Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#56
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#35
Pace71.1#109
Improvement-2.0#273

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#69
First Shot+0.8#150
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#17
Layup/Dunks+5.6#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#343
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement-2.5#311

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#48
First Shot+3.7#66
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#43
Layups/Dunks-0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#146
Freethrows+2.4#40
Improvement+0.5#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 4.4% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.8% 60.5% 34.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.5% 60.2% 34.5%
Average Seed 9.1 8.8 9.4
.500 or above 95.5% 99.4% 93.1%
.500 or above in Conference 48.0% 67.1% 35.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
First Round39.9% 55.6% 30.0%
Second Round16.5% 24.4% 11.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 5.1% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.7% 0.7%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 45 - 12
Quad 24 - 19 - 13
Quad 36 - 015 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 95%     1 - 0 +10.5 +2.0 +7.8
  Nov 10, 2024 344   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 98%     2 - 0 +20.5 +10.2 +9.3
  Nov 16, 2024 82   South Carolina W 87-71 72%     3 - 0 +20.1 +15.5 +4.2
  Nov 21, 2024 129   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 84%     4 - 0 +10.3 -2.2 +12.9
  Nov 27, 2024 27   Louisville L 61-89 36%     4 - 1 -14.3 -7.9 -5.6
  Nov 28, 2024 14   Gonzaga L 73-89 26%     4 - 2 +0.7 +0.4 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 81   Providence W 89-73 61%     5 - 2 +23.1 +24.4 -0.3
  Dec 03, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 89%     6 - 2 +22.9 +11.7 +8.7
  Dec 06, 2024 153   Miami (OH) W 76-57 87%     7 - 2 +17.0 +5.0 +12.9
  Dec 09, 2024 98   Minnesota W 82-67 77%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +17.3 +12.4 +5.2
  Dec 13, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 68-85 37%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -3.7 +3.4 -7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 156   Chattanooga W 74-65 87%     9 - 3 +6.7 -1.2 +8.3
  Dec 29, 2024 197   Winthrop W 77-68 90%     10 - 3 +4.6 -1.7 +6.0
  Jan 02, 2025 66   Rutgers W 84-74 66%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +15.7 +8.1 +6.9
  Jan 05, 2025 51   @ Penn St. W 77-71 37%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +19.3 +9.8 +9.5
  Jan 08, 2025 61   USC W 82-69 64%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +19.3 +10.6 +8.5
  Jan 11, 2025 50   @ Iowa L 60-85 37%     13 - 4 4 - 2 -11.6 -12.7 +1.7
  Jan 14, 2025 9   Illinois L 69-94 28%     13 - 5 4 - 3 -9.1 -2.1 -4.7
  Jan 17, 2025 36   @ Ohio St. W 77-76 OT 30%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +16.3 +10.7 +5.6
  Jan 22, 2025 55   @ Northwestern L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 26, 2025 25   Maryland L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 31, 2025 10   @ Purdue L 67-77 15%    
  Feb 04, 2025 18   @ Wisconsin L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 08, 2025 11   Michigan L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 11, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 14, 2025 31   UCLA L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 10   Purdue L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 51   Penn St. W 79-77 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 95   @ Washington W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 28   @ Oregon L 71-77 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 36   Ohio St. W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 1.6 0.2 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.5 3.8 3.2 0.3 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 5.8 1.0 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 7.1 3.3 0.1 11.6 8th
9th 0.2 4.6 6.0 0.6 11.4 9th
10th 1.5 7.4 2.3 0.1 11.2 10th
11th 0.2 4.5 5.1 0.4 10.2 11th
12th 1.4 6.1 1.7 0.0 9.2 12th
13th 0.2 3.1 3.7 0.2 7.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.0 0.0 5.2 14th
15th 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.1 3.3 15th
16th 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.9 16th
17th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 18th
Total 0.7 3.8 10.2 17.1 20.3 19.5 14.6 8.5 4.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 29.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.4% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-6 1.2% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 4.0% 99.5% 2.8% 96.7% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 8.5% 94.5% 1.5% 92.9% 8.2 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.5 94.4%
11-9 14.6% 84.8% 0.9% 83.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.3 3.3 1.0 2.2 84.6%
10-10 19.5% 64.9% 0.4% 64.4% 9.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 4.9 3.4 0.1 6.8 64.7%
9-11 20.3% 26.5% 0.2% 26.3% 10.6 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.2 0.4 14.9 26.3%
8-12 17.1% 5.4% 0.2% 5.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 16.2 5.3%
7-13 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.6%
6-14 3.8% 3.8
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.8% 0.6% 44.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 4.5 8.5 10.0 10.3 8.4 0.6 55.2 44.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%