Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#229
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#210
Pace70.9#121
Improvement+1.1#105

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#197
First Shot-0.4#180
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#213
Layup/Dunks+3.3#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#256
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement+0.6#127

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#259
First Shot-2.0#235
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#242
Layups/Dunks-0.6#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#115
Freethrows-2.3#319
Improvement+0.5#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.7% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 41.9% 54.8% 30.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.8% 56.0% 44.0%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.4% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.4% 4.2%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round3.7% 4.5% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 84 - 12
Quad 411 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 88   @ DePaul L 64-95 12%     0 - 1 -21.9 -10.1 -9.2
  Nov 16, 2024 201   @ South Alabama L 66-75 32%     0 - 2 -7.8 -5.0 -3.0
  Nov 21, 2024 69   @ South Carolina L 72-84 9%     0 - 3 -1.1 +6.6 -8.0
  Nov 25, 2024 204   Jacksonville W 90-89 OT 44%     1 - 3 -1.1 +8.7 -9.9
  Nov 26, 2024 195   Miami (OH) L 72-75 42%     1 - 4 -4.6 -4.7 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 348   West Georgia W 86-72 86%     2 - 4 -1.1 +11.7 -11.9
  Dec 08, 2024 336   @ Stetson W 89-83 OT 66%     3 - 4 -1.8 +0.5 -2.9
  Dec 15, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 75-63 89%     4 - 4 -5.2 -3.9 -1.3
  Dec 18, 2024 280   @ Queens L 78-79 48%    
  Dec 21, 2024 181   @ Winthrop L 77-83 30%    
  Dec 28, 2024 253   @ Georgia St. L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 01, 2025 178   Chattanooga W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 350   @ VMI W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 147   East Tennessee St. L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 308   @ Western Carolina W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 109   Samford L 81-86 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 163   @ Wofford L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 22, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 126   Furman L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 345   The Citadel W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 178   @ Chattanooga L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 05, 2025 109   @ Samford L 78-89 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 163   Wofford L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 126   @ Furman L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 350   VMI W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 19, 2025 345   @ The Citadel W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 308   Western Carolina W 78-71 74%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.3 0.9 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.4 5.3 1.3 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.6 6.1 1.8 0.1 17.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.8 7.8 5.8 1.6 0.1 21.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.7 6.6 10.2 13.0 14.5 14.2 12.4 9.6 6.6 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 85.1% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 60.4% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.2% 25.0% 25.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 23.1% 23.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 2.1% 15.6% 15.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.8
13-5 3.8% 12.9% 12.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3
12-6 6.6% 8.4% 8.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.0
11-7 9.6% 6.6% 6.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.0
10-8 12.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 11.8
9-9 14.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 13.8
8-10 14.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 14.2
7-11 13.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.8
6-12 10.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 6.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.6
4-14 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 96.1 0.0%