Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#50
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#65
Pace71.7#100
Improvement-2.2#312

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#48
First Shot+4.3#62
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#106
Layup/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#55
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement+1.5#66

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#62
First Shot+3.4#80
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#96
Layups/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#193
Freethrows+3.7#11
Improvement-3.7#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.3% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 7.5% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.0% 48.9% 29.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.7% 46.5% 27.1%
Average Seed 9.0 8.7 9.4
.500 or above 85.0% 92.5% 78.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 85.0% 65.0%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 1.2%
First Four8.5% 8.9% 8.3%
First Round33.7% 44.6% 24.9%
Second Round16.6% 22.8% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 7.0% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.7% 1.1%
Final Four0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 43 - 8
Quad 26 - 49 - 12
Quad 36 - 115 - 14
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 93-45 95%     1 - 0 +38.8 +9.7 +26.2
  Nov 09, 2024 4   Tennessee L 55-77 26%     1 - 1 -5.0 -5.2 -0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 100-68 98%     2 - 1 +18.6 +12.4 +4.6
  Nov 22, 2024 181   Winthrop W 76-61 90%     3 - 1 +11.0 -7.2 +16.6
  Nov 27, 2024 46   Indiana W 89-61 48%     4 - 1 +38.8 +17.9 +20.0
  Nov 28, 2024 42   West Virginia W 79-70 OT 45%     5 - 1 +20.4 +9.9 +10.2
  Nov 29, 2024 37   Oklahoma L 64-69 43%     5 - 2 +6.9 +3.8 +2.6
  Dec 03, 2024 26   Mississippi L 63-86 48%     5 - 3 -12.4 -3.7 -9.6
  Dec 08, 2024 2   Duke L 65-76 24%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +6.8 +4.3 +2.0
  Dec 11, 2024 132   UTEP W 77-74 86%     6 - 4 +1.5 +5.5 -4.0
  Dec 14, 2024 11   @ Kentucky L 85-93 17%     6 - 5 +12.4 +15.9 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 65   @ Florida St. L 76-77 45%    
  Dec 28, 2024 218   Eastern Kentucky W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 01, 2025 18   North Carolina L 81-82 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 93   @ Virginia W 63-62 55%    
  Jan 07, 2025 30   Clemson W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 32   @ Pittsburgh L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 14, 2025 97   @ Syracuse W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 93   Virginia W 66-59 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 49   @ SMU L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 94   Wake Forest W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 110   @ Georgia Tech W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 150   @ Boston College W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 10, 2025 91   Miami (FL) W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 12, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 16, 2025 81   @ Notre Dame W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 65   Florida St. W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 25, 2025 125   @ Virginia Tech W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 32   Pittsburgh W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 05, 2025 120   California W 84-73 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 87   Stanford W 79-72 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 3.3 0.8 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.9 4.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.7 1.2 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 5.0 1.8 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.6 1.4 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.7 0.0 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.4 7.1 10.0 12.3 13.8 14.0 12.4 9.5 6.5 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 79.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 67.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 32.2% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 12.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 3.4% 96.6% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 99.6% 15.1% 84.5% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
16-4 3.5% 98.0% 12.9% 85.0% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.6%
15-5 6.5% 92.2% 9.7% 82.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.5 91.4%
14-6 9.5% 81.1% 6.9% 74.2% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.8 79.7%
13-7 12.4% 63.9% 4.7% 59.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.2 0.1 4.5 62.1%
12-8 14.0% 44.0% 2.7% 41.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 2.7 0.1 7.8 42.5%
11-9 13.8% 24.0% 1.7% 22.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 0.2 10.5 22.7%
10-10 12.3% 10.0% 1.4% 8.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 11.1 8.8%
9-11 10.0% 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8 1.4%
8-12 7.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.1%
7-13 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 38.0% 3.5% 34.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.1 5.1 6.9 8.8 8.9 0.6 62.0 35.7%