Dartmouth
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#206
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#230
Pace74.8#38
Improvement+9.2#1

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#270
First Shot+0.4#154
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#351
Layup/Dunks-6.2#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#24
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+3.4#42

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#142
First Shot-2.0#239
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#8
Layups/Dunks-4.4#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#184
Freethrows+1.7#71
Improvement+5.9#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.7% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 28.1% 45.5% 9.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 100.0% 81.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 2.3% 2.8%
First Round6.1% 7.8% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 49 - 712 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 274   Sacred Heart W 81-76 73%     1 - 0 -3.9 -4.7 +0.4
  Nov 13, 2024 267   Albany L 73-87 71%     1 - 1 -22.1 -6.0 -15.8
  Nov 16, 2024 300   @ Boston University L 50-78 61%     1 - 2 -33.3 -22.6 -11.6
  Nov 19, 2024 223   @ Marist L 62-75 43%     1 - 3 -13.7 -9.9 -3.6
  Nov 29, 2024 174   @ Boston College W 88-83 33%     2 - 3 +6.9 +11.4 -4.7
  Dec 03, 2024 355   @ New Hampshire W 69-65 80%     3 - 3 -7.2 -7.6 +0.4
  Dec 08, 2024 147   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-69 OT 29%     3 - 4 +2.3 -13.8 +16.2
  Dec 11, 2024 95   @ Notre Dame L 65-77 17%     3 - 5 -4.3 -3.8 -0.8
  Dec 14, 2024 225   @ Umass Lowell L 83-92 44%     3 - 6 -9.9 +5.5 -15.3
  Dec 18, 2024 357   Le Moyne L 76-80 90%     3 - 7 -20.4 -10.1 -10.1
  Dec 21, 2024 230   Vermont W 84-54 64%     4 - 7 +23.8 +15.2 +9.8
  Jan 11, 2025 260   Penn W 73-70 70%     5 - 7 1 - 0 -4.9 -5.6 +0.6
  Jan 18, 2025 162   Princeton L 80-81 51%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -3.6 +3.8 -7.3
  Jan 20, 2025 70   @ Yale L 67-83 11%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -5.4 -7.8 +3.6
  Jan 25, 2025 185   @ Brown W 84-83 36%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +2.1 +10.7 -8.6
  Jan 31, 2025 164   @ Cornell L 64-76 32%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -9.6 -10.0 +0.2
  Feb 01, 2025 275   @ Columbia W 95-89 55%     7 - 10 3 - 3 +2.2 +6.4 -4.9
  Feb 08, 2025 251   Harvard W 76-56 69%     8 - 10 4 - 3 +12.4 +7.0 +7.3
  Feb 14, 2025 275   Columbia W 78-56 73%     9 - 10 5 - 3 +13.1 +1.7 +12.6
  Feb 15, 2025 164   Cornell W 88-49 51%     10 - 10 6 - 3 +36.3 +3.1 +29.9
  Feb 21, 2025 260   @ Penn L 75-88 51%     10 - 11 6 - 4 -15.8 -8.5 -6.0
  Feb 22, 2025 162   Princeton W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 70   Yale L 72-80 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 185   Brown W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 251   @ Harvard W 72-71 49%    
Projected Record 12 - 13 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.5 16.5 19.9 4.2 41.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 9.1 19.2 0.7 29.0 3rd
4th 1.3 16.1 1.6 19.0 4th
5th 6.0 3.2 9.2 5th
6th 1.7 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 9.0 29.0 37.2 20.6 4.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 4.2% 15.4% 15.4% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.6
9-5 20.6% 8.9% 8.9% 15.2 0.1 1.4 0.4 18.7
8-6 37.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.8 0.6 2.7 33.9
7-7 29.0% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 1.4 27.7
6-8 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.4 2.2 4.5 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.4 7.7 46.2 44.6 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%
Lose Out 8.8%