Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#261
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#279
Pace66.1#234
Improvement+1.9#109

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#186
First Shot+1.2#130
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#279
Layup/Dunks+0.3#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#211
Freethrows+4.5#4
Improvement+4.1#26

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#320
First Shot-5.5#336
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#141
Layups/Dunks-2.1#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#221
Freethrows-3.9#359
Improvement-2.3#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.9% 8.0% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 41.7% 47.2% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
First Round1.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 54 - 7
Quad 49 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 252   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 39%     0 - 1 -7.5 -8.2 +0.5
  Nov 13, 2024 83   @ Dayton L 69-77 9%     0 - 2 +1.3 -2.4 +3.8
  Nov 16, 2024 203   Indiana St. L 84-94 47%     0 - 3 -14.8 -3.9 -9.6
  Nov 20, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy L 59-70 78%     0 - 4 -24.4 -15.5 -9.4
  Nov 25, 2024 191   Eastern Kentucky W 63-61 36%     1 - 4 +0.2 -9.5 +9.8
  Nov 27, 2024 218   Richmond L 60-73 41%     1 - 5 -16.2 -6.6 -11.2
  Dec 08, 2024 234   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-82 35%     1 - 6 -14.4 +2.4 -17.8
  Dec 14, 2024 340   @ Bellarmine W 86-82 64%     2 - 6 -5.1 +12.4 -17.1
  Dec 21, 2024 237   Evansville W 80-43 54%     3 - 6 +30.4 +13.7 +20.0
  Jan 04, 2025 137   @ Kent St. W 75-67 19%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +11.8 +1.6 +9.8
  Jan 07, 2025 171   Miami (OH) L 72-80 41%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -11.0 -2.5 -8.6
  Jan 11, 2025 301   Bowling Green W 91-69 68%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +11.6 +9.4 +1.3
  Jan 14, 2025 172   @ Ohio L 71-86 24%     5 - 8 2 - 2 -13.0 +1.0 -14.6
  Jan 18, 2025 221   Toledo L 75-93 51%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -23.8 +2.3 -27.7
  Jan 21, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan W 82-80 31%     6 - 9 3 - 3 +1.8 +5.9 -4.2
  Jan 25, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois L 66-76 65%     6 - 10 3 - 4 -19.3 -6.6 -13.1
  Jan 28, 2025 302   Western Michigan L 71-74 69%     6 - 11 3 - 5 -13.4 -0.6 -13.1
  Feb 01, 2025 352   @ Buffalo W 89-76 69%     7 - 11 4 - 5 +2.4 +11.1 -8.9
  Feb 04, 2025 102   @ Akron L 73-81 13%     7 - 12 4 - 6 -1.1 +7.3 -8.9
  Feb 08, 2025 280   Southern Miss W 77-76 64%     8 - 12 -8.1 +2.1 -10.2
  Feb 11, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan W 86-84 OT 66%     9 - 12 5 - 6 -7.6 +4.7 -12.4
  Feb 15, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 89-83 OT 80%     10 - 12 6 - 6 -8.4 +0.7 -9.8
  Feb 18, 2025 221   @ Toledo L 66-67 32%     10 - 13 6 - 7 -1.7 -1.9 +0.1
  Feb 22, 2025 352   Buffalo W 80-70 84%    
  Feb 25, 2025 102   Akron L 75-82 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 301   @ Bowling Green L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 04, 2025 215   Central Michigan L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 07, 2025 171   @ Miami (OH) L 72-80 23%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.6 0.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 0.7 3.4 4th
5th 0.1 5.2 6.2 0.2 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 10.9 20.8 2.4 0.0 34.2 6th
7th 1.9 18.7 2.7 0.0 23.4 7th
8th 0.0 9.3 5.3 0.1 14.7 8th
9th 0.9 7.9 0.2 9.0 9th
10th 1.8 1.2 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.7 20.3 35.3 28.9 11.3 1.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
10-8 11.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.1 0.3 10.9
9-9 28.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.1 0.9 27.9
8-10 35.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 34.8
7-11 20.3% 20.3
6-12 2.7% 2.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.3 1.6 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 2.7%