SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#49
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#54
Pace72.7#77
Improvement+2.0#58

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#38
First Shot+4.0#73
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#49
Layup/Dunks+4.9#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#202
Freethrows+3.2#37
Improvement-1.3#287

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#80
First Shot+2.9#92
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#112
Layups/Dunks+4.8#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#262
Freethrows-0.4#218
Improvement+3.3#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 2.1% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 5.3% 6.5% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.9% 45.2% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.2% 42.4% 26.4%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.5
.500 or above 97.9% 98.9% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 88.7% 71.0%
Conference Champion 4.3% 5.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four10.4% 10.7% 9.4%
First Round35.6% 39.8% 23.6%
Second Round17.6% 20.0% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.4% 6.3% 3.0%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.3% 1.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 27 - 49 - 9
Quad 37 - 116 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 303   Tarleton St. W 96-62 96%     1 - 0 +23.4 +15.5 +6.1
  Nov 07, 2024 355   Florida A&M W 102-73 98%     2 - 0 +13.0 +13.2 -3.2
  Nov 11, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 89%     3 - 0 +10.1 +4.2 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 74   @ Butler L 70-81 50%     3 - 1 -0.6 +2.0 -2.7
  Nov 18, 2024 340   Prairie View W 110-69 98%     4 - 1 +26.8 +11.9 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 79-84 52%     4 - 2 +4.9 +9.2 -4.3
  Nov 26, 2024 175   California Baptist W 79-77 85%     5 - 2 +1.2 +10.6 -9.3
  Nov 27, 2024 68   Washington St. W 77-60 59%     6 - 2 +25.0 +17.5 +9.4
  Dec 03, 2024 275   Alabama St. W 101-72 95%     7 - 2 +20.0 +18.6 +0.3
  Dec 07, 2024 93   Virginia W 63-51 76%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.8 +1.8 +14.3
  Dec 14, 2024 60   LSU W 74-64 55%     9 - 2 +19.1 +3.3 +15.4
  Dec 21, 2024 150   @ Boston College W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 29, 2024 220   Longwood W 83-67 93%    
  Jan 04, 2025 2   Duke L 70-77 24%    
  Jan 07, 2025 18   @ North Carolina L 79-86 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 110   Georgia Tech W 82-73 81%    
  Jan 15, 2025 93   @ Virginia W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 91   @ Miami (FL) W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 21, 2025 50   Louisville W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 120   California W 85-74 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 87   Stanford W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 05, 2025 125   @ Virginia Tech W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 32   Pittsburgh W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 94   Wake Forest W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 19, 2025 81   @ Notre Dame W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 30   Clemson W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 120   @ California W 82-77 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 87   @ Stanford W 78-77 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 97   Syracuse W 84-76 76%    
  Mar 07, 2025 65   @ Florida St. L 78-79 46%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 4.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.8 4.1 1.1 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.1 4.6 1.0 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.4 3.7 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.5 7.0 9.8 12.4 14.0 14.6 12.2 9.9 6.2 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 97.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
18-2 76.7% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
17-3 44.8% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 16.1% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.3% 97.9% 14.6% 83.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.6%
16-4 6.2% 93.8% 11.3% 82.5% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 93.0%
15-5 9.9% 82.6% 8.3% 74.3% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.0 1.7 81.0%
14-6 12.2% 66.7% 6.1% 60.7% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.8 2.2 0.1 4.1 64.6%
13-7 14.6% 46.7% 3.9% 42.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.1 0.1 7.8 44.5%
12-8 14.0% 29.4% 2.2% 27.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 0.2 9.9 27.8%
11-9 12.4% 15.6% 1.3% 14.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.2 10.5 14.4%
10-10 9.8% 7.4% 1.0% 6.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 9.1 6.5%
9-11 7.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 0.9%
8-12 4.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1%
7-13 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 40.9% 4.3% 36.6% 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.9 9.2 10.8 0.7 0.0 59.1 38.2%