IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#285
Expected Predictive Rating	-9.8	#318

Pace	66.5	#248
Improvement	-1.3	#271

Offense
Total Offense	-2.6	#242

First Shot	-1.0	#198
After Offensive Rebound	-1.6	#274

Layup/Dunks	-1.7	#246
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.6	#275
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.1	#208
Freethrows	+3.4	#30

Improvement	+2.4	#31

Defense
Total Defense	-4.0	#297

First Shot	-5.4	#340
After Offensive Rebounds	+1.3	#81

Layups/Dunks	-1.6	#234
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.7	#130
3 Pt Jumpshots	-0.1	#197
Freethrows	-4.3	#359

Improvement	-3.7	#359

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.8%	2.2%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.6	15.7

.500 or above	13.8%	19.3%	6.5%
.500 or above in Conference	37.4%	42.2%	30.8%
Conference Champion	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%
Last Place in Conference	9.8%	7.8%	12.5%

First Four	0.9%	1.0%	0.9%
First Round	1.4%	1.8%	0.9%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 8
Quad 4	9 - 9	10 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	253	@ Georgia St.	L	66-71	33%	0 - 1			-7.2	-5.5	-1.9
Nov 13, 2024	38	@ Dayton	L	69-77	3%	0 - 2			+6.8	+0.4	+6.5
Nov 16, 2024	168	Indiana St.	L	84-94	38%	0 - 3			-13.6	-4.1	-8.2
Nov 20, 2024	320	Detroit Mercy	L	59-70	69%	0 - 4			-22.8	-16.4	-6.9
Nov 25, 2024	218	Eastern Kentucky	W	63-61	36%	1 - 4			-0.8	-9.4	+8.7
Nov 27, 2024	205	Richmond	L	60-73	33%	1 - 5			-15.2	-4.8	-12.0
Dec 08, 2024	263	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	69-82	35%	1 - 6			-15.6	+1.5	-18.0
Dec 14, 2024	333	@ Bellarmine	W	86-82	53%	2 - 6			-3.4	+14.3	-17.3
Dec 21, 2024	268	Evansville	W	73-71	58%
Jan 04, 2025	115	@ Kent St.	L	59-72	11%
Jan 07, 2025	195	Miami (OH)	L	69-71	42%
Jan 11, 2025	265	Bowling Green	W	75-73	58%
Jan 14, 2025	161	@ Ohio	L	70-80	19%
Jan 18, 2025	206	Toledo	L	77-78	45%
Jan 21, 2025	219	@ Central Michigan	L	68-75	27%
Jan 25, 2025	344	@ Northern Illinois	W	73-71	56%
Jan 28, 2025	295	Western Michigan	W	74-71	62%
Feb 01, 2025	324	@ Buffalo	L	73-74	48%
Feb 04, 2025	146	@ Akron	L	72-82	18%
Feb 11, 2025	317	Eastern Michigan	W	75-70	67%
Feb 15, 2025	344	Northern Illinois	W	76-68	75%
Feb 18, 2025	206	@ Toledo	L	74-81	26%
Feb 22, 2025	324	Buffalo	W	76-70	69%
Feb 25, 2025	146	Akron	L	75-79	35%
Mar 01, 2025	265	@ Bowling Green	L	72-76	36%
Mar 04, 2025	219	Central Michigan	L	71-72	47%
Mar 07, 2025	195	@ Miami (OH)	L	66-74	24%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0			1.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.1	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0				3.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	1.9	2.1	0.6	0.0						5.0	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.6	3.1	0.8	0.1							7.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.7	4.3	1.4	0.1								8.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.6	5.5	2.3	0.2									10.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.5	6.2	3.2	0.3	0.0									12.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.3	6.3	4.2	0.6	0.0										13.5	8th
9th					0.2	2.0	5.6	4.3	0.8	0.0											12.9	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	1.7	4.5	3.9	0.8	0.0												11.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	1.6	3.3	2.6	0.7	0.0													8.5	11th
12th	0.1	0.4	1.2	1.8	1.4	0.4	0.0														5.3	12th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.4	3.6	6.6	9.7	12.6	14.1	14.1	12.5	10.0	6.9	4.2	2.3	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0				Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	91.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	76.8%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	46.4%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	18.8%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.4%	1.4		0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%																		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.1%		16.3%	16.3%		14.0														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.4%		17.7%	17.7%		14.1														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
14-4	1.0%		11.9%	11.9%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.9
13-5	2.3%		8.9%	8.9%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.1	2.1
12-6	4.2%		4.7%	4.7%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.1	4.0
11-7	6.9%		4.3%	4.3%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	6.6
10-8	10.0%		3.6%	3.6%		15.9																0.0	0.3	9.6
9-9	12.5%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																	0.3	12.2
8-10	14.1%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.2	13.9
7-11	14.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	14.0
6-12	12.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.6
5-13	9.7%																							9.7
4-14	6.6%																							6.6
3-15	3.6%																							3.6
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		1.8%	1.8%	0.0%	15.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.3	98.2		0.0%