Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#240
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#232
Pace72.6#80
Improvement-4.4#343

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#246
First Shot-4.7#306
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#76
Layup/Dunks-5.0#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#282
Freethrows-1.6#279
Improvement-4.4#356

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#227
First Shot-1.6#228
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#188
Layups/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#24
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 11.7% 26.0% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 20.8% 39.9% 15.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 26.3% 12.0% 30.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.2% 2.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Home) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 511 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 241   Florida International W 80-75 61%     1 - 0 -2.1 -4.7 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 222   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 57%     2 - 0 -0.1 +2.0 -2.1
  Nov 19, 2024 136   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 20%     2 - 1 +0.4 +6.3 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 290   @ San Diego W 72-67 51%     3 - 1 +0.3 -4.3 +4.3
  Nov 23, 2024 246   Idaho W 82-67 52%     4 - 1 +10.2 +21.3 -7.9
  Nov 26, 2024 31   @ UCLA L 43-88 4%     4 - 2 -29.3 -20.4 -8.1
  Nov 30, 2024 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 59%     5 - 2 +3.2 -0.2 +3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 66-102 2%     5 - 3 -16.3 -3.6 -9.3
  Dec 16, 2024 128   @ New Mexico St. L 69-72 19%     5 - 4 +2.0 -2.1 +4.2
  Dec 18, 2024 247   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-78 41%     5 - 5 -7.0 -4.4 -2.4
  Dec 21, 2024 264   Northern Arizona L 75-83 66%     5 - 6 -16.6 -4.7 -11.7
  Jan 04, 2025 83   @ Grand Canyon L 71-82 10%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -1.5 +1.8 -2.8
  Jan 09, 2025 262   Tarleton St. L 66-74 65%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -16.4 -8.0 -8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 201   Texas Arlington W 73-68 51%     6 - 8 1 - 2 +0.4 -4.5 +4.8
  Jan 18, 2025 150   @ Seattle L 52-75 22%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -19.3 -16.5 -3.6
  Jan 23, 2025 83   Grand Canyon L 73-81 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 172   California Baptist L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 201   @ Texas Arlington L 76-81 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 262   @ Tarleton St. L 68-69 44%    
  Feb 06, 2025 172   @ California Baptist L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 08, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 284   Utah Tech W 76-71 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 140   Utah Valley L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 27, 2025 284   @ Utah Tech L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 140   @ Utah Valley L 67-76 21%    
  Mar 06, 2025 150   Seattle L 71-74 41%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.2 0.2 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.5 2.8 0.3 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 8.6 4.3 0.5 16.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 9.5 5.4 0.5 17.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 8.6 6.4 0.7 17.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 7.0 6.5 1.1 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.5 2.4 5.7 4.9 1.0 0.0 14.6 9th
Total 0.5 2.6 7.7 13.6 18.2 19.6 17.0 11.4 6.1 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 58.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 11.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.2% 20.8% 20.8% 14.0 0.1 0.2
11-5 0.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.0 0.0 0.7
10-6 2.3% 6.4% 6.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 2.2
9-7 6.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.9
8-8 11.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.0
7-9 17.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 16.7
6-10 19.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.5
5-11 18.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.1
4-12 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.6
3-13 7.7% 7.7
2-14 2.6% 2.6
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%