IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.3	#202
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.5	#207

Pace	80.7	#10
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.8	#262

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.4	#153

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.1%	4.0%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.5	13.4	13.9

.500 or above	45.7%	57.0%	31.1%
.500 or above in Conference	47.2%	54.2%	38.1%
Conference Champion	2.8%	3.7%	1.6%
Last Place in Conference	6.9%	4.7%	9.7%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	3.0%	4.0%	1.8%
Second Round	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 6	4 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 4	14 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	113	@ St. Bonaventure	L	56-70	19%	0 - 1			-7.2	-18.7	+12.7
Nov 06, 2024	337	@ Le Moyne	W	97-75	70%	1 - 1			+14.1	+9.9	+2.1
Nov 16, 2024	296	@ Sacramento St.	W	69-67	56%
Nov 24, 2024	301	Utah Tech	W	81-76	67%
Nov 25, 2024	309	Denver	W	83-78	69%
Nov 27, 2024	218	@ Montana	L	74-76	41%
Nov 30, 2024	165	@ Montana St.	L	75-80	32%
Dec 05, 2024	155	UC Riverside	W	78-77	50%
Dec 07, 2024	333	@ Cal Poly	W	82-77	67%
Dec 18, 2024	65	@ USC	L	71-85	11%
Dec 21, 2024	342	Chicago St.	W	83-71	85%
Jan 02, 2025	262	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	72-73	50%
Jan 04, 2025	168	UC Davis	W	78-77	53%
Jan 09, 2025	60	UC Irvine	L	70-78	24%
Jan 11, 2025	261	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	72-73	50%
Jan 17, 2025	175	@ Hawaii	L	71-76	34%
Jan 23, 2025	250	Long Beach St.	W	83-78	67%
Jan 25, 2025	132	@ UC San Diego	L	70-77	27%
Jan 30, 2025	117	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	76-84	24%
Feb 01, 2025	261	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	76-70	69%
Feb 06, 2025	262	Cal St. Fullerton	W	76-70	69%
Feb 08, 2025	250	@ Long Beach St.	L	80-81	47%
Feb 15, 2025	333	Cal Poly	W	85-74	82%
Feb 20, 2025	60	@ UC Irvine	L	67-81	12%
Feb 22, 2025	168	@ UC Davis	L	75-80	34%
Feb 27, 2025	132	UC San Diego	L	73-74	46%
Mar 01, 2025	117	UC Santa Barbara	L	79-81	42%
Mar 06, 2025	155	@ UC Riverside	L	74-80	31%
Mar 08, 2025	175	Hawaii	W	74-73	54%
Projected Record						14 - 15	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.8	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.2	2.1	1.7	0.9	0.2	0.0				6.5	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.7	2.3	3.3	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0					8.8	3rd
4th										0.1	1.0	3.3	4.0	1.9	0.3	0.0							10.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.3	4.2	4.6	1.8	0.3	0.0								12.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.5	4.5	4.5	1.5	0.2										12.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.8	4.7	4.5	1.3	0.1											12.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.1	4.6	3.9	1.1	0.1	0.0											12.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	2.0	3.7	2.9	0.8	0.0													10.0	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	0.8	2.1	2.7	1.7	0.4	0.0														7.9	10th
11th	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.2	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0															4.0	11th

Total	0.1	0.3	1.0	2.0	3.7	5.6	7.9	9.8	11.1	11.5	11.3	10.3	8.4	6.7	4.6	2.8	1.7	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	95.6%	0.4		0.3	0.0
17-3	75.9%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0
16-4	42.7%	0.7		0.4	0.3	0.0
15-5	19.9%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-6	6.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.8%	2.8		1.5	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%												0.0			0.0								0.0
19-1	0.1%		35.5%	29.0%	6.5%	11.2									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		9.1%
18-2	0.4%		31.6%	31.6%		12.0												0.0	0.1	0.0				0.3
17-3	0.8%		24.9%	24.9%		12.4												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.6
16-4	1.7%		20.6%	20.6%		12.9												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.4
15-5	2.8%		17.6%	17.6%		13.2													0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0		2.3
14-6	4.6%		12.6%	12.6%		13.7												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1		4.1
13-7	6.7%		6.6%	6.6%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	6.3
12-8	8.4%		4.0%	4.0%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1		8.1
11-9	10.3%		2.0%	2.0%		14.3														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.1
10-10	11.3%		1.3%	1.3%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	11.1
9-11	11.5%		0.6%	0.6%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.4
8-12	11.1%		0.4%	0.4%		15.6																0.0	0.0	11.0
7-13	9.8%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		9.7
6-14	7.9%																							7.9
5-15	5.6%																							5.6
4-16	3.7%																							3.7
3-17	2.0%																							2.0
2-18	1.0%																							1.0
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.1%	3.1%	0.0%	13.5							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.1	96.9		0.0%