Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#328
Expected Predictive Rating-26.1#363
Pace63.8#328
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#291
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#345
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.7% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 3.5% 9.4% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 18.5% 27.1% 16.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 11.4% 20.9%
First Four0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
First Round0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 54   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 3%     0 - 1 -6.7 +3.5 -11.2
  Nov 09, 2024 357   VMI L 71-76 77%     0 - 2 -22.2 -8.8 -13.4
  Nov 13, 2024 317   Southern Indiana L 69-71 58%     0 - 3 -13.6 -6.6 -7.1
  Nov 16, 2024 200   @ Marshall L 67-77 17%    
  Nov 19, 2024 49   @ Louisville L 61-83 2%    
  Nov 23, 2024 270   Bowling Green L 71-72 47%    
  Nov 30, 2024 180   @ Northern Kentucky L 62-74 14%    
  Dec 04, 2024 263   @ Western Carolina L 63-70 26%    
  Dec 14, 2024 224   Ball St. L 67-70 38%    
  Dec 19, 2024 196   @ Wyoming L 64-75 17%    
  Dec 21, 2024 76   @ Colorado L 59-79 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 177   @ North Alabama L 65-77 16%    
  Jan 04, 2025 346   @ Central Arkansas L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 09, 2025 232   Jacksonville L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 140   North Florida L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 16, 2025 143   Lipscomb L 70-78 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 225   @ Eastern Kentucky L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 23, 2025 239   Florida Gulf Coast L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 322   Stetson W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 215   @ Austin Peay L 62-72 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 143   @ Lipscomb L 67-81 12%    
  Feb 06, 2025 140   @ North Florida L 68-82 12%    
  Feb 08, 2025 232   @ Jacksonville L 62-71 22%    
  Feb 13, 2025 297   Queens W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 349   West Georgia W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 215   Austin Peay L 65-69 39%    
  Feb 20, 2025 225   Eastern Kentucky L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 24, 2025 322   @ Stetson L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 239   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 61-70 23%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 2.1 0.2 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 0.3 2.1 5.1 5.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 16.6 11th
12th 0.7 2.5 3.8 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.6 12th
Total 0.7 2.8 6.0 9.6 12.7 13.7 14.0 12.3 9.8 7.3 5.0 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 78.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 77.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 51.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 14.8% 14.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 10.2% 10.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9
12-6 1.7% 8.8% 8.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5
11-7 3.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
10-8 5.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.9
9-9 7.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.2
8-10 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-11 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.2
6-12 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-13 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 12.7% 12.7
3-15 9.6% 9.6
2-16 6.0% 6.0
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%