Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#249
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#282
Pace69.6#175
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#243
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 7.5% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 35.5% 53.8% 27.2%
.500 or above in Conference 46.0% 56.9% 41.0%
Conference Champion 5.3% 8.4% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 4.0% 8.8%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.1%
First Round4.7% 7.1% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 410 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 114   @ DePaul L 64-95 15%     0 - 1 -24.4 -11.5 -10.2
  Nov 16, 2024 198   @ South Alabama L 69-74 31%    
  Nov 21, 2024 64   @ South Carolina L 62-78 7%    
  Nov 25, 2024 232   Jacksonville L 68-69 46%    
  Dec 04, 2024 349   West Georgia W 78-67 85%    
  Dec 08, 2024 322   @ Stetson W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 15, 2024 342   Chicago St. W 78-68 81%    
  Dec 18, 2024 297   @ Queens L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 21, 2024 163   @ Winthrop L 66-74 26%    
  Dec 28, 2024 223   @ Georgia St. L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 01, 2025 179   Chattanooga L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 357   @ VMI W 82-75 72%    
  Jan 08, 2025 190   East Tennessee St. W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 15, 2025 141   Samford L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 178   @ Wofford L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 22, 2025 174   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 148   Furman L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 292   The Citadel W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 179   @ Chattanooga L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 05, 2025 141   @ Samford L 74-83 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 178   Wofford L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 148   @ Furman L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 357   VMI W 85-72 86%    
  Feb 19, 2025 292   @ The Citadel L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 174   UNC Greensboro L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 26, 2025 190   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-75 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.1 3.2 0.7 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.0 3.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.9 4.1 0.8 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 5.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.4 5.7 8.3 10.1 11.9 12.0 11.7 10.0 8.4 6.6 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 97.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 84.4% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 59.3% 1.6    1.0 0.6 0.1
13-5 27.2% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 34.4% 34.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 36.6% 36.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.5% 30.1% 30.1% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.0
14-4 2.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2
13-5 4.2% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.5
12-6 6.6% 11.9% 11.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 5.8
11-7 8.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 7.7
10-8 10.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.4
9-9 11.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.1
8-10 12.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.8
7-11 11.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.7
6-12 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 8.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.3
4-14 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 94.8 0.0%