Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#162
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#77
Pace74.9#54
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#176
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 9.1% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 56.2% 70.3% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 65.3% 50.6%
Conference Champion 6.8% 9.7% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.8% 7.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round6.6% 9.0% 4.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Neutral) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 48 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 110   Yale W 91-79 48%     1 - 0 +12.9 +9.5 +2.3
  Nov 12, 2024 50   @ Northwestern L 74-83 13%     1 - 1 +3.7 +5.7 -1.7
  Nov 21, 2024 126   James Madison L 77-79 42%    
  Dec 04, 2024 128   Northern Iowa W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 08, 2024 329   Dartmouth W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 15, 2024 279   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 78-75 62%    
  Dec 20, 2024 152   @ Seattle L 71-75 38%    
  Dec 29, 2024 173   @ Illinois St. L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 01, 2025 98   Drake L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 151   @ Belmont L 78-82 37%    
  Jan 07, 2025 195   @ Missouri St. L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 90   Bradley L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 136   Murray St. W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 278   @ Valparaiso W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 22, 2025 248   @ Evansville W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 161   Southern Illinois W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 90   @ Bradley L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   Indiana St. W 82-76 69%    
  Feb 05, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 161   @ Southern Illinois L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 11, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 16, 2025 195   Missouri St. W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 19, 2025 98   @ Drake L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 248   Evansville W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 128   @ Northern Iowa L 72-77 34%    
  Mar 02, 2025 278   Valparaiso W 80-71 79%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.5 2.7 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.4 2.6 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.2 6.0 8.0 9.5 10.7 11.1 10.7 9.9 8.3 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.7% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 86.0% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 61.6% 1.8    1.1 0.7 0.1
15-5 36.3% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 4.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 54.7% 43.4% 11.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.0%
18-2 0.7% 43.8% 40.5% 3.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 5.6%
17-3 1.7% 33.2% 32.0% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.1 1.8%
16-4 3.0% 26.3% 26.1% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.2%
15-5 4.6% 19.2% 19.2% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.8
14-6 6.5% 16.0% 16.0% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.5
13-7 8.3% 11.6% 11.6% 13.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 7.4
12-8 9.9% 7.7% 7.7% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.1
11-9 10.7% 5.3% 5.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1
10-10 11.1% 3.0% 3.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 10.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.4
8-12 9.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
7-13 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-14 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
5-15 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-16 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 93.3 0.1%