   @ SMU L 67-83 7%    
  Jan 02, 2025 250   @ Presbyterian L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 299   Charleston Southern W 75-68 76%    
  Jan 08, 2025 182   UNC Asheville W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 181   @ Winthrop L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 15, 2025 134   High Point L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 22, 2025 202   @ Radford L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 334   South Carolina Upstate W 81-70 83%    
  Jan 29, 2025 240   @ Gardner-Webb L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 299   @ Charleston Southern W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 202   Radford W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 134   @ High Point L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 15, 2025 250   Presbyterian W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 240   Gardner-Webb W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 182   @ UNC Asheville L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 181   Winthrop W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 78-73 66%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.8 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 11.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.8 5.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.5 6.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.2 6.6 1.7 0.1 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.6 6.8 1.8 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.9 1.8 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 3.1 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.7 1.1 0.1 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.7 6.8 10.1 12.8 14.8 15.0 13.1 9.8 6.1 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 97.1% 1.3    1.2 0.1
13-3 86.3% 2.9    2.2 0.7 0.0
12-4 61.8% 3.8    2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
11-5 25.8% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 6.6 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 25.9% 25.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 36.7% 36.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.4% 31.9% 31.9% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
13-3 3.3% 26.6% 26.6% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4
12-4 6.1% 21.4% 21.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.8
11-5 9.8% 17.7% 17.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 8.0
10-6 13.1% 13.6% 13.6% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 11.4
9-7 15.0% 9.7% 9.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 13.5
8-8 14.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 13.8
7-9 12.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 12.2
6-10 10.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.7
5-11 6.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
4-12 3.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.7
3-13 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 4.0 2.2 90.1 0.0%