Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#178
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#168
Pace67.1#233
Improvement+2.6#39

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot+3.6#83
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#289
Layup/Dunks+2.1#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#34
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement+2.2#34

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#256
First Shot-3.5#292
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#109
Layups/Dunks+1.5#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#299
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement+0.4#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 12.8% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 77.4% 92.6% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 83.8% 74.0%
Conference Champion 9.7% 14.5% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.9% 12.8% 8.6%
Second Round0.5% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 413 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 80   @ USC L 51-77 16%     0 - 1 -16.1 -13.6 -4.0
  Nov 07, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 74-86 8%     0 - 2 +2.6 +16.3 -14.8
  Nov 11, 2024 261   @ Austin Peay L 61-67 56%     0 - 3 -8.5 -5.5 -3.5
  Nov 14, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 76-62 78%     1 - 3 +4.8 -2.6 +7.3
  Nov 17, 2024 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 63%     2 - 3 +0.8 +3.9 -3.7
  Nov 25, 2024 321   Tennessee St. W 85-78 85%     3 - 3 -5.1 -0.7 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2024 176   Bryant W 84-76 61%     4 - 3 +4.2 +11.0 -6.6
  Dec 03, 2024 107   Lipscomb L 62-80 42%     4 - 4 -16.8 -7.2 -10.4
  Dec 12, 2024 268   @ Evansville W 75-67 57%     5 - 4 +5.3 +5.5 +0.2
  Dec 15, 2024 361   Alabama A&M W 85-63 93%     6 - 4 +4.3 +15.3 -8.1
  Dec 21, 2024 46   @ Indiana L 69-84 8%    
  Jan 01, 2025 229   @ Mercer L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 345   @ The Citadel W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 350   VMI W 81-67 91%    
  Jan 15, 2025 163   Wofford W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 126   @ Furman L 68-74 28%    
  Jan 22, 2025 109   Samford L 82-84 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 29, 2025 308   @ Western Carolina W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 229   Mercer W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 163   @ Wofford L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 126   Furman L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 109   @ Samford L 79-87 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 147   East Tennessee St. W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 308   Western Carolina W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 345   The Citadel W 77-63 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-71 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 350   @ VMI W 78-70 77%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.9 6.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.3 6.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 15.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.6 6.6 2.1 0.1 15.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.2 5.6 1.8 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.9 7.4 10.5 13.7 14.9 14.7 12.3 9.2 5.6 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 96.8% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 84.4% 2.5    1.9 0.6 0.0
14-4 56.5% 3.2    1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.3% 2.2    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 40.9% 40.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 38.1% 38.1% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.1% 34.0% 34.0% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7
15-3 3.0% 25.3% 25.3% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.6% 22.1% 22.1% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 4.4
13-5 9.2% 17.0% 17.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 7.7
12-6 12.3% 12.4% 12.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 10.8
11-7 14.7% 8.5% 8.5% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 13.4
10-8 14.9% 6.4% 6.4% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 14.0
9-9 13.7% 5.0% 5.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 13.0
8-10 10.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.2
7-11 7.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.2
6-12 3.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-13 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.6 0.7 91.0 0.0%