Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#12
Expected Predictive Rating+20.3#6
Pace69.9#143
Improvement+4.2#27

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#21
First Shot+6.1#40
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#45
Layup/Dunks+7.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#355
Freethrows+4.4#5
Improvement+2.8#45

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#13
First Shot+6.9#18
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#50
Layups/Dunks+5.9#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows+2.1#51
Improvement+1.4#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 9.4% 10.8% 4.0%
Top 2 Seed 29.1% 32.2% 17.5%
Top 4 Seed 72.2% 76.0% 57.8%
Top 6 Seed 92.9% 94.7% 85.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.8% 99.4%
Average Seed 3.6 3.4 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 44.3% 48.8% 27.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Second Round88.5% 90.0% 82.9%
Sweet Sixteen54.3% 56.1% 47.5%
Elite Eight25.5% 26.8% 20.4%
Final Four11.4% 12.1% 8.8%
Championship Game5.2% 5.4% 4.3%
National Champion2.1% 2.2% 1.5%

Next Game: Rutgers (Neutral) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 35 - 021 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 267   Monmouth W 81-57 98%     1 - 0 +15.3 +1.9 +12.6
  Nov 07, 2024 310   Niagara W 96-60 99%     2 - 0 +24.7 +16.1 +8.3
  Nov 12, 2024 6   Kansas L 69-77 41%     2 - 1 +11.5 +0.2 +12.2
  Nov 16, 2024 285   Bowling Green W 86-72 99%     3 - 1 +4.1 +7.5 -3.6
  Nov 19, 2024 115   Samford W 83-75 93%     4 - 1 +8.2 +6.8 +1.3
  Nov 25, 2024 94   Colorado W 72-56 85%     5 - 1 +22.0 +4.5 +17.8
  Nov 26, 2024 43   Memphis L 63-71 70%     5 - 2 +3.5 +2.6 +0.1
  Nov 27, 2024 26   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 63%     6 - 2 +16.8 +16.7 -0.3
  Dec 04, 2024 98   @ Minnesota W 90-72 81%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +25.8 +29.4 -2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 52   Nebraska W 89-52 81%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +44.8 +19.7 +24.7
  Dec 17, 2024 178   Oakland W 77-58 94%     9 - 2 +18.2 +11.4 +8.8
  Dec 21, 2024 108   Florida Atlantic W 86-69 93%     10 - 2 +17.7 +6.9 +9.9
  Dec 30, 2024 304   Western Michigan W 80-62 99%     11 - 2 +7.3 -2.2 +8.8
  Jan 03, 2025 36   @ Ohio St. W 69-62 57%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +22.3 +4.8 +17.6
  Jan 09, 2025 95   Washington W 88-54 90%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +37.2 +15.2 +21.0
  Jan 12, 2025 55   @ Northwestern W 78-68 66%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +22.8 +14.5 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2025 51   Penn St. W 90-85 81%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +12.8 +16.6 -3.9
  Jan 19, 2025 9   Illinois W 80-78 55%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +17.9 +11.5 +6.3
  Jan 25, 2025 66   Rutgers W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 28, 2025 98   Minnesota W 75-60 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 61   @ USC W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 04, 2025 31   @ UCLA W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 28   Oregon W 77-71 74%    
  Feb 11, 2025 56   Indiana W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 9   @ Illinois L 76-80 33%    
  Feb 18, 2025 10   Purdue W 73-71 60%    
  Feb 21, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 25   @ Maryland L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 18   Wisconsin W 77-73 66%    
  Mar 06, 2025 50   @ Iowa W 85-81 62%    
  Mar 09, 2025 11   Michigan W 78-75 60%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.9 13.1 13.1 8.0 2.6 0.5 44.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 5.1 10.7 5.9 0.9 0.0 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 7.2 3.2 0.3 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.6 0.2 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.4 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.4 3.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.6 10.5 16.2 20.0 19.3 14.0 8.1 2.6 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6
18-2 99.5% 8.0    7.7 0.3
17-3 93.9% 13.1    10.5 2.6 0.1
16-4 68.0% 13.1    6.3 5.8 1.1 0.1
15-5 29.7% 5.9    1.2 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
14-6 6.0% 1.0    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.3% 44.3 28.8 11.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.6% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 100.0%
18-2 8.1% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 1.8 2.9 3.6 1.4 0.2 100.0%
17-3 14.0% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 2.3 2.7 5.8 4.1 1.3 0.1 100.0%
16-4 19.3% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.8 1.5 5.7 7.7 3.7 0.8 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.0% 100.0% 17.4% 82.7% 3.5 0.4 2.8 6.4 7.0 2.9 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-6 16.2% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.4 0.1 0.6 2.9 5.3 4.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.5% 99.8% 8.9% 90.9% 5.3 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 5.6% 99.6% 4.9% 94.8% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 2.4% 97.5% 2.9% 94.6% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.4%
10-10 0.7% 94.0% 1.5% 92.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.9%
9-11 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 16.5% 83.3% 3.6 9.4 19.7 23.2 19.9 13.0 7.7 4.3 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 99.7%