UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#247
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#235
Pace73.0#71
Improvement-5.5#353

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#227
First Shot-1.5#218
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#225
Layup/Dunks+1.3#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows-3.0#342
Improvement-5.4#362

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#258
First Shot-1.8#235
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#267
Layups/Dunks-4.6#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#12
Freethrows-1.6#290
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.3% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.0
.500 or above 46.3% 61.1% 31.0%
.500 or above in Conference 42.6% 57.4% 27.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 1.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 2.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 412 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 67-87 6%     0 - 1 -6.7 -4.3 -0.8
  Nov 06, 2024 33   @ Creighton L 86-99 4%     0 - 2 +2.7 +13.4 -9.6
  Nov 15, 2024 279   Charleston Southern W 86-76 57%     1 - 2 +3.3 +1.2 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 66%     2 - 2 +16.0 +8.8 +8.1
  Nov 18, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 3%     2 - 3 +15.6 +18.8 -3.2
  Nov 25, 2024 350   Le Moyne W 97-77 84%     3 - 3 +4.6 +9.5 -6.4
  Dec 05, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin W 68-65 61%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -4.7 -3.4 -1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 231   Lamar L 52-84 57%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -38.7 -19.9 -20.2
  Dec 18, 2024 240   Southern Utah W 78-73 59%     5 - 4 -2.1 -1.2 -1.2
  Jan 04, 2025 343   @ New Orleans W 76-64 66%     6 - 4 2 - 1 +3.0 +3.5 +0.4
  Jan 06, 2025 220   @ SE Louisiana L 75-79 34%     6 - 5 2 - 2 -4.6 +5.1 -9.7
  Jan 11, 2025 169   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-79 25%     6 - 6 2 - 3 -2.6 +8.8 -11.9
  Jan 13, 2025 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 57-55 86%     7 - 6 3 - 3 -14.2 -13.6 -0.3
  Jan 18, 2025 316   @ Houston Christian L 57-66 55%     7 - 7 3 - 4 -15.1 -19.5 +4.5
  Jan 20, 2025 303   @ Incarnate Word W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 74   McNeese St. L 68-77 19%    
  Jan 27, 2025 205   Nicholls St. W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 03, 2025 289   @ Northwestern St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 231   @ Lamar L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 10, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 316   Houston Christian W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 17, 2025 303   Incarnate Word W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 205   @ Nicholls St. L 74-79 30%    
  Feb 24, 2025 74   @ McNeese St. L 65-80 8%    
  Mar 01, 2025 343   New Orleans W 83-73 82%    
  Mar 03, 2025 220   SE Louisiana W 73-72 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.6 4.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.6 5.2 6.3 1.2 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.6 5.4 8.7 2.1 0.1 16.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.6 9.5 3.1 0.2 0.0 16.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 7.4 3.9 0.3 14.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 5.9 4.5 0.4 12.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.4 3.2 0.5 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.9 12.2 16.6 19.8 17.9 13.4 7.2 3.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 6.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.8% 14.5% 14.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 3.2% 10.4% 10.4% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.8
12-8 7.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.9
11-9 13.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.1
10-10 17.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 17.6
9-11 19.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 19.6
8-12 16.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.5
7-13 12.2% 12.2
6-14 5.9% 5.9
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 98.4 0.0%