Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#35
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#35
Pace68.1#204
Improvement-1.2#261

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#11
First Shot+8.9#9
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#50
Freethrows+6.0#1
Improvement-0.5#219

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#90
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#169
Layups/Dunks+2.1#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#78
Freethrows-0.3#205
Improvement-0.7#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.6% 8.7% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 24.5% 24.6% 12.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.1% 71.3% 51.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.9% 70.2% 49.7%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.2
.500 or above 94.9% 95.1% 81.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.6% 55.7% 42.3%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 2.0% 5.6%
First Four7.5% 7.5% 8.2%
First Round67.2% 67.4% 46.9%
Second Round39.4% 39.6% 24.1%
Sweet Sixteen14.4% 14.5% 4.9%
Elite Eight5.3% 5.4% 1.6%
Final Four1.9% 1.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 9
Quad 27 - 212 - 12
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 330   Holy Cross W 85-61 98%     1 - 0 +11.0 +7.5 +4.5
  Nov 07, 2024 139   Montana St. W 79-67 90%     2 - 0 +10.1 +10.6 +0.4
  Nov 10, 2024 171   Appalachian St. W 87-56 92%     3 - 0 +27.3 +16.2 +11.4
  Nov 15, 2024 21   Arizona W 103-88 53%     4 - 0 +26.3 +20.6 +3.6
  Nov 18, 2024 233   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 95%     5 - 0 -3.8 +9.8 -13.7
  Nov 22, 2024 82   Central Florida W 86-70 70%     6 - 0 +22.7 +9.0 +12.1
  Nov 24, 2024 32   Pittsburgh W 81-75 49%     7 - 0 +18.4 +15.9 +2.6
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 74-53 99%     8 - 0 +3.8 -0.9 +5.9
  Dec 03, 2024 20   Michigan L 64-67 53%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +8.4 -0.5 +8.7
  Dec 07, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 74-88 28%     8 - 2 +4.3 +14.8 -11.4
  Dec 10, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 80-86 28%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +12.1 +11.7 +0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 74   Butler W 83-74 68%     9 - 3 +16.4 +15.4 +1.2
  Dec 22, 2024 320   Detroit Mercy W 85-61 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 43   Iowa W 84-80 65%    
  Jan 06, 2025 62   @ Rutgers W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 10, 2025 114   Minnesota W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 14, 2025 39   Ohio St. W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 80   @ USC W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 21, 2025 17   @ UCLA L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 26, 2025 52   Nebraska W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 29, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 59   @ Northwestern L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 04, 2025 46   Indiana W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 43   @ Iowa L 81-83 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 22   @ Purdue L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 18, 2025 16   Illinois W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 23   Oregon W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 96   Washington W 80-70 81%    
  Mar 02, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 71-77 29%    
  Mar 05, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 08, 2025 31   Penn St. W 80-78 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.6 1.7 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 3.6 0.5 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.5 1.6 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.2 3.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 5.1 1.5 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.8 3.6 0.3 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.7 0.2 7.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 7.0 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.5 0.1 5.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 11.6 13.9 14.9 13.7 11.4 7.8 4.7 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 92.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 35.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.1% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.7% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 4.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 7.8% 99.9% 10.3% 89.6% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 11.4% 99.3% 5.4% 93.9% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 13.7% 98.0% 3.6% 94.4% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.4 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.3 97.9%
10-10 14.9% 93.5% 2.4% 91.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.5 3.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 1.0 93.4%
9-11 13.9% 76.8% 1.3% 75.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 3.6 2.8 0.1 3.2 76.5%
8-12 11.6% 44.2% 0.4% 43.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 0.3 6.5 44.0%
7-13 8.6% 11.9% 0.1% 11.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 7.6 11.8%
6-14 5.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.7%
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 71.1% 3.8% 67.2% 7.5 0.3 1.0 2.9 4.4 6.9 9.0 10.1 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.4 0.7 28.9 69.9%