Le Moyne
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#338
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#330
Pace70.3#141
Improvement-1.0#255

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#338
First Shot-3.6#284
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#327
Layup/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#296
Freethrows-0.7#229
Improvement-1.6#299

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#316
First Shot-2.1#239
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#335
Layups/Dunks-2.3#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows-1.6#289
Improvement+0.5#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.8% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 8.4% 16.6% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 49.5% 57.8% 46.4%
Conference Champion 5.3% 7.5% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 9.1% 13.8%
First Four5.7% 7.4% 5.1%
First Round2.4% 3.3% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 27.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1211 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   @ Syracuse L 82-86 5%     0 - 1 +4.4 +4.0 +0.7
  Nov 06, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge L 75-97 21%     0 - 2 -24.5 -5.6 -16.7
  Nov 13, 2024 9   @ Connecticut L 49-90 1%     0 - 3 -20.5 -11.4 -14.0
  Nov 16, 2024 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 52-71 4%     0 - 4 -9.9 -10.4 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin W 65-53 45%     1 - 4 +2.2 -14.1 +16.0
  Nov 23, 2024 190   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 61-82 12%     1 - 5 -19.4 -9.6 -10.2
  Nov 25, 2024 233   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 77-97 17%     1 - 6 -20.8 -3.0 -16.4
  Nov 29, 2024 316   @ Manhattan W 81-77 30%     2 - 6 -1.8 -0.9 -1.1
  Dec 03, 2024 305   Army L 100-103 3OT 49%     2 - 7 -13.8 -6.7 -6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 310   Binghamton L 62-72 50%     2 - 8 -21.2 -10.1 -12.1
  Dec 18, 2024 306   @ Dartmouth L 69-75 27%    
  Dec 22, 2024 81   @ Notre Dame L 59-80 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 314   @ Niagara L 67-72 31%    
  Jan 03, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 10, 2025 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-78 62%    
  Jan 12, 2025 360   Mercyhurst W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 20, 2025 323   Stonehill W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 24, 2025 222   Central Connecticut St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 339   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 290   @ Wagner L 56-63 26%    
  Feb 06, 2025 335   @ St. Francis (PA) L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 360   @ Mercyhurst W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 290   Wagner L 59-60 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 335   St. Francis (PA) W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 222   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-73 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 323   @ Stonehill L 67-72 33%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.5 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 6.5 5.1 1.1 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 6.3 5.7 1.0 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.3 6.1 1.1 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 4.4 5.6 1.3 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.1 1.1 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 7.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 6.4 10.1 13.2 15.3 14.9 12.8 9.7 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 93.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1
13-3 78.7% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
12-4 50.8% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-5 20.5% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 28.8% 28.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 26.5% 26.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
13-3 1.6% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.3
12-4 3.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.9
11-5 6.3% 14.5% 14.5% 16.0 0.9 5.4
10-6 9.7% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 1.0 8.7
9-7 12.8% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.0 11.8
8-8 14.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.8 14.1
7-9 15.3% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.6 14.6
6-10 13.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 12.9
5-11 10.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.0
4-12 6.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-13 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
2-14 1.5% 1.5
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%