Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#142
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#154
Pace62.9#319
Improvement-2.2#280

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#166
First Shot+1.4#135
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#245
Layup/Dunks-0.5#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#156
Freethrows+2.3#51
Improvement-2.8#319

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#138
First Shot+0.9#148
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks-2.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#9
Freethrows-0.4#214
Improvement+0.6#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 7.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 65.4% 77.5% 53.6%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 83.0% 59.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.6% 6.9% 4.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 35 - 79 - 13
Quad 48 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 40   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 12%     0 - 1 -0.5 +1.4 -2.0
  Nov 16, 2024 111   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 33%     1 - 1 +26.9 +21.9 +5.7
  Nov 20, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 96%     2 - 1 -0.1 +3.1 -1.8
  Nov 22, 2024 140   Utah Valley L 75-77 61%     2 - 2 -3.2 +6.8 -10.1
  Nov 26, 2024 201   Texas Arlington W 79-66 63%     3 - 2 +11.1 +1.9 +9.0
  Dec 03, 2024 261   Evansville W 63-61 82%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -6.4 -4.7 -1.5
  Dec 08, 2024 269   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-53 84%     5 - 2 +11.1 +7.7 +6.2
  Dec 14, 2024 135   @ Western Kentucky L 76-81 OT 38%     5 - 3 -0.5 -3.4 +3.7
  Dec 18, 2024 213   @ Indiana St. L 74-84 56%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -10.0 -1.8 -8.1
  Dec 22, 2024 52   Nebraska L 49-66 20%     5 - 5 -6.5 -14.8 +7.2
  Dec 23, 2024 224   Charlotte L 90-94 2OT 69%     5 - 6 -7.7 +2.9 -10.0
  Dec 25, 2024 136   Loyola Chicago W 71-68 49%     6 - 6 +4.7 +4.2 +0.7
  Jan 02, 2025 144   Illinois St. L 68-74 61%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -7.4 -0.7 -7.4
  Jan 05, 2025 80   @ Drake W 66-59 21%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +16.9 +11.7 +6.6
  Jan 08, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa W 71-68 34%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +8.7 +9.8 -0.6
  Jan 11, 2025 214   Valparaiso W 58-47 75%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +5.4 -11.4 +18.0
  Jan 15, 2025 143   @ Illinois-Chicago L 93-97 2OT 40%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +0.2 +1.9 -0.9
  Jan 18, 2025 73   Bradley L 61-74 37%     9 - 9 4 - 4 -8.1 -4.7 -4.3
  Jan 22, 2025 190   @ Southern Illinois W 69-68 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 139   Belmont W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 261   @ Evansville W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 244   @ Missouri St. W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 04, 2025 80   Drake L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 214   @ Valparaiso W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 143   Illinois-Chicago W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 190   Southern Illinois W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 73   @ Bradley L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 25, 2025 213   Indiana St. W 80-73 75%    
  Mar 02, 2025 139   @ Belmont L 73-76 39%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 5.8 1.7 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.6 7.4 2.5 0.1 16.3 4th
5th 0.5 5.2 9.1 3.5 0.2 18.5 5th
6th 0.3 4.2 9.2 4.2 0.5 18.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.4 3.9 0.4 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.0 0.2 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.2 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.4 8.5 14.4 19.2 20.2 16.1 9.9 4.3 1.2 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 93.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 38.8% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.2% 22.4% 22.4% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
14-6 4.3% 16.2% 16.2% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.6
13-7 9.9% 10.7% 10.7% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 8.9
12-8 16.1% 8.3% 8.3% 12.9 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 14.7
11-9 20.2% 4.8% 4.8% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 19.2
10-10 19.2% 3.7% 3.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 18.5
9-11 14.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.1
8-12 8.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.1 0.0 8.3
7-13 4.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-14 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 1.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 94.4 0.0%