IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-14.2	#359
Expected Predictive Rating	-15.7	#354

Pace	72.3	#87
Improvement	-0.6	#229

Offense
Total Offense	-9.3	#361

First Shot	-7.9	#353
After Offensive Rebound	-1.3	#265

Layup/Dunks	-5.3	#335
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.1	#248
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.9	#152
Freethrows	-2.4	#312

Improvement	-1.1	#275

Defense
Total Defense	-4.9	#324

First Shot	-1.0	#198
After Offensive Rebounds	-3.9	#358

Layups/Dunks	-0.9	#207
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.8	#48
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.5	#166
Freethrows	-2.4	#320

Improvement	+0.5	#150

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.0%	3.5%	2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	21.2%	33.1%	21.0%
Conference Champion	1.0%	1.8%	1.0%
Last Place in Conference	32.6%	20.4%	32.8%

First Four	2.0%	3.5%	2.0%
First Round	0.6%	1.2%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 3	0 - 7	0 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 12	6 - 26

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	104	@ Loyola Chicago	L	72-79	3%	0 - 1			+0.8	+0.7	+0.5
Nov 09, 2024	211	Youngstown St.	L	60-80	20%	0 - 2			-25.4	-14.9	-9.8
Nov 12, 2024	33	@ Texas	L	58-105	1%	0 - 3			-31.7	-12.1	-15.1
Nov 16, 2024	56	@ San Francisco	L	37-82	2%	0 - 4			-32.5	-29.5	-1.1
Nov 19, 2024	218	Eastern Kentucky	L	66-86	21%	0 - 5			-25.8	-16.5	-7.8
Nov 22, 2024	168	@ Indiana St.	L	61-97	7%	0 - 6			-33.6	-15.7	-16.5
Nov 25, 2024	202	Radford	L	48-63	13%	0 - 7			-16.8	-20.8	+2.2
Nov 26, 2024	153	Drexel	L	71-83	9%	0 - 8			-11.7	+4.4	-17.1
Nov 30, 2024	35	@ Wisconsin	L	53-74	1%	0 - 9			-5.9	-12.0	+4.9
Dec 02, 2024	143	@ St. Thomas	L	76-98	6%	0 - 10			-18.2	-6.3	-9.2
Dec 08, 2024	135	@ Saint Louis	L	62-85	5%	0 - 11			-18.6	-9.2	-10.5
Dec 15, 2024	229	@ Mercer	L	63-75	11%	0 - 12			-12.6	-10.8	-1.9
Dec 19, 2024	102	@ Grand Canyon	L	64-86	2%
Dec 21, 2024	148	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	67-85	5%
Dec 29, 2024	16	@ Illinois	L	59-91	0.1%
Jan 03, 2025	290	@ Wagner	L	55-65	17%
Jan 05, 2025	337	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	67-73	28%
Jan 12, 2025	323	Stonehill	L	69-71	42%
Jan 18, 2025	338	Le Moyne	L	71-72	50%
Jan 20, 2025	339	Fairleigh Dickinson	L	79-80	50%
Jan 24, 2025	323	@ Stonehill	L	66-74	23%
Jan 26, 2025	222	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	60-74	10%
Feb 01, 2025	337	LIU Brooklyn	L	70-71	49%
Feb 06, 2025	360	Mercyhurst	W	69-66	62%
Feb 08, 2025	335	St. Francis (PA)	L	72-73	47%
Feb 13, 2025	339	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	76-82	29%
Feb 15, 2025	338	@ Le Moyne	L	69-75	29%
Feb 20, 2025	222	Central Connecticut St.	L	63-71	24%
Feb 22, 2025	290	Wagner	L	58-62	34%
Feb 27, 2025	360	@ Mercyhurst	L	66-69	41%
Mar 01, 2025	335	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	69-76	27%
Projected Record						6 - 25	6 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0			1.0	1st
2nd									0.0	0.6	1.3	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0				3.2	2nd
3rd								0.0	1.1	2.7	1.4	0.3	0.0						5.5	3rd
4th							0.0	1.2	4.0	2.4	0.3	0.0							7.9	4th
5th						0.0	1.2	5.3	3.6	0.4	0.0								10.6	5th
6th					0.0	1.3	5.9	5.4	0.7	0.0									13.3	6th
7th				0.1	1.8	6.7	6.9	1.2	0.0										16.7	7th
8th		0.0	0.5	3.0	7.6	7.2	1.8	0.0											20.1	8th
9th	0.5	2.2	5.2	7.2	5.2	1.3	0.1												21.6	9th

Total	0.5	2.2	5.6	10.3	14.7	16.5	15.9	13.1	9.5	6.1	3.2	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0				Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	96.3%	0.1		0.1	0.0
13-3	80.4%	0.1		0.1	0.1	0.0
12-4	49.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0
11-5	22.5%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	5.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	1.0%	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1	0.0%																						0.0	0.0
14-2	0.1%		29.6%	29.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.0
13-3	0.2%		16.3%	16.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
12-4	0.6%		11.9%	11.9%		16.0																	0.1	0.5
11-5	1.5%		8.3%	8.3%		16.0																	0.1	1.4
10-6	3.2%		7.5%	7.5%		16.0																	0.2	3.0
9-7	6.1%		5.0%	5.0%		16.0																	0.3	5.8
8-8	9.5%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																	0.3	9.2
7-9	13.1%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																	0.4	12.7
6-10	15.9%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.3	15.6
5-11	16.5%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.2	16.3
4-12	14.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	14.6
3-13	10.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.3
2-14	5.6%																							5.6
1-15	2.2%																							2.2
0-16	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	16.0																	2.0	98.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%