Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.8#334
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#310
Pace67.0#209
Improvement-2.1#280

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#345
First Shot-8.1#355
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks-7.4#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#340
Freethrows-1.7#281
Improvement-1.7#267

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#264
First Shot-2.3#243
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#264
Layups/Dunks-0.9#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#299
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement-0.4#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.0% 3.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 46 - 98 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-87 7%     0 - 1 -16.1 -4.8 -10.9
  Nov 10, 2024 319   Niagara W 84-78 OT 54%     1 - 1 -5.8 -1.5 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 221   Toledo L 67-82 31%     1 - 2 -20.8 -15.0 -5.2
  Nov 20, 2024 261   @ Ball St. W 70-59 22%     2 - 2 +8.1 -3.3 +11.9
  Nov 23, 2024 55   @ Wake Forest L 57-67 2%     2 - 3 +3.1 -4.2 +6.8
  Nov 26, 2024 246   Tulsa L 44-63 28%     2 - 4 -23.8 -25.9 +0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 121   Rhode Island L 75-81 11%     2 - 5 -3.7 +3.3 -7.0
  Nov 30, 2024 291   @ Eastern Michigan W 98-89 OT 27%     3 - 5 +4.4 +10.1 -6.7
  Dec 05, 2024 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 20%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -0.9 +4.8 -5.7
  Dec 07, 2024 220   Wright St. L 72-80 31%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -13.8 -2.7 -11.5
  Dec 14, 2024 129   @ Davidson L 51-86 9%     4 - 7 -30.7 -19.9 -12.3
  Dec 18, 2024 241   @ Northern Kentucky L 60-73 20%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -14.9 -9.9 -5.5
  Dec 22, 2024 7   @ Wisconsin L 53-76 1%     4 - 9 -1.7 -9.8 +7.1
  Dec 29, 2024 186   @ Youngstown St. L 64-73 14%     4 - 10 1 - 3 -8.0 -12.4 +5.2
  Jan 02, 2025 173   Robert Morris W 78-76 OT 23%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -1.1 +1.5 -2.6
  Jan 04, 2025 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 56-64 17%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -8.8 -17.6 +8.7
  Jan 09, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis L 61-95 37%     5 - 12 2 - 5 -41.5 -16.2 -27.5
  Jan 11, 2025 153   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-90 10%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -19.9 -2.5 -18.7
  Jan 18, 2025 198   Oakland L 59-65 28%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -10.6 -7.1 -4.6
  Jan 22, 2025 170   @ Cleveland St. L 50-65 12%     5 - 15 2 - 8 -12.9 -15.4 +1.2
  Jan 25, 2025 220   @ Wright St. L 50-67 17%     5 - 16 2 - 9 -17.7 -19.0 -0.9
  Jan 30, 2025 241   Northern Kentucky W 68-57 35%     6 - 16 3 - 9 +4.0 -5.1 +9.5
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Green Bay W 67-57 62%     7 - 16 4 - 9 -4.0 -7.2 +4.1
  Feb 05, 2025 173   @ Robert Morris L 56-71 12%     7 - 17 4 - 10 -13.0 -9.9 -4.4
  Feb 08, 2025 186   Youngstown St. L 72-87 26%     7 - 18 4 - 11 -19.1 +3.3 -23.3
  Feb 16, 2025 198   @ Oakland L 83-93 OT 15%     7 - 19 4 - 12 -9.5 +0.0 -8.5
  Feb 19, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis L 71-80 57%     7 - 20 4 - 13 -21.6 -9.0 -13.0
  Feb 21, 2025 170   Cleveland St. L 65-73 23%     7 - 21 4 - 14 -11.0 -5.1 -6.1
  Feb 27, 2025 337   @ Green Bay L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-79 7%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 16.5 2.4 18.9 9th
10th 54.5 26.0 0.6 81.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 54.5 42.5 3.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 42.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 42.4
4-16 54.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 54.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 41.3%