Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#116
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#126
Pace62.8#330
Improvement-1.3#270

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#129
First Shot+3.5#87
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#287
Layup/Dunks+1.1#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#124
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement-2.5#335

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#122
First Shot+1.1#142
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#146
Layups/Dunks-2.4#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#18
Freethrows-0.3#206
Improvement+1.1#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 11.6% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 76.3% 85.9% 65.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 87.0% 66.6%
Conference Champion 9.3% 13.3% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.4% 2.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round9.4% 11.5% 7.0%
Second Round1.6% 2.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 37 - 59 - 11
Quad 48 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 32   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 13%     0 - 1 +0.4 +3.1 -2.8
  Nov 16, 2024 130   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 43%     1 - 1 +25.8 +21.0 +5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 96%     2 - 1 +1.0 +3.3 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 165   Utah Valley L 75-77 74%     2 - 2 -5.5 +4.9 -10.4
  Nov 26, 2024 162   Texas Arlington W 79-66 63%     3 - 2 +12.8 +1.9 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2024 268   Evansville W 63-61 86%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -6.7 -8.2 +1.7
  Dec 08, 2024 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-53 89%     5 - 2 +9.8 +8.0 +4.6
  Dec 14, 2024 106   @ Western Kentucky L 76-81 OT 34%     5 - 3 +2.3 -2.4 +5.5
  Dec 18, 2024 168   @ Indiana St. W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 22, 2024 52   Nebraska L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 02, 2025 160   Illinois St. W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 05, 2025 70   @ Drake L 59-67 24%    
  Jan 08, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 15, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 76   Bradley L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 22, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 129   Belmont W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 29, 2025 268   @ Evansville W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 04, 2025 70   Drake L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 99   Northern Iowa W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 25, 2025 168   Indiana St. W 79-72 72%    
  Mar 02, 2025 129   @ Belmont L 74-76 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.9 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.3 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.1 4.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.5 3.9 0.9 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 4.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.8 11.2 13.1 13.3 12.7 10.6 7.6 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 96.4% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 83.6% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.0
16-4 58.0% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 27.4% 2.1    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.2 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 84.4% 53.1% 31.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
19-1 0.3% 49.7% 39.2% 10.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17.2%
18-2 1.1% 35.0% 33.7% 1.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.0%
17-3 2.5% 28.4% 28.3% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.8 0.2%
16-4 5.0% 24.2% 24.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 3.8 0.1%
15-5 7.6% 18.5% 18.5% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.2
14-6 10.6% 14.9% 14.9% 12.3 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 9.0
13-7 12.7% 11.7% 11.7% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.3
12-8 13.3% 8.3% 8.3% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.2
11-9 13.1% 5.3% 5.3% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.4
10-10 11.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8
9-11 8.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6
8-12 6.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-13 3.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-14 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.9 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 90.6 0.1%