Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#27
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#24
Pace71.6#99
Improvement+2.1#86

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#24
First Shot+6.9#29
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#121
Layup/Dunks+0.9#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#36
Freethrows+2.7#40
Improvement+3.0#40

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#46
First Shot+4.2#55
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#61
Layups/Dunks+0.3#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
Freethrows+4.1#3
Improvement-0.9#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 9.1% 15.9% 3.8%
Top 6 Seed 32.0% 47.0% 20.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.5% 95.5% 86.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.7% 95.0% 85.6%
Average Seed 7.2 6.4 7.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 8.4% 14.4% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 1.0% 4.5%
First Round88.9% 94.8% 84.2%
Second Round54.6% 62.9% 48.0%
Sweet Sixteen18.7% 24.7% 14.0%
Elite Eight6.8% 9.2% 4.8%
Final Four2.2% 3.1% 1.5%
Championship Game0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 44.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 27 - 211 - 8
Quad 37 - 118 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 259   Morehead St. W 93-45 97%     1 - 0 +39.8 +12.4 +24.4
  Nov 09, 2024 8   Tennessee L 55-77 41%     1 - 1 -6.0 -6.1 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 353   Bellarmine W 100-68 99%     2 - 1 +15.8 +10.8 +3.4
  Nov 22, 2024 197   Winthrop W 76-61 94%     3 - 1 +10.6 -8.7 +17.7
  Nov 27, 2024 56   Indiana W 89-61 64%     4 - 1 +38.0 +19.2 +17.9
  Nov 28, 2024 32   West Virginia W 79-70 OT 53%     5 - 1 +21.9 +11.4 +10.2
  Nov 29, 2024 45   Oklahoma L 64-69 60%     5 - 2 +6.2 +2.3 +3.4
  Dec 03, 2024 19   Mississippi L 63-86 53%     5 - 3 -10.2 -0.3 -10.8
  Dec 08, 2024 1   Duke L 65-76 24%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +10.0 +4.7 +4.9
  Dec 11, 2024 131   UTEP W 77-74 91%     6 - 4 +2.1 +4.9 -2.8
  Dec 14, 2024 15   @ Kentucky L 85-93 29%     6 - 5 +11.3 +13.7 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 58   @ Florida St. W 90-76 55%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +26.3 +26.9 -0.1
  Dec 28, 2024 248   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 97%     8 - 5 -5.6 +0.0 -5.6
  Jan 01, 2025 26   North Carolina W 83-70 60%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +24.0 +10.1 +13.0
  Jan 04, 2025 107   @ Virginia W 70-50 76%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +26.2 +15.1 +14.6
  Jan 07, 2025 30   Clemson W 74-64 63%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +20.4 +10.5 +10.5
  Jan 11, 2025 40   @ Pittsburgh W 82-78 47%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +18.5 +15.6 +3.0
  Jan 14, 2025 103   @ Syracuse W 85-61 75%     13 - 5 6 - 1 +30.7 +16.5 +14.4
  Jan 18, 2025 107   Virginia W 81-67 88%     14 - 5 7 - 1 +14.7 +11.4 +3.3
  Jan 21, 2025 37   @ SMU L 79-80 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 59   Wake Forest W 76-69 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 104   @ Georgia Tech W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 05, 2025 195   @ Boston College W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 10, 2025 155   Miami (FL) W 88-72 94%    
  Feb 12, 2025 93   @ North Carolina St. W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 16, 2025 77   @ Notre Dame W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   Florida St. W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 137   @ Virginia Tech W 78-69 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 40   Pittsburgh W 79-74 67%    
  Mar 05, 2025 118   California W 85-71 90%    
  Mar 08, 2025 87   Stanford W 82-72 83%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.6 8.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 6.4 16.3 19.1 9.6 1.4 53.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.3 8.9 7.0 1.7 0.1 22.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.4 2.6 0.3 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.9 10.7 18.0 23.9 22.5 13.6 4.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 65.8% 2.6    1.2 1.4 0.0
18-2 28.6% 3.9    1.2 2.4 0.3
17-3 7.5% 1.7    0.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
16-4 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 2.7 4.9 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 4.0% 99.8% 15.5% 84.3% 3.8 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
18-2 13.6% 99.2% 11.1% 88.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 3.6 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.1%
17-3 22.5% 98.1% 10.3% 87.8% 6.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.5 5.8 6.1 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 97.9%
16-4 23.9% 95.3% 7.6% 87.7% 7.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 6.1 6.7 3.9 1.3 0.2 1.1 94.9%
15-5 18.0% 89.5% 5.4% 84.1% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.9 4.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 1.9 88.9%
14-6 10.7% 76.4% 3.8% 72.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.4 0.9 2.5 75.4%
13-7 4.9% 59.9% 1.9% 58.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 2.0 59.1%
12-8 1.8% 46.2% 3.3% 42.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 44.4%
11-9 0.5% 22.9% 22.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 22.9%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.5% 7.8% 82.7% 7.2 0.2 0.8 2.3 5.9 9.2 13.7 17.3 17.7 13.2 7.6 2.8 0.0 9.5 89.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.3 22.6 38.7 27.4 11.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 100.0% 3.6 1.4 13.4 33.1 35.2 12.7 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 99.0% 4.4 3.1 17.3 35.7 27.6 14.3 1.0