SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#63
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#94
Pace78.2#24
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 2.8% 4.3% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 7.2% 10.5% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 40.3% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.9% 38.0% 19.8%
Average Seed 8.3 8.1 8.7
.500 or above 79.5% 89.0% 70.0%
.500 or above in Conference 58.4% 65.8% 50.9%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.2% 5.0%
First Four5.4% 6.4% 4.4%
First Round28.2% 37.1% 19.3%
Second Round14.8% 20.1% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 7.1% 3.1%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.7% 1.2%
Final Four0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 25 - 48 - 11
Quad 35 - 213 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 299   Tarleton St. W 96-62 95%     1 - 0 +24.0 +14.4 +7.8
  Nov 07, 2024 355   Florida A&M W 102-73 98%     2 - 0 +11.9 +11.5 -2.7
  Nov 11, 2024 174   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 87%     3 - 0 +9.3 +2.5 +6.2
  Nov 15, 2024 93   @ Butler W 79-78 50%    
  Nov 18, 2024 345   Prairie View W 93-69 99%    
  Nov 22, 2024 26   Mississippi St. L 79-80 47%    
  Nov 26, 2024 181   California Baptist W 79-69 81%    
  Dec 03, 2024 281   Alabama St. W 84-66 95%    
  Dec 07, 2024 78   Virginia W 68-64 65%    
  Dec 14, 2024 48   LSU L 79-80 46%    
  Dec 21, 2024 144   @ Boston College W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 29, 2024 167   Longwood W 82-70 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 6   Duke L 75-82 28%    
  Jan 07, 2025 10   @ North Carolina L 78-89 18%    
  Jan 11, 2025 96   Georgia Tech W 87-81 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 78   @ Virginia L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 33   @ Miami (FL) L 78-84 30%    
  Jan 21, 2025 49   Louisville W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 59   @ North Carolina St. L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 119   California W 85-76 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 70   Stanford W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 82   @ Virginia Tech L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 11, 2025 35   Pittsburgh W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 62   Wake Forest W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 81   @ Notre Dame L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 44   Clemson W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 119   @ California W 82-79 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 70   @ Stanford L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 89   Syracuse W 86-80 69%    
  Mar 07, 2025 80   @ Florida St. L 78-80 44%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.5 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 3.3 1.3 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.2 0.2 5.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.6 7.5 9.8 10.8 11.5 11.4 10.5 8.4 6.6 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 98.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 87.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 62.7% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
16-4 33.4% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 10.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 99.1% 17.4% 81.7% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
16-4 2.9% 97.9% 13.6% 84.3% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.6%
15-5 4.8% 93.5% 10.6% 83.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 92.8%
14-6 6.6% 86.4% 8.2% 78.2% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9 85.2%
13-7 8.4% 68.1% 3.9% 64.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.1 2.7 66.9%
12-8 10.5% 47.0% 3.0% 44.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 45.3%
11-9 11.4% 26.9% 1.5% 25.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.4 25.7%
10-10 11.5% 12.7% 1.0% 11.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.0 11.8%
9-11 10.8% 3.6% 0.3% 3.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.4 3.3%
8-12 9.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.3%
7-13 7.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.1%
6-14 5.6% 5.6
5-15 3.8% 3.8
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 31.0% 2.9% 28.0% 8.3 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.9 4.6 5.5 5.9 0.8 0.0 69.0 28.9%