Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#273
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#234
Pace64.9#267
Improvement+5.7#13

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#346
First Shot-5.0#312
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#328
Layup/Dunks-0.2#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#356
Freethrows-0.6#212
Improvement+2.9#51

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#133
First Shot+2.0#110
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#234
Layups/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#313
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement+2.8#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.8% 71.3% 23.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 32 - 72 - 15
Quad 48 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 37   @ SMU L 62-96 3%     0 - 1 -18.9 -8.4 -8.7
  Nov 09, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 35%     0 - 2 -31.4 -17.6 -11.6
  Nov 12, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 52-72 8%     0 - 3 -10.6 -15.7 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2024 24   @ Baylor L 41-104 2%     0 - 4 -45.1 -25.7 -18.8
  Nov 21, 2024 22   @ Michigan L 49-72 2%     0 - 5 -4.8 -11.2 +4.5
  Nov 29, 2024 259   Iona L 51-62 46%     0 - 6 -16.4 -14.9 -2.7
  Nov 30, 2024 227   Hofstra W 61-59 39%     1 - 6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.1
  Dec 01, 2024 203   Indiana St. L 71-87 35%     1 - 7 -18.2 -4.5 -13.8
  Dec 08, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 51-66 8%     1 - 8 -5.4 -15.2 +8.7
  Dec 16, 2024 139   @ UTEP L 62-67 17%     1 - 9 -1.3 -2.4 +0.7
  Dec 18, 2024 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-66 10%     1 - 10 +3.1 -5.5 +8.5
  Dec 29, 2024 321   Florida A&M W 70-60 71%     2 - 10 -2.0 -9.7 +7.6
  Jan 04, 2025 205   Texas Arlington W 77-74 45%     3 - 10 1 - 0 -1.9 +0.6 -2.5
  Jan 09, 2025 282   @ Southern Utah W 74-66 42%     4 - 10 2 - 0 +3.9 +0.1 +3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech L 54-58 43%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -8.5 -17.1 +8.2
  Jan 16, 2025 158   California Baptist W 67-57 35%     5 - 11 3 - 1 +7.7 +5.6 +4.0
  Jan 18, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 64-88 9%     5 - 12 3 - 2 -15.6 -1.4 -14.5
  Jan 23, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian L 56-67 27%     5 - 13 3 - 3 -11.1 -14.0 +3.1
  Jan 30, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 61-54 63%     6 - 13 4 - 3 -2.6 -11.0 +9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 282   Southern Utah W 75-58 61%     7 - 13 5 - 3 +7.8 -0.5 +8.4
  Feb 06, 2025 165   @ Seattle L 54-91 21%     7 - 14 5 - 4 -34.7 -6.2 -35.4
  Feb 08, 2025 125   @ Utah Valley L 56-81 15%     7 - 15 5 - 5 -20.4 -9.5 -12.2
  Feb 13, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 60-64 18%     7 - 16 5 - 6 -0.7 -6.4 +5.6
  Feb 15, 2025 165   Seattle W 67-64 37%     8 - 16 6 - 6 +0.2 -6.9 +7.1
  Feb 22, 2025 205   @ Texas Arlington L 66-72 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 211   Abilene Christian L 63-64 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 61-70 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 125   Utah Valley L 62-68 31%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.6 6.8 1.0 15.6 3rd
4th 8.2 14.4 1.3 23.8 4th
5th 1.5 19.4 4.5 0.0 25.5 5th
6th 8.7 12.0 0.3 20.9 6th
7th 13.3 0.9 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 23.5 40.7 26.7 8.2 1.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 1.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-7 8.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.1
8-8 26.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 26.4
7-9 40.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 40.6
6-10 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.4
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 16.2%