VMI
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.3#327
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#312
Pace68.6#180
Improvement-0.3#197

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#318
First Shot-5.3#321
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#186
Layup/Dunks-5.9#346
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement+0.2#163

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#321
First Shot-3.6#292
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#295
Layups/Dunks-0.8#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#334
Freethrows+1.8#62
Improvement-0.5#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 3.9% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 4.2% 14.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 91 - 15
Quad 46 - 77 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 353   @ Bellarmine W 76-71 51%     1 - 0 -5.7 -4.7 -0.9
  Nov 15, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech L 71-72 45%     1 - 1 -10.0 -8.4 -1.5
  Nov 16, 2024 279   Charleston Southern W 80-69 36%     2 - 1 +4.3 +2.1 +1.9
  Nov 18, 2024 40   @ Pittsburgh L 48-93 2%     2 - 2 -30.5 -18.3 -13.1
  Nov 22, 2024 121   @ Davidson L 66-93 8%     2 - 3 -21.6 -7.9 -13.2
  Nov 26, 2024 315   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-70 34%     2 - 4 -9.0 -4.2 -5.0
  Nov 29, 2024 119   @ George Washington L 64-77 8%     2 - 5 -7.6 +1.2 -10.1
  Dec 07, 2024 210   Queens L 78-81 31%     2 - 6 -8.2 +4.1 -12.4
  Dec 21, 2024 209   @ Richmond L 71-78 16%     2 - 7 -6.7 +5.4 -12.5
  Jan 01, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-84 10%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -11.1 +3.8 -16.2
  Jan 04, 2025 233   Mercer L 67-70 36%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -9.8 -13.0 +3.4
  Jan 09, 2025 115   @ Samford L 68-81 8%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -7.3 -6.6 -0.3
  Jan 12, 2025 156   @ Chattanooga L 66-91 11%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -21.8 -2.0 -22.4
  Jan 15, 2025 342   Western Carolina W 66-50 65%     3 - 11 1 - 4 +1.7 -8.6 +11.0
  Jan 18, 2025 352   @ The Citadel W 75-70 49%     4 - 11 2 - 4 -5.2 +3.1 -8.0
  Jan 22, 2025 151   Furman L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 129   UNC Greensboro L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 29, 2025 130   @ Wofford L 64-79 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 342   @ Western Carolina L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 05, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 352   The Citadel W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-76 8%    
  Feb 15, 2025 233   @ Mercer L 69-78 19%    
  Feb 19, 2025 130   Wofford L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 151   @ Furman L 63-77 10%    
  Feb 27, 2025 115   Samford L 73-84 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 156   Chattanooga L 71-79 24%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 5.1 5.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 3.7 15.9 19.3 10.8 3.2 0.4 53.3 8th
9th 2.3 11.1 8.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 24.5 9th
10th 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 4.8 16.4 24.5 24.3 16.3 8.6 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.3% 0.3
9-9 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
8-10 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
7-11 8.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.5
6-12 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.3
5-13 24.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.3
4-14 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.5
3-15 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
2-16 4.8% 4.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8%