Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#136
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#163
Pace62.7#344
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 12.8% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 59.2% 75.5% 50.1%
.500 or above in Conference 64.6% 75.0% 58.7%
Conference Champion 10.4% 14.9% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 2.4% 5.6%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round9.1% 12.6% 7.1%
Second Round1.6% 2.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 49 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 35   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 12%     0 - 1 -0.7 +2.4 -3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-68 36%    
  Nov 20, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-58 96%    
  Nov 22, 2024 124   Utah Valley W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 25, 2024 160   Texas Arlington W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 03, 2024 248   Evansville W 73-64 78%    
  Dec 08, 2024 321   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-63 88%    
  Dec 14, 2024 118   @ Western Kentucky L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 18, 2024 207   @ Indiana St. W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 22, 2024 67   Nebraska L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 02, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 05, 2025 98   @ Drake L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 08, 2025 128   @ Northern Iowa L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 278   Valparaiso W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 162   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 90   Bradley L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 22, 2025 161   @ Southern Illinois L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 151   Belmont W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 248   @ Evansville W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 195   @ Missouri St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 98   Drake L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 278   @ Valparaiso W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 162   Illinois-Chicago W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 16, 2025 128   Northern Iowa W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 161   Southern Illinois W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 90   @ Bradley L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 25, 2025 207   Indiana St. W 76-69 72%    
  Mar 02, 2025 151   @ Belmont L 71-74 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.7 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.4 2.4 4.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 3.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.6 6.7 8.1 9.4 10.2 11.0 10.4 9.6 8.1 6.3 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 96.3% 1.4    1.3 0.1
17-3 85.6% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
16-4 64.6% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 33.7% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 12.3% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 6.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 77.4% 54.8% 22.6% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
19-1 0.5% 63.8% 53.0% 10.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 22.9%
18-2 1.4% 45.1% 42.1% 3.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.8 5.2%
17-3 2.7% 36.7% 35.9% 0.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 1.3%
16-4 4.2% 29.1% 28.5% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.0 0.9%
15-5 6.3% 21.2% 21.2% 12.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.0
14-6 8.1% 16.4% 16.4% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.7
13-7 9.6% 11.5% 11.5% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 8.5
12-8 10.4% 8.4% 8.4% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.5
11-9 11.0% 5.7% 5.7% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4
10-10 10.2% 2.8% 2.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.9
9-11 9.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.2
8-12 8.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.0
7-13 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.6
6-14 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-15 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-16 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.2% 9.0% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 90.8 0.2%