Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#211
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#214
Pace71.2#114
Improvement+3.5#17

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#291
First Shot-4.2#302
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#173
Layup/Dunks-3.1#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#223
Freethrows+2.4#57
Improvement+3.2#13

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#118
First Shot+2.7#99
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#271
Layups/Dunks-1.4#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#32
Freethrows-1.7#294
Improvement+0.3#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 11.7% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 70.0% 85.4% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 93.7% 79.4%
Conference Champion 13.3% 25.8% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round8.0% 11.4% 6.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 413 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 359   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 80%     1 - 0 +8.8 +0.8 +7.3
  Nov 11, 2024 39   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 6%     1 - 1 -19.2 -19.0 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2024 97   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 16%     1 - 2 -0.6 +4.0 -2.6
  Nov 21, 2024 273   Monmouth W 72-62 63%     2 - 2 +4.1 -7.2 +10.8
  Nov 22, 2024 250   Presbyterian L 42-67 60%     2 - 3 -29.9 -32.3 +1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 214   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 39%     2 - 4 -6.7 -7.1 +0.1
  Nov 27, 2024 295   Western Michigan L 62-73 76%     2 - 5 -21.0 -14.2 -7.3
  Dec 04, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 50%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +11.5 -2.7 +13.5
  Dec 07, 2024 166   Oakland W 66-50 54%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +12.5 +2.5 +12.4
  Dec 14, 2024 206   Toledo W 93-87 61%     5 - 5 +0.7 +11.0 -10.5
  Dec 18, 2024 133   @ Wright St. L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 77-72 69%    
  Dec 29, 2024 320   Detroit Mercy W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 01, 2025 353   @ IU Indianapolis W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 152   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 08, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 241   Cleveland St. W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 17, 2025 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 19, 2025 331   @ Green Bay W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 22, 2025 259   Robert Morris W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 133   Wright St. L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 353   IU Indianapolis W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 06, 2025 166   @ Oakland L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 320   @ Detroit Mercy W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 12, 2025 152   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 16, 2025 241   @ Cleveland St. L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 21, 2025 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 23, 2025 331   Green Bay W 80-69 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-69 40%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.7 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.7 3.9 0.7 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.9 4.0 0.5 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.8 8.0 11.3 13.5 14.6 14.3 11.8 8.5 5.3 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.2% 1.0    0.9 0.0
17-3 93.3% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 76.0% 4.0    2.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 44.1% 3.7    1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.4% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 7.6 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 24.8% 24.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.0% 30.9% 30.9% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
17-3 2.5% 25.2% 25.2% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.9
16-4 5.3% 20.0% 20.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.2
15-5 8.5% 16.5% 16.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 7.1
14-6 11.8% 12.7% 12.7% 14.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 10.3
13-7 14.3% 9.3% 9.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 12.9
12-8 14.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 13.6
11-9 13.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 12.9
10-10 11.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 11.0
9-11 8.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.8
8-12 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.7
7-13 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-14 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.5 2.1 91.6 0.0%