Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#303
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#309
Pace66.8#237
Improvement+4.6#9

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#341
First Shot-3.6#290
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#326
Layup/Dunks-0.3#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#355
Freethrows+0.8#128
Improvement+2.7#22

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot-0.6#187
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#226
Layups/Dunks+5.9#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#339
Freethrows-1.2#265
Improvement+1.9#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.2% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.0% 17.3% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 46.8% 36.4% 47.4%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 32 - 93 - 17
Quad 44 - 67 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 49   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -20.7 -8.8 -10.1
  Nov 09, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 26%     0 - 2 -30.0 -18.0 -9.7
  Nov 12, 2024 65   @ Florida St. L 52-72 5%     0 - 3 -8.5 -16.1 +8.4
  Nov 17, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 41-104 2%     0 - 4 -44.1 -26.2 -17.3
  Nov 21, 2024 20   @ Michigan L 49-72 2%     0 - 5 -5.6 -10.9 +3.5
  Nov 29, 2024 257   Iona L 51-62 42%     0 - 6 -16.5 -16.4 -1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 156   Hofstra W 61-59 23%     1 - 6 +2.1 -0.4 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2024 168   Indiana St. L 71-87 25%     1 - 7 -16.6 -4.4 -12.2
  Dec 08, 2024 82   @ Central Florida L 51-66 6%     1 - 8 -5.3 -12.5 +6.1
  Dec 16, 2024 132   @ UTEP L 62-67 13%     1 - 9 -0.5 -1.3 +0.4
  Dec 18, 2024 85   @ Oklahoma St. L 64-81 5%    
  Dec 29, 2024 355   Florida A&M W 70-62 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 162   Texas Arlington L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 09, 2025 210   @ Southern Utah L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 298   @ Utah Tech L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 175   California Baptist L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 63-79 8%    
  Jan 23, 2025 188   @ Abilene Christian L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 30, 2025 298   Utah Tech W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 210   Southern Utah L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 140   @ Seattle L 62-74 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 165   @ Utah Valley L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 13, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 66-76 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 140   Seattle L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 162   @ Texas Arlington L 69-79 18%    
  Feb 27, 2025 188   Abilene Christian L 67-70 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 175   @ California Baptist L 63-73 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 165   Utah Valley L 65-69 36%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.1 0.2 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 6.8 5.8 1.1 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.9 10.0 7.3 1.5 0.0 26.3 8th
9th 1.5 5.7 10.1 9.8 5.5 1.1 0.0 33.7 9th
Total 1.5 5.8 11.6 15.9 17.7 16.3 12.8 8.5 5.3 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 92.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 56.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 28.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 8.0% 8.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 8.9% 8.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.5% 9.5% 9.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 1.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.2
9-7 2.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 2.6
8-8 5.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.2
7-9 8.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.5
6-10 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-11 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.3
4-12 17.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.7
3-13 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
2-14 11.6% 11.6
1-15 5.8% 5.8
0-16 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%