Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #221
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 #221
Pace 74.2 #55
Improvement +4.9 #16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #210 C+ D+ D- C C
Defense #244 C C F B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.09 #262 -6.0 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #254 0.70 #258 -1.9 #275
Three Pointers 53% #12 1.15 #26 +9.7 #4
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #123 +1.9 #123
Freethrows 18.1 #164 72% #200 13.0 #161
Second Chance 26.4% #294 1.08 #137 0.28 #253
Turnovers 18.7% #312
Total Offense -1.5 #210

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #16 1.20 #237 -5.3 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #220 0.78 #207 +0.3 #166
Three Pointers 35% #333 0.86 #23 +5.8 #12
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #149 +0.9 #152
Freethrows 16.0 #90 72% #183 11.6 #97
Second Chance 30.5% #180 1.02 #157 0.31 #164
Turnovers 10.9% #365
Total Defense -2.1 #244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #206 1.5% #308
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.0% #109 -3.2% #124
Possession Length 16.9 #125 17.0 #119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #304 0.17 #190
Improvement +3.3 #33 +1.6 #85

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 7.4% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 22.3% 32.8% 10.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 77.2% 46.1%
Conference Champion 5.9% 8.8% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 3.4% 14.3%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
First Round5.1% 6.9% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 47 - 611 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 160 Marist L 56 - 75 48% -8  0 - 1 -22 -15 F D F -7 D+ C+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 343 @Bryant L 75 - 82 69% -1  0 - 2 -16 -5 C- F D- -11 F A F
 Sun, Nov 16 206 Appalachian St. L 77 - 85 59% -5  0 - 3 -14 -0 A D F -13 F B B
 Sat, Nov 29 220 @St. Peter's W 87 - 61 38% +7  1 - 3 +25 +22 A+ B+ A+ +5 A+ D- D-
 Wed, Dec 3 323 New Hampshire W 69 - 68 81% -2  2 - 3 -12 -7 C+ F F -5 B- A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 108 @Wyoming L 80 - 93 16% -1  2 - 4 -6 +7 A+ C+ F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 96 @Colorado St. L 55 - 76 13% -9  2 - 5 -13 -12 D+ F F -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 285 Boston University W 77 - 64 73% +9  3 - 5 +3 +1 C F D- +3 A+ B F
 Tue, Dec 16 320 @Holy Cross W 89 - 64 62% +11  4 - 5 +18 +17 A+ C+ F +2 A B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 270 @Sacred Heart L 63 - 85 48% -8  4 - 6 -25 -17 F C F -7 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 10 @Florida L 72 - 94 1% -21  4 - 7 +1 +6 A+ C- B -4 C+ D C
 Mon, Jan 5 168 @Harvard W 76 - 68 29% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +10 +12 A+ A- C -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 187 @Cornell W 102 - 91 32% +8  6 - 7 2 - 0 +12 +17 B+ A- A+ -5 B+ C- D
 Sat, Jan 17 182 Penn L 74 - 84 54% -1  6 - 8 2 - 1 -14 -5 D- D+ F -9 D- C F
 Mon, Jan 19 214 Princeton W 71 - 69 61% -3  7 - 8 3 - 1 -4 +8 C+ D+ A+ -12 D B F
 Sat, Jan 24 180 Columbia W 79 - 78 53%
 Fri, Jan 30 83 @Yale L 73 - 87 10%
 Sat, Jan 31 264 @Brown L 71 - 72 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 168 Harvard W 73 - 72 51%
 Fri, Feb 13 83 Yale L 76 - 84 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 264 Brown W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 180 @Columbia L 76 - 81 31%
 Fri, Feb 27 182 @Penn L 78 - 83 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 214 @Princeton L 72 - 75 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 187 Cornell W 91 - 90 55%
Totals 11 - 14 7 - 7 -4 -1 C+ D+ D- -2 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 1.0 7.3 8.8 3.3 0.4 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.9 9.5 2.2 0.1 0.0 20.0 3rd
4th 0.0 4.3 10.6 2.2 0.1 17.2 4th
5th 1.4 10.3 3.1 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.4 6.3 4.3 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 4.2 0.2 7.2 7th
8th 0.8 1.8 0.4 3.1 8th
Total 0.9 4.9 12.3 19.4 22.7 19.2 12.4 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
11-3 79.3% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
10-4 43.1% 2.6    1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
9-5 11.1% 1.4    0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.3% 29.0% 29.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
11-3 1.8% 18.5% 18.5% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.5
10-4 5.9% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 5.1
9-5 12.4% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 11.1
8-6 19.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 17.5
7-7 22.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.1 0.9 21.7
6-8 19.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.2
5-9 12.3% 12.3
4-10 4.9% 4.9
3-11 0.9% 0.9
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 15.2 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%