Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#204
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#285
Pace72.0#120
Improvement-3.0#340

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#225
First Shot-5.9#331
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#19
Layup/Dunks-0.9#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#348
Freethrows+3.2#37
Improvement-1.9#321

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#179
First Shot+0.9#142
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#287
Layups/Dunks-0.9#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#267
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement-1.1#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.6% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.5 14.5
.500 or above 12.8% 30.4% 10.6%
.500 or above in Conference 21.6% 34.5% 20.0%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.5% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 20.4% 12.6% 21.4%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.4% 2.6% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Away) - 10.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 34 - 95 - 16
Quad 46 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 293 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 77%     1 - 0 +9.6 +2.3 +5.0
  Fri, Nov 7 165 @Oregon St. L 73-76 31%     1 - 1 -0.6 +1.9 -2.5
  Sat, Nov 15 352 @Chicago St. W 67-63 75%     2 - 1 -5.8 -4.6 -0.8
  Thu, Nov 20 97 High Point L 80-90 23%     2 - 2 -4.8 +3.2 -7.6
  Sat, Nov 22 314 Southern Indiana W 84-73 72%     3 - 2 +2.4 +4.4 -2.6
  Wed, Nov 26 186 @Robert Morris L 74-88 35%     3 - 3 -12.7 +4.7 -17.9
  Wed, Dec 3 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-63 89%     3 - 4 -16.8 -18.7 +1.9
  Sun, Dec 7 73 @Yale L 71-84 11%    
  Sat, Dec 13 90 @Belmont L 71-83 14%    
  Wed, Dec 17 98 Northern Iowa L 64-69 33%    
  Sun, Dec 21 181 @Charlotte L 69-73 35%    
  Thu, Jan 1 111 Murray St. L 78-81 38%    
  Sun, Jan 4 211 @Valparaiso L 69-71 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 143 Southern Illinois L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 92 @Illinois St. L 68-79 15%    
  Tue, Jan 13 98 @Northern Iowa L 61-72 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 124 Drake L 69-71 42%    
  Tue, Jan 20 265 Evansville W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 115 @Bradley L 68-77 21%    
  Tue, Jan 27 198 Indiana St. W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Jan 31 143 @Southern Illinois L 72-79 27%    
  Tue, Feb 3 111 @Murray St. L 75-84 20%    
  Fri, Feb 6 90 Belmont L 74-80 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 124 @Drake L 66-74 24%    
  Sun, Feb 15 92 Illinois St. L 71-76 32%    
  Wed, Feb 18 265 @Evansville L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 211 Valparaiso W 72-68 62%    
  Tue, Feb 24 115 Bradley L 71-74 39%    
  Sun, Mar 1 198 @Indiana St. L 75-78 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.3 0.9 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.6 5.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.1 5.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 17.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 5.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 16.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.9 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 13.2 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.7 8.4 11.2 13.1 13.3 12.3 10.6 8.1 5.6 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 83.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 52.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 29.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 21.2% 21.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 13.0% 13.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.1% 12.3% 12.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-7 2.2% 6.6% 6.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-8 3.7% 5.5% 5.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
11-9 5.6% 3.9% 3.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
10-10 8.1% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.8
9-11 10.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
8-12 12.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.2
7-13 13.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.2
6-14 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.0
5-15 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-16 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.4
3-17 5.7% 5.7
2-18 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%