Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#208
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#196
Pace71.4#103
Improvement+2.0#92

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#292
First Shot-4.4#300
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#178
Layup/Dunks-4.7#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
Freethrows+2.4#46
Improvement+2.8#43

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#115
First Shot+2.6#98
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#232
Layups/Dunks-1.5#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#23
Freethrows-1.6#288
Improvement-0.9#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.1% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 91.8% 96.4% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 99.1% 94.4%
Conference Champion 12.4% 16.6% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round9.0% 9.8% 7.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 64 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 357   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 80%     1 - 0 +8.6 +2.1 +5.8
  Nov 11, 2024 36   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 6%     1 - 1 -18.7 -18.1 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 103   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 20%     1 - 2 -2.3 +4.8 -5.1
  Nov 21, 2024 267   Monmouth W 72-62 64%     2 - 2 +4.0 -6.9 +10.4
  Nov 22, 2024 273   Presbyterian L 42-67 65%     2 - 3 -31.4 -33.2 +1.0
  Nov 23, 2024 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 49%     2 - 4 -9.2 -7.8 -1.7
  Nov 27, 2024 304   Western Michigan L 62-73 79%     2 - 5 -21.7 -14.5 -7.6
  Dec 04, 2024 216   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 42%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +13.6 -3.6 +16.5
  Dec 07, 2024 178   Oakland W 66-50 55%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +12.4 +1.0 +13.8
  Dec 14, 2024 194   Toledo W 93-87 58%     5 - 5 +1.7 +11.8 -10.3
  Dec 18, 2024 177   @ Wright St. W 80-70 34%     6 - 5 3 - 0 +11.9 +6.0 +6.0
  Dec 21, 2024 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-64 73%     7 - 5 -0.7 -14.7 +12.9
  Dec 29, 2024 331   Detroit Mercy W 73-64 85%     8 - 5 4 - 0 -4.4 -11.6 +6.4
  Jan 01, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 77-61 69%     9 - 5 5 - 0 +8.5 +3.1 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2025 145   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-90 27%     9 - 6 5 - 1 -4.9 -3.0 -0.8
  Jan 08, 2025 235   Northern Kentucky W 72-61 67%     10 - 6 6 - 1 +4.1 +1.9 +2.7
  Jan 11, 2025 173   Cleveland St. L 72-80 53%     10 - 7 6 - 2 -11.2 -0.9 -10.4
  Jan 17, 2025 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-79 30%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -12.0 -7.3 -4.7
  Jan 19, 2025 333   @ Green Bay W 73-69 72%     11 - 8 7 - 3 -4.5 -0.9 -3.4
  Jan 22, 2025 216   Robert Morris W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 177   Wright St. W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 06, 2025 178   @ Oakland L 63-67 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 331   @ Detroit Mercy W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 145   Purdue Fort Wayne L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 16, 2025 173   @ Cleveland St. L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 21, 2025 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 333   Green Bay W 79-67 87%    
  Mar 01, 2025 235   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.2 5.5 2.7 0.7 12.4 1st
2nd 0.3 5.7 10.2 4.0 0.4 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 12.1 4.4 0.2 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 10.0 5.4 0.3 18.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.6 6.0 0.4 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.1 0.7 9.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.2 7.2 13.9 20.8 23.9 18.0 9.7 3.1 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-4 87.5% 2.7    2.0 0.7 0.0
15-5 57.2% 5.5    2.2 2.5 0.8 0.0
14-6 17.5% 3.2    0.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 5.2 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.7% 11.8% 11.8% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 3.1% 20.5% 20.5% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 2.5
15-5 9.7% 16.1% 16.1% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 8.1
14-6 18.0% 12.5% 12.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.5 15.8
13-7 23.9% 9.2% 9.2% 15.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 21.7
12-8 20.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.5 0.0 0.6 0.8 19.4
11-9 13.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.2 0.4 13.3
10-10 7.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 6.9
9-11 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.1
8-12 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.3 1.5 4.6 2.8 90.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%