Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#168
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#200
Pace77.2#24
Improvement+3.3#22

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#110
First Shot+5.6#44
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#10
Freethrows-2.7#326
Improvement+4.0#5

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#270
First Shot-4.9#328
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#56
Layups/Dunks-4.4#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#201
Freethrows-0.9#248
Improvement-0.7#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 38.2% 51.5% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.8% 61.7% 35.4%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 2.5% 7.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.8% 3.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 48 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 84   Florida Atlantic L 64-97 25%     0 - 1 -26.4 -18.3 -3.1
  Nov 12, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville L 72-77 78%     0 - 2 -13.6 -3.8 -9.7
  Nov 16, 2024 285   @ Ball St. W 94-84 62%     1 - 2 +6.3 +6.6 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 97-61 93%     2 - 2 +18.8 +14.1 +3.4
  Nov 25, 2024 281   @ Southern Indiana L 77-87 60%     2 - 3 -13.2 -4.5 -7.7
  Nov 29, 2024 111   Arkansas St. L 81-86 34%     2 - 4 -1.3 +7.2 -8.2
  Nov 30, 2024 257   Iona W 83-80 68%     3 - 4 -2.5 +6.0 -8.6
  Dec 01, 2024 303   Tarleton St. W 87-71 75%     4 - 4 +8.4 +13.5 -5.1
  Dec 07, 2024 191   @ Missouri St. W 80-77 42%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +4.5 +10.5 -5.9
  Dec 18, 2024 116   Murray St. L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 29, 2024 39   @ Ohio St. L 72-87 8%    
  Jan 01, 2025 76   Bradley L 77-82 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 268   @ Evansville W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 08, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso L 81-82 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 129   Belmont W 87-86 52%    
  Jan 15, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 74-85 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 70   Drake L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 21, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 80-81 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 70   @ Drake L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 11, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 160   Illinois St. W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 268   Evansville W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 129   @ Belmont L 84-89 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 116   @ Murray St. L 72-79 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 80-77 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.4 7.1 10.4 12.8 14.0 13.4 11.9 9.1 6.2 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 85.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 61.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 29.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 20.8% 20.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 24.3% 24.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 0.9% 13.6% 13.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
15-5 2.1% 12.0% 12.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-6 3.8% 11.0% 11.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
13-7 6.2% 7.3% 7.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.8
12-8 9.1% 5.0% 5.0% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.6
11-9 11.9% 3.2% 3.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.5
10-10 13.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.2
9-11 14.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.8
8-12 12.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 12.6
7-13 10.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-14 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.1
5-15 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 97.2 0.0%