Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 198
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 249
Pace 71.1 114
Improvement +2.5 86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 219 B- D D+ D- A
Defense C 185 C+ C D+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 28 B 63% 67 +6.3 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% 356 B 43% 50 -4.2 353
Three Pointers 46% 69 D 31% 302 +0.7 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.0 8 C+ +0.7 148
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 96
Second Chance D 24.8% 331 C 1.02 180 D 0.25 307
Turnovers D+ 18.7% 293
Freethrows D 0.26 320 D 68% 317 D- 0.18 333
Total Offense C- -1.9 219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 113 B- 55% 95 -0.3 190
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 90 F 46% 356 -2.9 349
Three Pointers 35% 326 B- 32% 79 +4.1 32
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +2.0 8 C+ +0.7 148
1st FG Attempt 1.00 144 C+ +0.9 144
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 290 B- 0.97 87 C 0.32 216
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 276
Freethrows B 0.26 41 C 72% 176 B 0.18 48
Total Defense C -0.5 185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 174 16.9 116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 205 0.19 256
Improvement +3.2 #45 -0.7 #237

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 27% 11% 35%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 8
Quad 33 - 94 - 16
Quad 45 - 410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 170 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 32% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C +0 C+ D+ C+ F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 232 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 44% +6  88% 1 - 1 B +8 F+ -9 D C- F A+ +17 A A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D- -11 D -5 C+ D+ D- C- -3 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 213 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 64% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +3 F -16 D- F C+ A+ +19 A+ B D+
 Sat, Nov 22 311 Ball St. W 70 - 52 82% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -4 C+ F+ D+ A +11 B+ C B+
 Wed, Nov 26 213 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 41% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 A F B+ D -6 D- F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 351 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 84% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -20 F -18 F C- F+ C- -2 F C A
 Sun, Dec 7 338 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 87% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 B- +4 A- F B B +5 C- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 269 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 53% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F C+ +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 119 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 42% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -2 C F A D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 90 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 15% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -11 D+ -3 B F C+ D- -9 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 78 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 26% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +5 C- -1 A- D+ C- B+ +7 A B B
 Thu, Jan 1 99 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 16% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C -1 B- +5 A+ F C D -6 D+ F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 182 @Drake L 72 - 74 35% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -0 B- +4 C A+ F D+ -4 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 275 Evansville L 69 - 72 76% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -13 F -12 F C B- C -1 F+ A B-
 Wed, Jan 14 90 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 31% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +8 A+ +23 A+ F+ A+ F -15 F+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 111 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 20% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ A- C- C -0 C+ D+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 119 @Bradley L 68 - 75 22% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D -6 A F F B +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 182 Drake L 62 - 76 58% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -18 F -20 D+ F F C+ +2 B- A D+
 Tue, Jan 27 128 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 24% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +3 B- +5 A+ A+ F C- -2 F A D+
 Sat, Jan 31 163 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 54% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -7 D -5 B- F+ C C- -3 B- C D-
 Tue, Feb 3 275 @Evansville W 84 - 63 55% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +17 A+ +18 A+ B+ B C+ +2 B- C+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 122 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 43% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -16 F -11 D- B F+ D+ -4 D A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 111 Murray St. L 72 - 74 39% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C -2 C- -1 A F F+ C -1 B- F A
 Sun, Feb 15 163 @Valparaiso L 68 - 73 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 99 Northern Iowa L 63 - 67 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 78 @Belmont L 73 - 86 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 122 @Southern Illinois L 68 - 76 23%
 Sun, Mar 1 128 Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 72 45%
Totals 9 - 20 4 - 16 -2 F -2 F C+ A C+ +0 D D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B B D C+ 45% 9% 46% A B- D C D D+ D D D- C B- F B- C+ 41% 23% 35% C+ C+ D+ B- C D+ B C B
1.06 63% 43% 31% +1 +2 1.07 25% 1.0 .25 19% .26 68% .18 1.09 55% 46% 32% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .32 15% .26 72% .19
Nov
3		 Charlotte C B C+ D- C 44% 10% 46% A C+ D- B D+ C+ B- C+ B- F C- A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D+ F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A+ F F+ 37% 8% 55% A D C+ D C- F C B- C A+ C A- A+ A 29% 45% 25% A+ A D- A+ A+ B+ B A- B+
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +1 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D C- F D C- 43% 6% 51% A+ C+ C+ F D+ D- B+ F C+ C- C- D C+ B- 53% 4% 44% D- C+ F F F C B- A- B
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- D- F D F C+ F B- F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ A- C B D+ D- A+ C
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. D+ B- A+ F+ C- 42% 8% 50% A C+ C+ F F+ D+ F A+ D- A A+ F A+ B+ 34% 30% 36% A- B+ F A C B+ A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A A F A- F B+ F A+ F D C- F A+ F 43% 33% 24% A- D- D+ F F C+ A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- F+ B+ A- A C- D- F C+ F 46% 20% 33% F+ F F A+ C A F+ A D+
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana B- A- F B B+ 52% 9% 39% A- A- F+ F F B F A+ F B A- B C- D+ 33% 25% 41% B- C- A+ A+ A+ F+ A- F C+
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F+ A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F+ F C+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D F F F D- F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley D+ C+ F C+ D+ 36% 11% 53% A+ C F F F A A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C 29% 34% 37% A B- C- D- D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C+ A+ F A D- F D- A D- 42% 32% 26% B D B+ A+ A F B+ F B-
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% A- A- C- D D+ C- A+ F C B+ A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A C- A+ B B B- F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C F F F D C F A+ C 65% 12% 22% F D+ F D F C- C- B- C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake B- B- F D D+ 39% 5% 57% A+ C B A+ A+ F A A+ A+ D+ B F D F 33% 29% 37% B F D- B+ C- C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B- F F 47% 13% 40% A F C C- C B- C D+ C C B+ D- F F+ 38% 23% 39% D- F+ A+ F A B- A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +7 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A+ A+ C+ F F+ A+ A+ B A+ F D+ F F F 33% 29% 37% A- F+ B F D- F+ F D F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D B- C 58% 22% 20% A- C+ C- A+ A- C- D F F C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F+ C+ D C D+ C- D A- C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- A- 40% 18% 42% A A F F F F F D+ F B A- A A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D 33% 17% 50% B D+ F+ F F F C+ F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D+ F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B- A+ A+ D+ A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F C- C D+ F F 45% 24% 31% C- F C A+ A D+ D+ D+ D+
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C+ 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F D- F+ C B F D+ C- A F A+ B+ 51% 29% 20% F B- F A C D- F+ B+ D
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B B+ B+ B F F F C+ A- F A+ C 17% 40% 43% A+ B- D+ B+ C+ D- D A C
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D- D- A+ B F+ D+ D D D+ D+ D C- D 46% 29% 25% C- D D- A+ A- C- A C- A-
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A 38% 10% 52% A- A C F F F+ A+ F A+ C D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% B- B- F C F A F B+ D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 2.9 1.6 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 13.1 33.4 29.5 9.8 0.7 86.4 10th
11th 5.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.6 11th
Total 18.8 36.0 29.8 12.6 2.6 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-14 12.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.6
5-15 29.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 29.6
4-16 36.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 35.9
3-17 18.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.7
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.8%