Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #149
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 #129
Pace 74.0 #57
Improvement +0.3 #174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #104 C+ B C+ C+ D+
Defense #242 D+ C C+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 1.27 #70 +0.4 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #119 0.74 #196 +0.9 #124
Three Pointers 41% #183 1.04 #146 +0.5 #162
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #129 +1.8 #128
Freethrows 18.4 #152 74% #126 13.6 #133
Second Chance 34.2% #79 1.09 #120 0.37 #70
Turnovers 15.8% #140
Total Offense +2.7 #104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.09 #89 +0.6 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.86 #323 -1.2 #277
Three Pointers 39% #232 1.18 #350 -2.3 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #274 -2.9 #273
Freethrows 14.8 #42 73% #233 10.8 #58
Second Chance 33.1% #286 0.93 #44 0.31 #144
Turnovers 17.2% #131
Total Defense -2.0 #242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #259 0.2% #180
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.6% #103 5.5% #279
Possession Length 16.7 #116 16.9 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #95 0.21 #292
Improvement +0.9 #130 -0.7 #230

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 29.6% 22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 98.6% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.8%
Conference Champion 35.5% 47.1% 22.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round26.4% 29.6% 22.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 416 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 22 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 5% -11  0 - 1 +5 -1 F D A+ +6 A- D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 174 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 68% +8  1 - 1 +11 +20 A+ A+ A+ -9 D+ F C
 Sat, Nov 15 130 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 34% -16  1 - 2 -31 -12 F D F -15 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 60% +11  2 - 2 +10 +17 A+ A- F -7 C C- D
 Wed, Nov 26 206 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 73% -3  3 - 2 +2 +10 D A+ C- -6 B D+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 184 @Elon W 91 - 84 48% +1  4 - 2 +8 +7 C F A +1 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 273 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 82% +5  5 - 2 +2 +3 D+ B- C+ -1 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 32 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7% +0  5 - 3 +10 +7 A+ F A+ +3 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 53 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 12% -10  5 - 4 -4 -6 F C+ F +2 A- A- C+
 Sat, Dec 20 141 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 37% -4  5 - 5 -2 +0 C- C- B- -2 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 165 @Furman L 72 - 74 43% -3  5 - 6 0 - 1 +0 +4 F B+ A+ -4 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 135 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 35% -1  5 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +4 C F B- -6 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 351 The Citadel W 101 - 63 93% +21  6 - 7 1 - 2 +22 +26 A+ A+ F -1 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 215 Wofford W 109 - 97 75% +7  7 - 7 2 - 2 +6 +21 A+ A+ D+ -17 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 349 @VMI W 77 - 67 83% +2  8 - 7 3 - 2 +1 +3 F A+ F -2 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 294 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 70% +12  9 - 7 4 - 2 +5 +19 A+ A+ F -14 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 21 289 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 85% +14  10 - 7 5 - 2 +2 +9 F A+ A+ -7 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 215 @Wofford W 82 - 81 54%
 Thu, Jan 29 294 UNC Greensboro W 87 - 76 86%
 Sat, Jan 31 349 VMI W 88 - 72 94%
 Thu, Feb 5 247 @Chattanooga W 79 - 77 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 249 @Samford W 83 - 80 59%
 Wed, Feb 11 165 Furman W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 351 @The Citadel W 81 - 71 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 247 Chattanooga W 82 - 74 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 249 Samford W 86 - 77 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 289 @Western Carolina W 85 - 80 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 135 East Tennessee St. W 78 - 76 58%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 5 +1 +3 C+ B C+ -2 D+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 6.7 13.0 11.1 3.6 35.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 11.0 15.4 7.5 1.4 38.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.3 6.6 1.5 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.8 0.5 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.9 11.9 19.3 23.6 20.6 12.5 3.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.6    3.4 0.2
15-3 88.8% 11.1    8.3 2.7
14-4 63.3% 13.0    6.4 6.1 0.5
13-5 28.5% 6.7    1.6 3.5 1.5 0.1
12-6 5.8% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.5% 35.5 19.8 12.9 2.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.6% 42.3% 42.3% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.1
15-3 12.5% 39.2% 39.2% 13.2 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.1 7.6
14-4 20.6% 32.3% 32.3% 13.7 0.1 2.4 3.5 0.6 13.9
13-5 23.6% 26.2% 26.2% 14.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 1.3 0.0 17.4
12-6 19.3% 21.2% 21.2% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.0 15.2
11-7 11.9% 17.0% 17.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 9.8
10-8 5.9% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 5.1
9-9 2.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
8-10 0.5% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 13.8 73.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 12.4 6.6 50.2 39.6 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%