High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#97
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#125
Pace73.8#82
Improvement-3.3#350

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#55
First Shot+4.8#61
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#117
Layup/Dunks+5.3#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#207
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement-1.5#299

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot-0.6#190
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#199
Layups/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#316
Freethrows-0.3#205
Improvement-1.8#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.9% 47.8% 40.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.6% 98.8%
Conference Champion 64.3% 65.7% 55.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round46.9% 47.8% 40.8%
Second Round6.2% 6.6% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Neutral) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 25 - 4
Quad 420 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 148 Furman W 97-71 67%     1 - 0 +26.6 +19.4 +6.2
  Tue, Nov 11 291 Jacksonville W 85-64 92%     2 - 0 +10.7 +9.6 +1.4
  Fri, Nov 14 110 @UAB L 74-91 44%     2 - 1 -10.3 -3.2 -5.4
  Mon, Nov 17 355 Canisius W 93-50 97%     3 - 1 +26.8 +18.8 +10.4
  Thu, Nov 20 204 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 77%     4 - 1 +7.4 +12.9 -6.0
  Sat, Nov 22 188 Incarnate Word W 91-80 75%     5 - 1 +9.2 +21.2 -11.2
  Sat, Nov 29 289 Western Carolina W 93-73 92%     6 - 1 +9.8 +11.0 -2.4
  Wed, Dec 3 143 Southern Illinois L 84-86 75%     6 - 2 -3.8 +5.4 -9.1
  Fri, Dec 5 348 NJIT W 89-72 96%     7 - 2 +1.7 +6.9 -6.0
  Sun, Dec 14 282 Appalachian St. W 79-67 86%    
  Fri, Dec 19 225 La Salle W 82-70 87%    
  Mon, Dec 22 297 Bryant W 84-68 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 203 @UNC Asheville W 82-77 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 287 Longwood W 89-74 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 359 Gardner-Webb W 94-72 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 285 @Charleston Southern W 85-76 80%    
  Wed, Jan 14 118 @Winthrop L 84-85 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 274 South Carolina Upstate W 87-73 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 288 @Radford W 89-80 80%    
  Thu, Jan 29 262 Presbyterian W 79-65 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 287 @Longwood W 86-77 80%    
  Wed, Feb 4 285 Charleston Southern W 88-73 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 288 Radford W 92-77 92%    
  Thu, Feb 12 274 @South Carolina Upstate W 84-76 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 359 Gardner-Webb W 94-72 98%    
  Thu, Feb 19 203 UNC Asheville W 85-74 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 118 Winthrop W 87-82 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 262 @Presbyterian W 76-68 75%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.8 14.1 20.2 16.4 6.5 64.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.9 8.9 6.7 1.9 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 5.0 9.6 15.5 20.9 22.1 16.4 6.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.5    6.5
15-1 100.0% 16.4    15.7 0.7
14-2 91.5% 20.2    16.4 3.8 0.0
13-3 67.6% 14.1    9.1 4.8 0.3
12-4 37.2% 5.8    2.4 2.8 0.6 0.0
11-5 13.0% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 64.3% 64.3 50.2 12.8 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.5% 69.5% 69.4% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 0.3%
15-1 16.4% 61.2% 61.2% 12.4 0.0 0.8 5.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.4
14-2 22.1% 53.3% 53.3% 12.9 0.1 3.4 6.3 1.9 0.1 10.3
13-3 20.9% 45.8% 45.8% 13.3 0.0 1.0 4.9 3.3 0.4 11.3
12-4 15.5% 37.8% 37.8% 13.6 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.7
11-5 9.6% 31.0% 31.0% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.0 6.6
10-6 5.0% 27.1% 27.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 3.6
9-7 2.5% 20.9% 20.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.0
8-8 1.0% 21.4% 21.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
7-9 0.4% 10.5% 10.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.1% 10.8% 10.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 46.9% 46.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.0 11.7 18.0 10.9 2.6 0.3 53.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 11.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 3.0 7.6 52.7 33.7 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 0.4% 11.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 0.7% 12.0 0.7