IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.1	#154
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.0	#71
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.1	#163

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#155

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.8%	6.2%	2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.5	12.4	13.1

.500 or above	49.4%	53.2%	26.0%
.500 or above in Conference	47.9%	50.5%	31.4%
Conference Champion	6.2%	6.9%	2.3%
Last Place in Conference	9.8%	8.7%	16.9%

First Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	5.8%	6.2%	2.8%
Second Round	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 5	2 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 7	7 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 2	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	309	Detroit Mercy	W	77-66	86%
Nov 07, 2025	113	@ Oregon St.	L	67-73	28%
Nov 15, 2025	349	@ Chicago St.	W	78-69	80%
Nov 20, 2025	108	High Point	L	72-76	36%
Nov 26, 2025	207	@ Robert Morris	L	73-74	50%
Dec 03, 2025	364	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	91-65	99%
Dec 07, 2025	92	@ Yale	L	69-78	23%
Dec 13, 2025	112	@ Belmont	L	75-81	29%
Dec 17, 2025	110	Northern Iowa	L	69-70	48%
Dec 21, 2025	185	@ Charlotte	L	70-71	46%
Jan 01, 2026	127	Murray St.	W	70-69	54%
Jan 04, 2026	261	@ Valparaiso	W	75-73	58%
Jan 07, 2026	141	Southern Illinois	W	74-72	56%
Jan 10, 2026	109	@ Illinois St.	L	69-76	28%
Jan 13, 2026	110	@ Northern Iowa	L	66-73	29%
Jan 17, 2026	114	Drake	L	62-63	49%
Jan 20, 2026	241	Evansville	W	74-66	74%
Jan 24, 2026	107	@ Bradley	L	67-74	27%
Jan 27, 2026	170	Indiana St.	W	82-78	63%
Jan 31, 2026	141	@ Southern Illinois	L	71-75	37%
Feb 03, 2026	127	@ Murray St.	L	67-72	34%
Feb 06, 2026	112	Belmont	L	77-78	48%
Feb 12, 2026	114	@ Drake	L	59-65	31%
Feb 15, 2026	109	Illinois St.	L	72-73	47%
Feb 18, 2026	241	@ Evansville	W	71-69	56%
Feb 21, 2026	261	Valparaiso	W	78-70	75%
Feb 24, 2026	107	Bradley	L	70-71	47%
Mar 01, 2026	170	@ Indiana St.	L	79-81	44%
Projected Record						14 - 14	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.6	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1		6.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	1.7	2.5	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0				7.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.5	3.1	1.6	0.4	0.1						8.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	3.0	3.6	1.6	0.2	0.0							9.3	4th
5th									0.1	0.8	3.3	4.0	1.5	0.2	0.0								9.9	5th
6th								0.1	1.0	3.6	4.4	1.5	0.1	0.0									10.8	6th
7th							0.1	1.2	3.8	4.2	1.4	0.1											10.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.4	4.0	3.9	1.4	0.1												11.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.5	2.0	3.6	3.4	1.1	0.1	0.0												10.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	1.0	2.2	2.9	2.2	0.6	0.0														9.1	10th
11th	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.7	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.0															6.3	11th

Total	0.2	0.5	1.5	2.7	4.2	6.1	7.6	9.3	10.0	10.1	10.1	9.3	8.4	6.8	5.1	3.6	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.1			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
18-2	98.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
17-3	88.1%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
16-4	66.7%	1.6		1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
15-5	41.9%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
14-6	16.5%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.2%	6.2		3.7	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		61.2%	44.4%	16.9%	7.4					0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		30.3%
19-1	0.2%		55.8%	52.0%	3.8%	9.5					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		7.9%
18-2	0.6%		46.1%	42.8%	3.3%	10.9										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.3		5.7%
17-3	1.4%		30.6%	30.0%	0.6%	11.3										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0				1.0		0.8%
16-4	2.4%		27.3%	27.1%	0.2%	11.6											0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0				1.7		0.2%
15-5	3.6%		20.8%	20.8%		12.0											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0			2.8
14-6	5.1%		17.3%	17.3%		12.4												0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.2
13-7	6.8%		11.0%	11.0%		12.6												0.0	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		6.0
12-8	8.4%		7.7%	7.7%		12.9												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0		7.7
11-9	9.3%		5.4%	5.4%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0		8.8
10-10	10.1%		3.7%	3.7%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.7
9-11	10.1%		1.6%	1.6%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.0
8-12	10.0%		0.8%	0.8%		17.1													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	9.9
7-13	9.3%		0.7%	0.7%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.2
6-14	7.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
5-15	6.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	6.1
4-16	4.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.2
3-17	2.7%																							2.7
2-18	1.5%																							1.5
1-19	0.5%																							0.5
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.8%	5.7%	0.1%	12.5					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.1	2.1	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.2	94.2		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.0				100.0
Lose Out	0.0%