Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#233
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#239
Pace74.9#42
Improvement-0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#257
First Shot-2.2#232
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#259
Layup/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#225
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement-3.0#327

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#202
First Shot-1.0#211
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#152
Layups/Dunks+0.3#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#179
Freethrows-0.8#243
Improvement+2.9#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.7% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 15.1% 33.1% 10.7%
.500 or above in Conference 27.5% 51.4% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round2.0% 2.5% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 19.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 60 - 6
Quad 33 - 94 - 15
Quad 410 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 106   @ DePaul L 64-95 17%     0 - 1 -24.7 -12.6 -9.6
  Nov 16, 2024 126   @ South Alabama L 66-75 19%     0 - 2 -3.9 -1.9 -2.1
  Nov 21, 2024 82   @ South Carolina L 72-84 11%     0 - 3 -2.4 +7.0 -9.7
  Nov 25, 2024 185   Jacksonville W 90-89 OT 39%     1 - 3 +0.0 +9.4 -9.5
  Nov 26, 2024 153   Miami (OH) L 72-75 32%     1 - 4 -2.2 -5.1 +3.0
  Dec 04, 2024 349   West Georgia W 86-72 85%     2 - 4 -1.3 +11.2 -11.6
  Dec 08, 2024 348   @ Stetson W 89-83 OT 70%     3 - 4 -3.4 -1.6 -2.5
  Dec 15, 2024 357   Chicago St. W 75-63 88%     4 - 4 -4.9 -2.3 -2.5
  Dec 18, 2024 210   @ Queens L 66-73 34%     4 - 5 -6.7 -13.9 +7.8
  Dec 21, 2024 197   @ Winthrop L 97-102 31%     4 - 6 -3.9 +4.6 -7.5
  Dec 28, 2024 280   @ Georgia St. W 71-68 51%     5 - 6 -1.2 -4.6 +3.4
  Jan 01, 2025 156   Chattanooga W 99-94 OT 43%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +2.7 +4.4 -2.5
  Jan 04, 2025 327   @ VMI W 70-67 64%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -4.6 -11.7 +6.9
  Jan 08, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. L 68-70 41%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -3.6 -3.4 -0.3
  Jan 12, 2025 342   @ Western Carolina L 82-85 68%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -11.8 +1.1 -12.7
  Jan 15, 2025 115   Samford L 74-75 34%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -0.8 -4.4 +3.7
  Jan 18, 2025 130   @ Wofford L 49-69 20%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -15.3 -20.1 +3.2
  Jan 22, 2025 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-75 20%    
  Jan 25, 2025 151   Furman L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 352   The Citadel W 76-64 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 156   @ Chattanooga L 74-81 24%    
  Feb 05, 2025 115   @ Samford L 75-85 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 130   Wofford L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 12, 2025 151   @ Furman L 68-76 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 327   VMI W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 19, 2025 352   @ The Citadel W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 129   UNC Greensboro L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-77 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   Western Carolina W 80-70 84%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.1 2.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 3.8 0.9 6.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 5.6 7.8 2.8 0.0 17.5 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 13.8 20.5 15.4 5.5 0.3 59.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.7 3.2 1.3 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.7 8.1 17.2 22.8 21.2 15.3 8.0 3.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 47.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.9% 11.8% 11.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 3.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
10-8 8.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.3 0.1 7.6
9-9 15.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 14.8
8-10 21.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.1 0.4 20.8
7-11 22.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 22.4
6-12 17.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 17.0
5-13 8.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.0
4-14 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 97.6 0.0%