Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#215
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#156
Pace71.1#116
Improvement-3.3#342

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#203
First Shot-2.0#232
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#138
Layup/Dunks+0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#192
Freethrows+0.0#176
Improvement-3.4#361

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#214
First Shot-2.4#254
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#115
Layups/Dunks-2.9#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
Freethrows+0.7#137
Improvement+0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 19.3% 32.8% 14.5%
.500 or above in Conference 19.1% 25.3% 16.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 20.5% 15.2% 22.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 46 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 105   Yale W 91-79 34%     1 - 0 +13.5 +8.5 +3.9
  Nov 12, 2024 59   @ Northwestern L 74-83 9%     1 - 1 +3.2 +7.2 -3.8
  Nov 21, 2024 112   James Madison L 81-99 27%     1 - 2 -14.4 +2.7 -15.7
  Nov 22, 2024 155   La Salle W 96-83 39%     2 - 2 +13.3 +16.4 -4.1
  Nov 23, 2024 164   East Carolina L 55-72 41%     2 - 3 -17.5 -12.9 -6.1
  Dec 04, 2024 99   Northern Iowa L 56-83 32%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -24.7 -9.5 -18.9
  Dec 08, 2024 306   Dartmouth W 69-68 OT 78%     3 - 4 -9.8 -17.5 +7.6
  Dec 15, 2024 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 OT 46%     4 - 4 +6.4 +3.8 +2.3
  Dec 20, 2024 140   @ Seattle L 69-76 26%    
  Dec 29, 2024 160   @ Illinois St. L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 01, 2025 70   Drake L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 04, 2025 129   @ Belmont L 76-84 24%    
  Jan 07, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 76   Bradley L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 15, 2025 116   Murray St. L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 268   @ Evansville W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 29, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 168   Indiana St. W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 160   Illinois St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 11, 2025 116   @ Murray St. L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 16, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 70   @ Drake L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 268   Evansville W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 67-78 16%    
  Mar 02, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.5 1.2 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 15.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 5.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 15.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.7 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 12.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.7 5.1 8.5 11.8 13.8 14.2 13.0 10.9 8.0 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 67.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 39.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 18.6% 18.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 10.7% 10.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.7% 10.3% 10.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.7% 8.0% 8.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-8 3.2% 5.2% 5.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0
11-9 5.2% 3.2% 3.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0
10-10 8.0% 1.5% 1.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
9-11 10.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
8-12 13.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9
7-13 14.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.1
6-14 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.8
5-15 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.8
4-16 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-17 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%