Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#118
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#180
Pace72.8#103
Improvement-3.1#344

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#70
First Shot+2.3#113
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#47
Layup/Dunks-1.7#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#15
Freethrows-1.3#256
Improvement+2.0#40

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#216
First Shot-1.0#205
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#231
Layups/Dunks+0.3#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#218
Freethrows+0.2#162
Improvement-5.1#364
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 33.0% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 96.6% 97.7% 90.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.3% 96.6%
Conference Champion 40.2% 41.6% 32.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round32.1% 32.9% 27.8%
Second Round2.8% 3.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 34 - 24 - 7
Quad 416 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 196 Queens W 81-74 70%     1 - 0 +4.7 +0.5 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 7 74 @George Mason L 90-96 24%     1 - 1 +4.7 +14.5 -9.3
  Tue, Nov 11 235 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 67%     1 - 2 -7.3 -6.8 -0.4
  Sat, Nov 15 194 Mercer W 105-69 78%     2 - 2 +30.9 +14.1 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 20 @Arkansas L 83-84 9%     2 - 3 +17.2 +17.9 -0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 312 @Jackson St. W 80-62 79%     3 - 3 +12.6 +14.1 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 25 48 @Nebraska L 73-80 16%     3 - 4 +6.8 +7.6 -0.9
  Sat, Nov 29 349 South Carolina St. W 101-79 95%     4 - 4 +6.5 +17.2 -11.7
  Tue, Dec 2 227 @LIU Brooklyn W 94-92 OT 65%     5 - 4 +1.1 +13.0 -12.0
  Sat, Dec 6 235 Coastal Carolina L 84-88 84%     5 - 5 -11.3 +9.9 -21.2
  Thu, Dec 18 337 @North Dakota W 84-73 85%    
  Sun, Dec 28 29 @Texas Tech L 72-85 11%    
  Wed, Dec 31 287 @Longwood W 84-77 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 359 Gardner-Webb W 93-73 97%    
  Wed, Jan 7 285 Charleston Southern W 86-73 88%    
  Sat, Jan 10 274 @South Carolina Upstate W 82-76 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 97 High Point W 85-84 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 203 @UNC Asheville W 80-77 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 288 Radford W 90-77 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 262 @Presbyterian W 74-68 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 203 UNC Asheville W 83-74 79%    
  Wed, Feb 4 288 @Radford W 87-80 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 287 Longwood W 87-74 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 359 @Gardner-Webb W 90-76 90%    
  Thu, Feb 19 274 South Carolina Upstate W 85-73 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 97 @High Point L 82-87 33%    
  Thu, Feb 26 285 @Charleston Southern W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 262 Presbyterian W 77-65 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.6 10.4 13.2 8.6 2.3 40.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 9.9 13.0 9.0 2.5 38.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.7 10.0 14.9 18.7 19.5 15.7 8.6 2.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
15-1 100.0% 8.6    7.9 0.7
14-2 83.9% 13.2    9.6 3.6 0.0
13-3 53.2% 10.4    5.8 4.3 0.3
12-4 24.6% 4.6    1.6 2.4 0.6 0.0
11-5 6.6% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.2% 40.2 27.3 11.6 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.3% 57.4% 57.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0
15-1 8.6% 52.0% 52.0% 12.7 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.1
14-2 15.7% 43.6% 43.6% 13.2 0.0 1.2 3.5 2.0 0.2 8.9
13-3 19.5% 36.4% 36.4% 13.6 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.4
12-4 18.7% 30.1% 30.1% 13.9 0.1 1.5 2.9 1.1 0.0 13.1
11-5 14.9% 24.4% 24.4% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.1 11.3
10-6 10.0% 19.2% 19.2% 14.6 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.1 8.0
9-7 5.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 4.9
8-8 2.7% 12.2% 12.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.4
7-9 1.2% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1
6-10 0.5% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.8 11.0 11.3 4.7 0.8 67.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 6.8 8.1 60.8 20.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%