Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#265
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#276
Pace67.1#251
Improvement+0.8#137

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#297
First Shot-4.1#286
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#215
Layup/Dunks-1.6#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#324
Freethrows+1.0#125
Improvement-0.7#240

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#194
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#162
Layups/Dunks+4.8#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#278
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement+1.5#68
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 0.8% 4.0% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 6.0% 12.7% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 46.0% 31.5% 46.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 4.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 33 - 104 - 19
Quad 44 - 48 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 7 @Purdue L 51-82 1%     0 - 1 -7.7 -6.6 -5.3
  Wed, Nov 12 136 Middle Tennessee L 72-77 34%     0 - 2 -6.3 -3.2 -3.0
  Tue, Nov 18 191 Texas Arlington L 76-84 48%     0 - 3 -12.9 +4.2 -17.3
  Fri, Nov 21 165 Oregon St. W 73-69 32%     1 - 3 +3.4 +1.6 +1.9
  Sun, Nov 23 54 Akron L 59-97 8%     1 - 4 -27.8 -12.9 -15.0
  Mon, Nov 24 175 College of Charleston L 59-78 34%     1 - 5 -20.3 -15.6 -4.6
  Wed, Dec 3 310 Ball St. W 64-52 71%     2 - 5 +0.7 -10.7 +11.8
  Sat, Dec 6 128 @Western Kentucky L 79-80 16%     2 - 6 +4.1 +5.7 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 58 @Notre Dame L 59-77 4%    
  Tue, Dec 16 90 Belmont L 69-77 21%    
  Sun, Dec 21 124 Drake L 64-69 32%    
  Mon, Dec 29 115 @Bradley L 63-75 13%    
  Thu, Jan 1 92 @Illinois St. L 62-76 9%    
  Sun, Jan 4 98 Northern Iowa L 59-67 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 111 Murray St. L 73-79 28%    
  Sat, Jan 10 198 @Indiana St. L 70-76 29%    
  Tue, Jan 13 115 Bradley L 66-72 29%    
  Tue, Jan 20 204 @Illinois-Chicago L 68-74 30%    
  Sun, Jan 25 143 Southern Illinois L 69-73 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 124 @Drake L 61-72 16%    
  Sat, Jan 31 98 @Northern Iowa L 56-70 11%    
  Tue, Feb 3 198 Indiana St. L 72-73 50%    
  Fri, Feb 6 211 @Valparaiso L 64-69 32%    
  Mon, Feb 9 92 Illinois St. L 65-73 22%    
  Thu, Feb 12 143 @Southern Illinois L 66-76 19%    
  Wed, Feb 18 204 Illinois-Chicago W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 111 @Murray St. L 70-82 14%    
  Wed, Feb 25 90 @Belmont L 66-80 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 211 Valparaiso W 67-66 52%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 3.2 0.8 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.6 6.0 4.5 1.0 0.1 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.8 7.7 4.8 1.2 0.0 24.1 10th
11th 1.1 4.2 8.0 9.4 7.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 34.2 11th
Total 1.1 4.2 8.5 12.4 15.4 14.8 13.6 11.0 7.7 5.2 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 61.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 20.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 10.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 8.0% 8.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.9% 4.9% 4.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-9 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-10 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.8
9-11 5.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.2
8-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-14 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-15 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
4-16 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.4
3-17 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.4
2-18 8.5% 8.5
1-19 4.2% 4.2
0-20 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%