Bradley
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#73
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#57
Pace65.9#244
Improvement+1.3#123

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#87
First Shot+4.6#64
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#252
Layup/Dunks-2.5#276
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#10
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement-3.1#331

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#73
First Shot+4.6#48
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#237
Layups/Dunks+2.4#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#55
Freethrows-2.2#321
Improvement+4.5#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.8% 36.3% 29.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.5% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 62.1% 71.6% 47.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round33.5% 35.8% 29.8%
Second Round8.1% 9.4% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.3% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 24 - 44 - 5
Quad 311 - 215 - 7
Quad 410 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 269   Southeast Missouri St. W 88-60 93%     1 - 0 +19.1 +11.4 +7.3
  Nov 08, 2024 85   @ Washington St. L 74-91 43%     1 - 1 -7.5 +4.8 -12.0
  Nov 12, 2024 229   Texas San Antonio W 85-72 90%     2 - 1 +6.4 +0.2 +5.2
  Nov 16, 2024 356   Northern Illinois W 76-60 98%     3 - 1 -0.5 -0.4 +0.6
  Nov 21, 2024 167   Texas St. W 82-68 77%     4 - 1 +13.7 +9.3 +4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 177   Wright St. W 77-74 79%     5 - 1 +2.2 +11.5 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 111   Middle Tennessee W 80-69 67%     6 - 1 +14.1 +16.3 -1.2
  Dec 03, 2024 190   @ Southern Illinois W 83-60 72%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +24.5 +14.3 +10.8
  Dec 14, 2024 67   Santa Clara L 74-84 47%     7 - 2 -1.6 +9.1 -11.4
  Dec 18, 2024 75   San Francisco W 66-64 61%     8 - 2 +6.6 -7.1 +13.6
  Dec 21, 2024 346   Canisius W 92-59 97%     9 - 2 +18.3 +23.9 -0.3
  Dec 29, 2024 214   Valparaiso W 81-75 2OT 89%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +0.4 -3.1 +2.8
  Jan 01, 2025 213   @ Indiana St. W 90-89 OT 77%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +1.0 +1.6 -0.7
  Jan 04, 2025 244   Missouri St. W 69-60 91%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +1.7 +2.8 +0.1
  Jan 08, 2025 80   Drake L 57-64 62%     12 - 3 4 - 1 -2.6 -5.4 +1.8
  Jan 11, 2025 143   @ Illinois-Chicago W 61-60 63%     13 - 3 5 - 1 +5.2 -8.8 +14.0
  Jan 15, 2025 213   Indiana St. W 118-65 89%     14 - 3 6 - 1 +47.5 +28.6 +13.7
  Jan 18, 2025 142   @ Murray St. W 74-61 63%     15 - 3 7 - 1 +17.2 +8.9 +9.3
  Jan 21, 2025 139   @ Belmont W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 144   Illinois St. W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 29, 2025 143   Illinois-Chicago W 77-68 81%    
  Feb 02, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 139   Belmont W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 261   @ Evansville W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 12, 2025 190   Southern Illinois W 76-64 87%    
  Feb 16, 2025 80   @ Drake L 61-63 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 144   @ Illinois St. W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 142   Murray St. W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 26, 2025 214   @ Valparaiso W 75-67 75%    
  Mar 02, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 74-67 75%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.7 10.3 18.1 18.3 9.9 2.7 62.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 7.8 9.2 4.8 0.8 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 2.9 0.7 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.3 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 7.6 13.7 20.2 22.9 19.1 9.9 2.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7
18-2 100.0% 9.9    9.6 0.3
17-3 96.0% 18.3    15.9 2.4 0.0
16-4 78.9% 18.1    12.2 5.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 51.1% 10.3    4.5 4.8 1.0 0.1
14-6 19.6% 2.7    0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 62.1% 62.1 45.3 14.3 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.7% 64.2% 54.9% 9.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.0 20.7%
18-2 9.9% 45.0% 42.2% 2.7% 11.1 0.1 0.4 2.7 1.2 0.0 5.4 4.7%
17-3 19.1% 39.2% 38.7% 0.6% 11.5 0.1 3.4 3.9 0.2 11.6 0.9%
16-4 22.9% 34.5% 34.2% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 2.2 5.3 0.3 0.0 15.0 0.3%
15-5 20.2% 31.3% 31.3% 12.0 0.9 4.7 0.7 13.9
14-6 13.7% 27.8% 27.8% 12.1 0.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 9.9
13-7 7.6% 20.3% 20.3% 12.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 6.1
12-8 2.8% 15.9% 15.9% 12.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3
11-9 1.0% 11.7% 11.7% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-10 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 12.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.8% 33.1% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 10.0 19.2 2.6 0.1 66.2 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 8.7 0.7 0.7 5.4 8.2 11.6 12.2 22.4 15.6 22.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 22.6% 10.8 5.7 15.1 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 13.5% 10.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 5.4