Iowa
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#43
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#63
Pace77.7#18
Improvement+1.4#84

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#17
First Shot+9.5#5
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#244
Layup/Dunks+5.5#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#41
Freethrows-2.2#302
Improvement+2.7#23

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#106
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#192
Layups/Dunks-3.7#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#157
Freethrows+4.2#4
Improvement-1.2#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.5% 3.5% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.6% 10.7% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.5% 48.6% 27.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.0% 47.1% 26.7%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 9.0
.500 or above 85.3% 85.4% 61.6%
.500 or above in Conference 55.3% 55.4% 38.4%
Conference Champion 2.8% 2.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.9% 4.9%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 6.7%
First Round45.5% 45.6% 24.6%
Second Round24.8% 24.8% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 8.2% 2.2%
Elite Eight3.2% 3.2% 0.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 10
Quad 25 - 310 - 13
Quad 32 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 91-63 99.6%   
  Nov 07, 2024 223   Southern W 89-74 94%     1 - 0 +8.8 +12.1 -3.9
  Nov 12, 2024 228   South Dakota W 96-77 94%     2 - 0 +12.4 +10.9 +0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 68   Washington St. W 76-66 62%     3 - 0 +18.0 +1.3 +15.8
  Nov 19, 2024 288   Rider W 83-58 96%     4 - 0 +15.3 +3.2 +11.4
  Nov 22, 2024 47   Utah St. L 69-77 51%     4 - 1 +2.7 -5.4 +8.9
  Nov 26, 2024 334   South Carolina Upstate W 110-77 98%     5 - 1 +19.6 +16.8 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 59   Northwestern W 80-79 68%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +7.2 +12.6 -5.4
  Dec 07, 2024 20   @ Michigan L 83-85 27%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +15.4 +14.4 +1.1
  Dec 12, 2024 5   Iowa St. L 80-89 30%     6 - 3 +7.5 +12.6 -4.9
  Dec 15, 2024 346   New Orleans W 104-57 98%     7 - 3 +32.3 +25.8 +7.3
  Dec 21, 2024 66   Utah W 84-81 60%    
  Dec 30, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 91-64 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 80-84 35%    
  Jan 07, 2025 52   Nebraska W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 46   Indiana W 85-82 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 80   @ USC W 80-79 54%    
  Jan 17, 2025 17   @ UCLA L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 114   Minnesota W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 24, 2025 31   Penn St. W 85-84 55%    
  Jan 27, 2025 39   @ Ohio St. L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 04, 2025 22   Purdue L 80-81 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 35   Wisconsin W 83-81 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 62   @ Rutgers L 82-83 47%    
  Feb 16, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 79-85 28%    
  Feb 19, 2025 23   Oregon W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 96   Washington W 84-76 78%    
  Feb 25, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 80-87 26%    
  Feb 28, 2025 59   @ Northwestern L 73-74 46%    
  Mar 06, 2025 14   Michigan St. L 78-79 46%    
  Mar 09, 2025 52   @ Nebraska L 79-81 43%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.7 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.4 1.6 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.5 3.4 0.3 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.9 1.3 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.4 0.2 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 4.8 1.2 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.7 2.7 0.2 7.3 12th
13th 0.2 2.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 1.6 0.1 6.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.6 8.8 11.7 13.5 14.5 12.9 11.0 7.8 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 88.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 68.9% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.2% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.6% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.6% 99.6% 11.2% 88.3% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 7.8% 96.5% 6.9% 89.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.2%
12-8 11.0% 91.4% 3.9% 87.4% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.4 1.0 91.0%
11-9 12.9% 77.3% 2.0% 75.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.8 2.7 1.3 0.0 2.9 76.8%
10-10 14.5% 56.6% 1.7% 54.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.6 2.5 0.1 6.3 55.9%
9-11 13.5% 22.6% 0.8% 21.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.2 10.5 22.0%
8-12 11.7% 5.0% 0.3% 4.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 11.1 4.7%
7-13 8.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.2%
6-14 5.6% 5.6
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 48.5% 2.8% 45.6% 8.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.3 6.3 8.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 0.4 51.5 47.0%