Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#165
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#201
Pace69.8#158
Improvement-2.8#329

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#231
First Shot-3.4#278
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#107
Layup/Dunks+0.0#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#293
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement-2.5#338

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#123
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#12
Layups/Dunks-1.6#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#158
Freethrows-1.2#264
Improvement-0.2#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 11.6% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 47.8% 59.8% 35.1%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 72.3% 63.2%
Conference Champion 11.4% 13.5% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 3.4% 5.3%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round10.0% 11.5% 8.3%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 49 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 132   UTEP W 89-60 54%     1 - 0 +27.5 +9.0 +15.9
  Nov 14, 2024 302   @ North Dakota L 71-77 65%     1 - 1 -10.6 -6.8 -3.7
  Nov 22, 2024 116   @ Murray St. W 77-75 26%     2 - 1 +8.2 +10.0 -1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 348   West Georgia W 77-74 86%     3 - 1 -9.1 -3.3 -5.9
  Nov 27, 2024 109   @ Samford L 76-84 24%     3 - 2 -1.0 -3.9 +3.7
  Nov 28, 2024 131   North Dakota St. L 63-83 41%     3 - 3 -18.2 -1.9 -19.8
  Dec 03, 2024 87   @ Stanford L 63-77 18%     3 - 4 -4.8 -9.9 +5.8
  Dec 07, 2024 112   @ James Madison L 61-78 25%     3 - 5 -10.4 -4.5 -7.3
  Dec 11, 2024 302   North Dakota W 80-57 83%     4 - 5 +12.4 +4.3 +9.4
  Dec 14, 2024 173   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 40%     4 - 6 -1.8 -5.0 +3.1
  Dec 18, 2024 231   @ Idaho St. W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 21, 2024 208   @ Weber St. L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 188   Abilene Christian W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 09, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 175   California Baptist W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 162   @ Texas Arlington L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 298   Utah Tech W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 23, 2025 175   @ California Baptist L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 140   @ Seattle L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 70-78 22%    
  Feb 06, 2025 162   Texas Arlington W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 303   Tarleton St. W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 210   @ Southern Utah L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 298   @ Utah Tech W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 140   Seattle W 71-70 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 210   Southern Utah W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 06, 2025 188   @ Abilene Christian L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 303   @ Tarleton St. W 69-65 64%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.7 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.7 6.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.7 7.0 1.9 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.6 1.8 0.1 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.5 1.7 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.7 9.0 12.7 15.2 15.6 13.9 10.5 7.1 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 97.3% 1.5    1.4 0.1
13-3 81.9% 2.9    2.2 0.7 0.0
12-4 52.6% 3.7    1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
11-5 21.2% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 6.3 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 53.3% 53.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 37.6% 37.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.5% 39.0% 39.0% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.9
13-3 3.6% 31.7% 31.7% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.5
12-4 7.1% 27.4% 27.4% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.1
11-5 10.5% 20.4% 20.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 8.4
10-6 13.9% 13.8% 13.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 12.0
9-7 15.6% 6.4% 6.4% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 14.6
8-8 15.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 14.6
7-9 12.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.3
6-10 9.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.9
5-11 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.6
4-12 2.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.5 2.9 0.8 89.9 0.0%