Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.5 #23
Expected Predictive Rating +15.1 #30
Pace 62.0 #347
Improvement -1.0 #239

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #35 A+ B- B- B B-
Defense #17 B- A- A+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.32 #27 +6.0 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #237 1.03 #3 +1.2 #109
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.17 #19 +2.4 #103
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #3 +9.7 #3
Freethrows 19.1 #110 76% #56 14.6 #81
Second Chance 33.9% #93 1.08 #135 0.37 #88
Turnovers 15.2% #97
Total Offense +8.1 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.19 #228 -1.1 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.66 #48 +1.1 #109
Three Pointers 41% #199 0.89 #47 +2.7 #80
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #97 +2.7 #97
Freethrows 18.9 #256 71% #99 13.4 #226
Second Chance 26.8% #56 0.89 #25 0.24 #22
Turnovers 21.8% #6
Total Defense +8.4 #17

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #88 0.3% #189
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.3% #5 -5.5% #80
Possession Length 18.7 #310 18.0 #279
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #227 0.10 #22
Improvement -2.0 #298 +1.1 #113

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 10.0% 11.7% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 39.6% 43.6% 24.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.8% 94.5% 86.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.6% 94.3% 85.8%
Average Seed 6.9 6.7 7.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 84.7% 89.1% 67.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 3.4% 7.2%
First Round91.3% 93.3% 83.3%
Second Round63.4% 66.0% 53.1%
Sweet Sixteen25.3% 27.1% 18.6%
Elite Eight10.3% 11.1% 7.4%
Final Four4.1% 4.4% 2.8%
Championship Game1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 9
Quad 27 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 200 Robert Morris W 101 - 69 97% +21  1 - 0 +26 +26 A+ A+ C +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 356 Western Illinois W 77 - 58 99% +10  2 - 0 +2 +7 A+ F A- -3 C- B A+
 Fri, Nov 14 81 Xavier W 81 - 62 87% +10  3 - 0 +23 +10 A+ D- D +13 A+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 18 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 99 - 70 98% +19  4 - 0 +21 +27 A+ A+ B -5 D- F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 357 Chicago St. W 93 - 54 99% +18  5 - 0 +22 +26 B A+ A+ +2 B+ B C+
 Tue, Nov 25 62 Mississippi W 74 - 69 77% +2  6 - 0 +14 +12 D+ A+ A+ +2 B F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 79 Grand Canyon W 59 - 46 80% +6  7 - 0 +20 +2 C+ B D- +20 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 11 @Michigan St. L 52 - 71 27% -12  7 - 1 0 - 1 +4 +4 B+ C C- -4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 100 Maryland W 83 - 64 90% +15  8 - 1 1 - 1 +21 +11 A+ C+ A +10 A+ C- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 8 @Iowa St. L 62 - 66 25% +1  8 - 2 +19 +10 A+ B+ F +9 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 260 Western Michigan W 91 - 51 98% +30  9 - 2 +32 +21 A+ C- A+ +15 A+ C- B
 Sat, Dec 20 319 Bucknell W 94 - 39 98% +23  10 - 2 +45 +25 A+ A+ A- +24 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 309 Umass Lowell W 90 - 62 99% +19  11 - 2 +17 +18 A+ D+ A- +1 D- A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 36 UCLA W 74 - 61 72% +10  12 - 2 2 - 1 +23 +15 A+ F D- +10 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 71 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 70% -6  12 - 3 2 - 2 +8 +2 C+ C F +6 C A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 9 Illinois L 69 - 75 46% -10  12 - 4 2 - 3 +11 +7 B+ C- C+ +4 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 5 @Purdue L 72 - 79 23% +1  12 - 5 2 - 4 +17 +15 A+ A+ F +1 C- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 37 @Indiana W 74 - 57 50% +9  13 - 5 3 - 4 +33 +24 A+ D+ A+ +13 A- A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 115 Rutgers W 68 - 62 93% +1  14 - 5 4 - 4 +6 +1 C+ F C- +5 D A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 48 USC W 76 - 67 79%
 Sun, Feb 1 68 @Oregon W 72 - 67 69%
 Wed, Feb 4 47 @Washington W 72 - 69 60%
 Sun, Feb 8 60 Northwestern W 75 - 65 84%
 Wed, Feb 11 100 @Maryland W 74 - 66 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 5 Purdue L 69 - 71 44%
 Tue, Feb 17 14 Nebraska W 70 - 69 55%
 Sun, Feb 22 35 @Wisconsin L 74 - 75 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 30 Ohio St. W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 116 @Penn St. W 77 - 67 83%
 Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 71 - 77 31%
 Sun, Mar 8 14 @Nebraska L 67 - 72 34%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 9 +16 +8 A+ B- B- +8 B- A- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.1 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.8 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 7.7 7.7 1.3 0.0 18.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.4 8.9 2.1 0.1 19.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.5 9.0 2.9 0.2 18.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.8 6.7 2.9 0.3 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.1 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.2 9.2 15.9 21.2 20.6 15.3 8.4 2.8 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 28.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.8% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 3.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.4% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.6 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 15.3% 99.9% 4.8% 95.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.8 5.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 20.6% 99.7% 2.7% 97.0% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 6.4 6.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.7%
11-9 21.2% 98.2% 1.7% 96.4% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 6.5 5.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.4 98.2%
10-10 15.9% 94.0% 1.2% 92.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.2 4.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 1.0 93.9%
9-11 9.2% 79.0% 0.8% 78.3% 9.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.9 0.0 1.9 78.9%
8-12 4.2% 47.0% 0.5% 46.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.0 2.2 46.7%
7-13 1.5% 17.5% 0.3% 17.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.2 17.2%
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.8% 2.9% 89.9% 6.9 7.2 92.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 3.7 25.9 40.7 22.2 7.4