Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.9 130
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 128
Pace 71.9 90
Improvement -2.9 297

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #115 C- C+ B B+ B-
Defense C #175 C C- C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 186 53% 302 -2.1 257
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 315 33% 327 -3.3 333
Three Pointers 48% 44 34% 184 +3.5 68
1st FG Attempt 0.98 229 -1.9 231
Second Chance 33.0% 106 1.03 166 0.34 109
Turnovers 14.9% 58
Freethrows 0.36 30 75% 90 0.27 24
Total Offense +2.1 115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 237 57% 156 +1.4 129
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 215 44% 339 -0.7 245
Three Pointers 44% 92 33% 125 -0.8 220
1st FG Attempt 1.02 180 -0.1 181
Second Chance 29.8% 151 1.09 279 0.32 218
Turnovers 16.7% 195
Freethrows 0.33 254 74% 284 0.24 268
Total Defense -0.2 175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.9 68 +0.0 173
Shot Type Accuracy -2.6 272 +0.1 185
Possession Length 16.6 107 17.0 144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 197 0.15 108
Improvement -3.8 #339 +1.0 #123

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 28% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 43% 44% 18%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round28% 28% 25%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Away) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 15 - 6
Quad 416 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 218 Queens W 81 - 74 68% +2  72% 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A C+ B+ +7 A- D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 89 @George Mason L 90 - 96 26% -0  47% 1 - 1 C+ +3 A +11 B F A+ D- -8 F B- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 238 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 62% -7  1% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F+ -10 D- F B- B- +2 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 171 Mercer W 105 - 69 70% +16  94% 2 - 2 A+ +32 A +12 B+ B+ A A+ +15 A- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 19 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 5% -1  37% 2 - 3 A +20 A +14 A- A+ A- B+ +6 A D+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 343 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 85% +8  80% 3 - 3 B +9 B +6 C+ B- B+ B +4 F+ B B-
 Tue, Nov 25 15 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 5% -2  28% 3 - 4 A- +14 A- +10 A- B A B +4 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 358 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  91% 4 - 4 C+ +4 A +14 B+ A+ D F+ -11 F D- D
 Tue, Dec 2 207 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 56% +4  71% 5 - 4 C+ +2 A +12 D- A+ A F+ -10 F+ F D
 Sat, Dec 6 238 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 81% +1  51% 5 - 5 D- -11 B +7 D+ A+ C- F -18 F D- F+
 Thu, Dec 18 288 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 73% +2  48% 5 - 6 D+ -6 A- +9 B B+ A F -16 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 16 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 5% -26  0% 5 - 7 D -9 F+ -9 F D D- C+ +1 C C A
 Wed, Dec 31 261 @Longwood L 70 - 82 67% -7  2% 5 - 8 0 - 1 F+ -15 D+ -3 F B- A+ F -12 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 97% -5  24% 6 - 8 1 - 1 D -11 B +5 C F B+ F -16 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 256 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 83% -2  26% 7 - 8 2 - 1 C- -4 D -6 D- C+ D+ C+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 297 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 74% +15  89% 8 - 8 3 - 1 A- +16 C- -2 C- C D A+ +19 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 14 92 High Point W 92 - 75 48% +15  93% 9 - 8 4 - 1 A +19 A+ +15 B A+ A+ B +5 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 211 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 57% +6  91% 10 - 8 5 - 1 C+ +2 D- -6 F C- F A- +8 A+ B F+
 Wed, Jan 21 233 Radford W 76 - 75 80% -2  23% 11 - 8 6 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 B+ D- C+ C- -3 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 69% +5  92% 12 - 8 7 - 1 B- +7 B- +4 F B+ A+ B- +3 B+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 211 UNC Asheville W 84 - 71 77% +7  98% 13 - 8 8 - 1 B- +7 A +13 B+ A- D D+ -4 C A F
 Wed, Feb 4 233 @Radford W 80 - 78 61% +3  65% 14 - 8 9 - 1 C +1 C +1 B- F B+ C -0 C C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 261 Longwood W 79 - 74 84% +2  65% 15 - 8 10 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 F D+ C+ B- +3 B+ B F
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 87 - 70 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 297 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 92 @High Point L 78 - 84 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 256 @Charleston Southern W 82 - 78 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 272 Presbyterian W 78 - 67 86%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 2 +2 C+ +2 C- C+ B C +0 C C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D D C D+ 38% 14% 48% B- C- B- C C+ B B+ B- B+ C C D- C+ C 37% 19% 44% C C C+ D+ C- C C- D+ D+
1.12 53% 33% 34% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.0 .34 15% .36 75% .27 1.09 57% 44% 33% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.1 .32 17% .33 74% .27
Nov
3		 Queens D+ F F F+ F 33% 22% 45% D F B A A C+ A+ A- A+ B+ C- F A+ A 35% 18% 47% B- A- F C D- A+ C F D
1.12 47% 27% 30% -8 0 0.84 39% 1.3 .49 14% .50 81% .40 1.03 61% 56% 21% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 24% .29 88% .25
Nov
7		 George Mason A A+ D B A- 19% 22% 59% D+ B D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ D- F B F F 36% 13% 51% D F F A+ B- B- F C F
1.17 73% 31% 37% +4 -2 1.07 24% 0.2 .04 8% .41 86% .35 1.25 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 44% 0.6 .28 18% .69 72% .50
Nov
11		 Coastal Carolina F+ F C D- F 44% 19% 37% A D- F B F B- A- F C B- A A F F+ 35% 15% 50% F F D F F A+ F A+ D
0.92 42% 40% 30% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.2 .17 11% .36 57% .20 1.01 44% 29% 48% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.3 .39 24% .39 57% .22
Nov
15		 Mercer A C+ B+ A+ B+ 42% 19% 39% C+ B+ C+ A B+ A A+ D A+ A+ C+ F A+ B+ 27% 29% 43% A A- A+ F B+ A+ F A+ C-
1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37 0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26
Nov
18		 Arkansas A B F A+ A 31% 19% 51% C A- D A+ A+ A- F C- F B+ F A+ C A- 37% 31% 33% A A A+ F D+ C D+ F F
1.17 61% 0% 43% +1 0 1.03 24% 2.3 .53 14% .10 67% .07 1.18 79% 19% 35% +2 -1 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 13% .35 91% .32
Nov
23		 Jackson St. B B- F B+ C 37% 11% 52% C+ C+ D+ A B- B+ F A+ F B C- F C- F 18% 33% 49% A F+ C+ B+ B B- A+ A+ A+
1.24 65% 17% 39% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.3 .42 12% .18 90% .16 0.96 56% 50% 33% +3 -3 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 20% .16 63% .10
Nov
25		 Nebraska A- A+ C+ B+ A 7% 29% 64% D A- A+ D B A C F+ C- B C- C B A 25% 18% 57% A A B- B B F A+ F A-
1.06 100% 38% 36% +5 -3 1.05 38% 0.7 .27 16% .22 62% .14 1.16 67% 36% 32% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 7% .16 90% .14
Nov
29		 South Carolina St. A A- A- B B+ 45% 7% 48% B- B+ A A+ A+ D F A+ F F+ C+ D- F F 39% 30% 31% F F C+ F D- D A+ D A
1.38 72% 50% 37% +9 +2 1.25 48% 1.7 .84 19% .25 87% .22 1.08 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.11 29% 1.3 .37 19% .20 67% .13
Dec
2		 LIU Brooklyn A D+ F F F 56% 12% 32% B+ D- B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ D- C- F F 43% 31% 26% B F+ C- F F D F F F
1.23 53% 14% 28% -9 +2 0.89 40% 1.4 .55 13% .44 83% .36 1.21 65% 41% 43% +8 -1 1.15 36% 1.3 .45 18% .40 80% .32
Dec
6		 Coastal Carolina B C+ F F+ D 29% 21% 50% B D+ A+ C A+ C- A+ C A+ F A F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F B- F D- F+ F D- F
1.20 57% 30% 29% -5 -1 0.90 44% 1.0 .46 13% .56 71% .40 1.26 44% 54% 43% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .32 11% .42 77% .32
Dec
18		 North Dakota A- D- A+ A+ B 43% 8% 50% B- B F A+ B+ A A+ D A+ F A+ F F C- 41% 4% 55% F D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50 1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37
Dec
28		 Texas Tech F+ F A+ F F 35% 21% 44% A- F A F D D- A+ C- A+ C+ B- F D+ C+ 33% 14% 53% D C B- D+ C A F F F
0.81 35% 70% 14% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.4 .16 21% .41 65% .27 1.23 56% 71% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 20% .46 88% .41
Dec
31		 Longwood D+ F F F F 48% 8% 44% B+ F A D- B- A+ A+ A A+ F C- B- F F 52% 13% 35% F F F F F C- D- B- D
1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42 1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27
Jan
3		 Gardner-Webb B A+ F D C 46% 13% 41% B C A+ F F B+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F F+ F 27% 17% 56% B+ F A+ D+ A- F D A+ C
1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +1 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44 1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18
Jan
7		 Charleston Southern D D+ F F F 54% 12% 34% A+ D- B+ F+ C+ D+ A F B- C+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 10% 47% D+ A+ C- F F F F+ A+ C-
1.05 50% 29% 20% -13 +2 0.81 36% 0.9 .32 13% .46 61% .28 1.00 48% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 30% 1.5 .45 12% .34 57% .19
Jan
10		 South Carolina Upstate C- F F B+ D 42% 6% 52% B+ C- A F C D B F D+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% D- A+ A+ F C B+ B- D+ C+
1.06 48% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 18% .35 58% .20 0.75 44% 0% 18% -21 +1 0.61 18% 1.4 .26 21% .26 71% .19
Jan
14		 High Point A+ B- D B- B- 44% 6% 50% A- B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B F+ B- A B- 35% 12% 53% B- B- C- A+ A+ C+ F B- F
1.31 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.5 .52 13% .54 67% .36 1.06 71% 33% 27% -2 +1 1.00 32% 0.5 .15 14% .46 71% .33
Jan
17		 UNC Asheville D- F A+ B- F 43% 2% 54% A F C+ D C- F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 23% 35% 42% C A+ C- A B F+ F+ D+ F+
0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44 0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30
Jan
21		 Radford D+ F C+ A+ B 44% 10% 46% B B+ F+ C+ D- C+ C- F D C- D- F F F 48% 5% 48% F F A- C B A+ F D+ F
1.11 48% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 24% 1.1 .27 17% .34 63% .21 1.09 65% 50% 40% +8 +3 1.24 23% 1.0 .23 28% .48 75% .36
Jan
24		 Presbyterian B- F+ B- F F 55% 13% 32% B+ F B+ B- B+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ F A+ B 30% 33% 37% A B+ B+ B B+ C F F F
1.15 48% 43% 24% -10 +2 0.87 37% 1.1 .39 7% .53 71% .38 1.01 43% 53% 24% -5 -2 0.87 27% 0.9 .24 20% .44 88% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UNC Asheville A F A A+ B 33% 4% 62% B B+ B+ B+ A- D A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F A+ C+ 28% 32% 40% D+ C C+ A+ A F F F F
1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47 1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35
Feb
4		 Radford C C+ A+ C B- 43% 13% 43% B- B- D- F F B+ C D- D+ C C C C+ C 37% 14% 49% C- C F A+ C+ C- A- D B+
1.12 61% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.13 26% 0.7 .17 15% .35 67% .23 1.09 57% 38% 32% -2 +1 1.00 37% 0.7 .27 17% .29 76% .22
Feb
7		 Longwood D- B- F F F 32% 11% 57% C F F A+ D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- F B A+ B 25% 31% 43% A+ B+ B+ C B F F A+ F
1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55 0.96 69% 31% 23% -6 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.4 24.9 14.5 42.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 8.5 28.2 19.5 57.2 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.9 8.6 31.6 44.4 14.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 14.5    14.5
14-2 56.1% 24.9    7.6 17.3
13-3 10.8% 3.4    0.4 3.0
12-4 0.8% 0.1    0.1
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 42.8% 42.8 22.5 20.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 14.5% 37.1% 37.1% 12.8 0.0 1.7 3.1 0.5 9.1
14-2 44.4% 28.9% 28.9% 13.4 0.8 6.2 5.4 0.4 31.5
13-3 31.6% 23.3% 23.3% 13.8 0.1 2.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 24.2
12-4 8.6% 20.7% 20.7% 14.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 6.8
11-5 0.9% 23.4% 23.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 13.4 72.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.4% 100.0% 12.8 0.6 32.4 58.5 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%