Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#320
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#246
Pace67.6#219
Improvement+0.1#180

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#317
First Shot-7.1#347
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#71
Layup/Dunks-6.1#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#310
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement+0.4#154

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#294
First Shot-4.4#315
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#138
Layups/Dunks-1.9#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#335
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement-0.3#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 2.9% 7.7% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 32.0% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 5.5% 15.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 811 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-87 7%     0 - 1 -14.2 -3.4 -10.4
  Nov 10, 2024 314   Niagara W 84-78 OT 61%     1 - 1 -5.7 -2.1 -4.1
  Nov 16, 2024 206   Toledo L 67-82 37%     1 - 2 -20.3 -14.8 -5.0
  Nov 20, 2024 285   @ Ball St. W 70-59 31%     2 - 2 +7.3 -2.1 +9.9
  Nov 23, 2024 94   @ Wake Forest L 57-67 6%     2 - 3 -1.2 -6.4 +4.7
  Nov 26, 2024 247   Tulsa L 44-63 35%     2 - 4 -23.8 -26.9 +1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 98   Rhode Island L 75-81 10%     2 - 5 -0.6 +5.0 -5.7
  Nov 30, 2024 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 98-89 OT 38%     3 - 5 +3.2 +10.1 -8.0
  Dec 05, 2024 152   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 28%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -1.7 +3.1 -4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 133   Wright St. L 72-80 24%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -9.5 -1.0 -8.9
  Dec 14, 2024 124   @ Davidson L 51-86 10%     4 - 7 -29.7 -19.4 -11.8
  Dec 18, 2024 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-73 19%    
  Dec 22, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 1%    
  Dec 29, 2024 211   @ Youngstown St. L 65-74 19%    
  Jan 02, 2025 259   Robert Morris L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 09, 2025 353   @ IU Indianapolis W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 152   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-83 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 166   Oakland L 62-67 31%    
  Jan 22, 2025 241   @ Cleveland St. L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 133   @ Wright St. L 68-81 11%    
  Jan 30, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 331   Green Bay W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 05, 2025 259   @ Robert Morris L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 211   Youngstown St. L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 16, 2025 166   @ Oakland L 59-70 15%    
  Feb 19, 2025 353   IU Indianapolis W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 21, 2025 241   Cleveland St. L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 331   @ Green Bay L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 69-82 12%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 4.7 5.1 1.8 0.2 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 7.5 6.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 21.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 6.3 9.3 6.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 26.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 4.7 5.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.3 11th
Total 0.2 1.5 4.3 8.6 13.0 15.6 16.0 14.4 10.8 7.2 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 44.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 16.9% 16.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 7.1% 7.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
11-9 4.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.4
10-10 7.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.1
9-11 10.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.7
8-12 14.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-13 16.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.9
6-14 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
5-15 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-16 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-17 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%