SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#263
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#195
Pace66.8#238
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#299
First Shot-7.4#350
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#35
Layup/Dunks-4.0#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows-4.6#358
Improvement+0.9#108

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#203
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#76
Layups/Dunks+2.0#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#308
Freethrows-1.9#302
Improvement-0.7#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 22.2% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 74.9% 86.9% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 89.5% 72.5%
Conference Champion 21.7% 35.7% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.0% 3.9%
First Four6.5% 7.3% 6.1%
First Round13.0% 18.4% 10.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 415 - 917 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 46   @ Indiana L 61-80 5%     0 - 1 -5.2 -8.1 +3.6
  Nov 08, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 58-90 2%     0 - 2 -13.9 -4.5 -10.2
  Nov 12, 2024 168   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 22%     1 - 2 +7.4 +2.2 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 295   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 44%     2 - 2 +15.0 +6.5 +9.3
  Nov 16, 2024 352   Canisius W 76-58 75%     3 - 2 +5.3 -1.6 +7.7
  Nov 19, 2024 331   @ Green Bay L 57-82 56%     3 - 3 -32.2 -21.7 -10.1
  Nov 29, 2024 167   North Florida L 73-78 42%     3 - 4 -8.5 -7.4 -1.1
  Dec 08, 2024 285   Ball St. W 82-69 65%     4 - 4 +3.3 +9.5 -5.2
  Dec 19, 2024 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 65-69 35%    
  Dec 21, 2024 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 02, 2025 328   Western Illinois W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 07, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 327   @ Tennessee Martin W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 23, 2025 281   Southern Indiana W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 279   Morehead St. W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 328   @ Western Illinois W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 04, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 327   Tennessee Martin W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 321   Tennessee St. W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 281   @ Southern Indiana L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-66 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 5.6 5.1 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 21.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 5.3 5.3 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.2 4.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 1.0 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.2 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.6 8.0 10.1 12.0 12.5 12.4 10.8 8.7 6.0 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 99.8% 1.7    1.7 0.0
17-3 95.6% 3.4    3.1 0.3
16-4 85.2% 5.1    4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 63.9% 5.6    3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 34.3% 3.7    1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.1% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 14.3 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 57.4% 57.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.6% 55.6% 55.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.7% 48.9% 48.9% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9
17-3 3.5% 43.2% 43.2% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 2.0
16-4 6.0% 39.7% 39.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 3.6
15-5 8.7% 33.0% 33.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 5.8
14-6 10.8% 26.7% 26.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.9
13-7 12.4% 19.2% 19.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 10.0
12-8 12.5% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.1 1.4 11.0
11-9 12.0% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.1
10-10 10.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.7
9-11 8.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.8
8-12 5.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.5
7-13 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 4.1 10.9 83.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 6.5 58.1 32.3 3.2