Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#268
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#315
Pace70.5#134
Improvement+1.1#103

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#275
First Shot+0.8#147
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#359
Layup/Dunks+0.6#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#88
Freethrows-2.4#313
Improvement-1.6#300

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#241
First Shot-3.1#280
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#108
Layups/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
Freethrows-0.2#202
Improvement+2.7#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 1.4% 3.7% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 11.2% 6.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.8% 33.4% 44.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 33 - 113 - 18
Quad 45 - 59 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 72   @ North Texas L 63-80 7%     0 - 1 -6.4 +5.1 -13.1
  Nov 13, 2024 130   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-80 16%     0 - 2 -12.2 -9.8 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2024 202   Radford L 81-92 46%     0 - 3 -15.8 +13.5 -30.5
  Nov 19, 2024 39   @ Ohio St. L 30-80 4%     0 - 4 -35.2 -35.1 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 331   Green Bay W 98-81 76%     1 - 4 +3.8 +4.0 -2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 269   Campbell W 66-53 62%     2 - 4 +4.2 -5.8 +10.8
  Dec 03, 2024 116   @ Murray St. L 61-63 14%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +4.2 -3.6 +7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 106   Western Kentucky L 65-79 25%     2 - 6 -12.7 -5.4 -7.1
  Dec 12, 2024 178   Chattanooga L 67-75 43%     2 - 7 -11.9 -6.4 -5.9
  Dec 18, 2024 162   @ Texas Arlington L 74-83 21%    
  Dec 21, 2024 285   @ Ball St. L 71-73 42%    
  Dec 29, 2024 191   Missouri St. L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 01, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 04, 2025 168   Indiana St. L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 08, 2025 160   Illinois St. L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 70   @ Drake L 58-75 6%    
  Jan 14, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 64-78 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 129   Belmont L 76-81 33%    
  Jan 22, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 29, 2025 116   Murray St. L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 02, 2025 129   @ Belmont L 73-84 17%    
  Feb 05, 2025 169   Southern Illinois L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 76   Bradley L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 12, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 16, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. L 76-84 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-77 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 70   Drake L 61-72 18%    
  Mar 02, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. L 66-75 22%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.7 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.9 1.3 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.2 2.0 0.2 10.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.1 6.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 15.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.1 7.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 20.4 11th
12th 0.9 3.2 6.7 9.0 7.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 30.1 12th
Total 0.9 3.2 7.0 11.3 14.1 15.0 14.1 12.0 8.9 6.2 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
10-10 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.7
9-11 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-12 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.9
7-13 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-14 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-15 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.0
4-16 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.1
3-17 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
2-18 7.0% 7.0
1-19 3.2% 3.2
0-20 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%