VMI
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#309
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#272
Pace69.9#130
Improvement+1.3#127

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#319
First Shot-5.6#325
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#192
Layup/Dunks-6.0#346
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows+1.3#96
Improvement-1.3#247

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#250
First Shot-1.8#230
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#279
Layups/Dunks-0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#315
Freethrows+2.0#57
Improvement+2.6#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 42.2% 5.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 14.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 48 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 340   @ Bellarmine W 76-71 52%     1 - 0 -4.1 -4.8 +0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 308   Tennessee Tech L 71-72 50%     1 - 1 -9.4 -8.2 -1.3
  Nov 16, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 80-69 44%     2 - 1 +4.1 +2.0 +1.7
  Nov 18, 2024 52   @ Pittsburgh L 48-93 3%     2 - 2 -31.8 -19.0 -13.7
  Nov 22, 2024 129   @ Davidson L 66-93 12%     2 - 3 -22.7 -8.2 -14.1
  Nov 26, 2024 325   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-70 46%     2 - 4 -10.4 -4.1 -6.5
  Nov 29, 2024 117   @ George Washington L 64-77 10%     2 - 5 -7.7 +1.7 -10.7
  Dec 07, 2024 231   Queens L 78-81 42%     2 - 6 -9.4 +2.9 -12.4
  Dec 21, 2024 218   @ Richmond L 71-78 23%     2 - 7 -7.6 +3.2 -11.3
  Jan 01, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-84 14%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -11.7 +4.2 -17.2
  Jan 04, 2025 256   Mercer L 67-70 47%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -10.8 -13.5 +3.0
  Jan 09, 2025 113   @ Samford L 68-81 10%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -7.5 -4.9 -2.2
  Jan 12, 2025 119   @ Chattanooga L 66-91 10%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -19.7 -1.0 -21.4
  Jan 15, 2025 333   Western Carolina W 66-50 68%     3 - 11 1 - 4 +2.7 -9.8 +13.1
  Jan 18, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 75-70 62%     4 - 11 2 - 4 -6.8 +1.9 -8.3
  Jan 22, 2025 159   Furman W 91-82 28%     5 - 11 3 - 4 +6.6 +16.0 -9.5
  Jan 25, 2025 154   UNC Greensboro L 57-60 27%     5 - 12 3 - 5 -5.0 -12.2 +7.0
  Jan 29, 2025 142   @ Wofford W 74-67 13%     6 - 12 4 - 5 +10.6 +7.8 +3.5
  Feb 01, 2025 333   @ Western Carolina W 80-76 OT 49%     7 - 12 5 - 5 -4.2 -1.6 -2.9
  Feb 05, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. L 55-62 26%     7 - 13 5 - 6 -8.8 -16.5 +7.5
  Feb 08, 2025 358   The Citadel W 82-70 79%     8 - 13 6 - 6 -4.9 +2.8 -7.5
  Feb 12, 2025 154   @ UNC Greensboro L 54-80 14%     8 - 14 6 - 7 -22.9 -16.4 -6.5
  Feb 15, 2025 256   @ Mercer W 80-71 29%     9 - 14 7 - 7 +6.3 +7.3 -1.0
  Feb 19, 2025 142   Wofford L 43-82 25%     9 - 15 7 - 8 -40.5 -31.9 -9.1
  Feb 22, 2025 159   @ Furman L 65-76 14%    
  Feb 27, 2025 113   Samford L 71-80 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 119   Chattanooga L 71-80 22%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 0.4 3.9 0.5 4.9 6th
7th 50.3 35.6 5.6 91.5 7th
8th 3.2 3.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 53.5 36.0 9.6 0.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
8-10 36.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 35.9
7-11 53.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.2 53.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 16.0%