UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#233
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#187
Pace76.5#27
Improvement-3.8#348

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#187
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks+0.2#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#89
Freethrows-3.1#336
Improvement-2.6#339

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#278
First Shot-2.1#242
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#280
Layups/Dunks-3.9#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#35
Freethrows-1.3#270
Improvement-1.2#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.6% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 62.7% 73.3% 49.0%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 71.7% 60.9%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.1% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round4.5% 5.5% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 67-87 7%     0 - 1 -6.8 -4.2 -0.9
  Nov 06, 2024 36   @ Creighton L 86-99 5%     0 - 2 +2.1 +13.4 -10.2
  Nov 15, 2024 299   Charleston Southern W 86-76 63%     1 - 2 +2.7 +0.2 +1.3
  Nov 16, 2024 332   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 73%     2 - 2 +14.7 +7.5 +8.2
  Nov 18, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 5%     2 - 3 +12.1 +16.3 -4.2
  Nov 25, 2024 338   Le Moyne W 97-77 83%     3 - 3 +5.9 +11.2 -6.7
  Dec 05, 2024 214   Stephen F. Austin W 68-65 57%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -2.7 -2.9 +0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 179   Lamar L 52-84 50%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -36.0 -19.0 -18.4
  Dec 18, 2024 210   Southern Utah W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 346   @ New Orleans W 83-78 68%    
  Jan 06, 2025 230   @ SE Louisiana L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 190   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-81 31%    
  Jan 13, 2025 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 82-69 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 356   @ Houston Christian W 79-73 72%    
  Jan 20, 2025 307   @ Incarnate Word W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 92   McNeese St. L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 27, 2025 243   Nicholls St. W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 190   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 03, 2025 296   @ Northwestern St. W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 179   @ Lamar L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 10, 2025 214   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 356   Houston Christian W 82-70 86%    
  Feb 17, 2025 307   Incarnate Word W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   @ Nicholls St. L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 24, 2025 92   @ McNeese St. L 69-82 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 346   New Orleans W 86-75 83%    
  Mar 03, 2025 230   SE Louisiana W 75-72 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.3 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 4.0 0.7 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 6.1 9.1 12.0 14.3 14.6 13.3 10.5 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 91.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 73.6% 0.5    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 43.2% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1
15-5 18.1% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 34.6% 34.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.7% 30.3% 30.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.9% 23.7% 23.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4
15-5 4.1% 17.4% 17.4% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.4
14-6 7.4% 12.6% 12.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 6.5
13-7 10.5% 8.1% 8.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 9.7
12-8 13.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.6
11-9 14.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.2
10-10 14.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.1
9-11 12.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.9
8-12 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.1
7-13 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
6-14 3.4% 3.4
5-15 1.5% 1.5
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.9 0.8 95.4 0.0%