Dartmouth
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#306
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#269
Pace72.4#85
Improvement+2.5#42

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#329
First Shot-1.8#222
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#350
Layup/Dunks-5.9#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#48
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement+1.5#64

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#243
First Shot-5.6#344
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#11
Layups/Dunks-7.0#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement+1.0#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.6
.500 or above 3.1% 4.0% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 11.5% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 49.0% 46.6% 55.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Home) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 83 - 11
Quad 45 - 68 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 277   Sacred Heart W 81-76 55%     1 - 0 -4.1 -4.1 -0.4
  Nov 13, 2024 248   Albany L 73-87 50%     1 - 1 -21.8 -7.0 -14.5
  Nov 16, 2024 252   @ Boston University L 50-78 29%     1 - 2 -30.2 -21.6 -9.5
  Nov 19, 2024 236   @ Marist L 62-75 26%     1 - 3 -14.0 -11.0 -2.7
  Nov 29, 2024 150   @ Boston College W 88-83 15%     2 - 3 +8.4 +12.0 -3.9
  Dec 03, 2024 354   @ New Hampshire W 69-65 58%     3 - 3 -5.9 -4.6 -1.3
  Dec 08, 2024 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-69 OT 22%     3 - 4 -0.7 -14.7 +14.1
  Dec 11, 2024 81   @ Notre Dame L 65-77 6%     3 - 5 -2.2 -1.8 -0.6
  Dec 14, 2024 151   @ Umass Lowell L 83-92 15%     3 - 6 -5.6 +8.6 -14.1
  Dec 18, 2024 338   Le Moyne W 75-69 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 194   Vermont L 63-66 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 284   Penn W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 119   Princeton L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 20, 2025 105   @ Yale L 67-82 8%    
  Jan 25, 2025 159   @ Brown L 64-75 16%    
  Jan 31, 2025 121   @ Cornell L 73-86 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 183   @ Columbia L 71-81 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 232   Harvard L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 14, 2025 183   Columbia L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 121   Cornell L 76-83 25%    
  Feb 21, 2025 284   @ Penn L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 119   Princeton L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 28, 2025 105   Yale L 70-79 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 159   Brown L 67-72 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 232   @ Harvard L 67-74 27%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 5.4 1.5 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.6 7.9 2.6 0.1 17.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.3 9.6 10.3 3.2 0.2 26.9 7th
8th 2.8 9.1 12.4 8.3 2.2 0.1 34.8 8th
Total 2.8 9.3 15.7 18.9 18.4 14.6 10.0 5.6 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-3 76.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
10-4 47.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
9-5 11.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.1% 12.3% 12.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 0.4% 13.4% 13.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-5 1.2% 9.2% 9.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
8-6 2.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
7-7 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.5
6-8 10.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.0
5-9 14.6% 14.6
4-10 18.4% 18.4
3-11 18.9% 18.9
2-12 15.7% 15.7
1-13 9.3% 9.3
0-14 2.8% 2.8
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%