Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#210
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#149
Pace72.6#80
Improvement-1.8#291

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#184
First Shot-2.5#251
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#79
Layup/Dunks-4.2#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#206
Freethrows-1.3#258
Improvement-2.1#324

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#230
First Shot-0.8#194
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#281
Layups/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#59
Freethrows+1.0#118
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.7% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 54.9% 69.1% 43.9%
.500 or above in Conference 49.3% 55.5% 44.4%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.4% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 8.1% 12.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.3% 6.7% 4.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 242   Florida International W 80-75 69%     1 - 0 -2.5 -5.4 +2.2
  Nov 16, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 76%     2 - 0 -4.0 +1.5 -5.5
  Nov 19, 2024 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 17%     2 - 1 +3.8 +9.5 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 315   @ San Diego W 72-67 63%     3 - 1 -0.8 -4.3 +3.2
  Nov 23, 2024 291   Idaho W 82-67 66%     4 - 1 +8.2 +20.7 -9.3
  Nov 26, 2024 17   @ UCLA L 43-88 4%     4 - 2 -27.0 -18.1 -8.1
  Nov 30, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 70%     5 - 2 +2.3 +0.5 +2.1
  Dec 07, 2024 21   @ Arizona L 66-102 4%     5 - 3 -18.7 -4.3 -11.1
  Dec 16, 2024 199   @ New Mexico St. L 69-72 36%     5 - 4 -1.8 -4.0 +2.3
  Dec 18, 2024 233   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 79-81 44%    
  Dec 21, 2024 286   Northern Arizona W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 73-83 17%    
  Jan 09, 2025 303   Tarleton St. W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 162   Texas Arlington W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 140   @ Seattle L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 23, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 175   California Baptist W 75-74 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 162   @ Texas Arlington L 78-83 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 303   @ Tarleton St. W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 06, 2025 175   @ California Baptist L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 188   Abilene Christian W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 298   Utah Tech W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   Utah Valley W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 188   @ Abilene Christian L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 27, 2025 298   @ Utah Tech W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 165   @ Utah Valley L 71-76 33%    
  Mar 06, 2025 140   Seattle L 74-75 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.7 1.3 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.6 1.6 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.4 6.8 1.9 0.1 15.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.1 6.0 1.7 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.8 1.0 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.8 10.2 13.2 14.9 14.8 13.0 9.4 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 98.2% 0.5    0.5 0.0
13-3 82.2% 1.4    1.0 0.3 0.0
12-4 54.7% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-5 22.9% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 20.9% 20.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 32.1% 32.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-3 1.6% 25.8% 25.8% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
12-4 3.5% 24.6% 24.6% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.6
11-5 6.3% 16.9% 16.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.3
10-6 9.4% 10.6% 10.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.4
9-7 13.0% 6.0% 6.0% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.2
8-8 14.8% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.3
7-9 14.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.6
6-10 13.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 13.1
5-11 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.2
4-12 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
3-13 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-14 1.5% 1.5
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.4 94.7 0.0%