Minnesota
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.9 71
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 88
Pace 59.9 361
Improvement +3.4 52

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #80 B- C C+ B B-
Defense B- #66 B- A- B- B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 174 66% 36 +3.2 82
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 299 35% 279 -2.7 307
Three Pointers 47% 66 34% 169 +3.0 82
1st FG Attempt 1.09 80 +3.5 80
Second Chance 30.8% 171 1.04 150 0.32 149
Turnovers 16.2% 134
Freethrows 0.36 29 69% 283 0.25 78
Total Offense +4.0 80

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 56% 123 +4.0 54
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 49 36% 125 -1.5 297
Three Pointers 41% 163 32% 101 +0.8 150
1st FG Attempt 0.95 68 +3.3 67
Second Chance 27.8% 75 0.82 7 0.23 19
Turnovers 18.4% 94
Freethrows 0.26 50 71% 98 0.18 44
Total Defense +3.9 66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 81 -1.0 35
Shot Type Accuracy +2.7 91 -2.3 91
Possession Length 17.9 247 19.0 353
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 152 0.09 8
Improvement +3.4 #39 +0.0 #188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 1% 0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.2
.500 or above 8% 21% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 1%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 10
Quad 23 - 66 - 16
Quad 31 - 26 - 18
Quad 48 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 60 99% +25  99% 1 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 B+ C- F B +6 B+ A D+
 Sat, Nov 8 351 Alcorn St. W 95 - 50 98% +30  98% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A +11 D- A+ C+ A+ +18 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 48 @Missouri L 60 - 83 27% -3  46% 2 - 1 D -9 D+ -2 C C- C F+ -9 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 244 Green Bay W 72 - 65 OT 92% +1  56% 3 - 1 C -1 F -12 D F B A +12 A- A- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 353 Chicago St. W 66 - 54 98% +6  91% 4 - 1 D+ -5 F -10 F F B- B+ +7 B- C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 22 107 San Francisco L 65 - 77 64% -6  0% 4 - 2 D+ -8 C- -2 A C- F D -7 D C B-
 Thu, Nov 27 74 Stanford L 68 - 72 51% -1  33% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 A A D C+ +1 A+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 28 44 Santa Clara L 75 - 86 34% -18  0% 4 - 4 C +1 B+ +8 C- A+ A D -7 F B C-
 Wed, Dec 3 29 Indiana W 73 - 64 36% +1  49% 5 - 4 1 - 0 A +21 B +6 B+ A+ F A+ +15 A+ A D-
 Wed, Dec 10 9 @Purdue L 57 - 85 8% -15  0% 5 - 5 1 - 1 C- -4 D -5 D- D- A C -1 C D C+
 Sun, Dec 14 309 Texas Southern W 89 - 53 96% +20  94% 6 - 5 A+ +24 B+ +9 A+ D- C A+ +16 A A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 192 Campbell W 78 - 50 88% +18  97% 7 - 5 A+ +23 A- +10 A- A+ C- A+ +17 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 60 - 43 97% +7  78% 8 - 5 C+ +3 F -13 F B- F A+ +19 A A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 64 @Northwestern W 84 - 78 37% -2  20% 9 - 5 2 - 1 A- +17 A+ +18 A+ B+ C+ C -1 D+ A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 25 Iowa W 70 - 67 31% +6  91% 10 - 5 3 - 1 A- +16 C +1 B F A+ A+ +15 A+ A+ A
 Fri, Jan 9 47 USC L 69 - 70 OT 49% -3  23% 10 - 6 3 - 2 B- +7 B- +4 B- B- B- B- +4 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 33 Wisconsin L 75 - 78 37% +1  67% 10 - 7 3 - 3 B +8 A- +10 A F+ A+ C -1 C- A D+
 Sat, Jan 17 6 @Illinois L 67 - 77 7% -2  28% 10 - 8 3 - 4 A- +14 B+ +9 B A+ B- B- +4 B+ B+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 39 @Ohio St. L 74 - 82 OT 20% -2  17% 10 - 9 3 - 5 B +9 B- +4 C+ D+ A B +5 B+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 15 Nebraska L 57 - 76 24% -4  27% 10 - 10 3 - 6 C- -4 D -5 B+ F C C+ +0 C A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 33 @Wisconsin L 63 - 67 19% +8  85% 10 - 11 3 - 7 B+ +13 C +0 A D- D+ A +13 C A+ A+
 Sun, Feb 1 109 @Penn St. L 75 - 77 54% -6  2% 10 - 12 3 - 8 B- +5 B+ +8 B- A+ C D+ -4 B F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 10 Michigan St. W 76 - 73 20% +8  97% 11 - 12 4 - 8 A +20 A+ +19 A+ C- A+ C+ +1 B+ C D-
 Sun, Feb 8 104 Maryland L 62 - 67 73% +1  55% 11 - 13 4 - 9 C- -4 B- +4 B+ C+ C+ D- -9 D- B- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 46 @Washington L 66 - 72 28%
 Tue, Feb 17 80 @Oregon L 67 - 69 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 122 Rutgers W 72 - 64 78%
 Tue, Feb 24 1 @Michigan L 62 - 83 2%
 Sat, Feb 28 34 UCLA L 66 - 69 37%
 Wed, Mar 4 29 @Indiana L 66 - 76 18%
 Sat, Mar 7 64 Northwestern W 70 - 68 60%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8 B- +4 B- C C+ B- +4 B- A- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ D+ C B- 39% 15% 47% B- B- C C C C+ B+ D+ B B- C+ C+ B- B- 33% 26% 41% B+ B- B- A A- B- B B- B
1.14 66% 35% 34% +3 +1 1.09 31% 1.0 .32 16% .36 69% .25 1.03 56% 36% 32% -2 -1 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 18% .26 71% .26
Nov
3		 Gardner-Webb C- A+ F C B+ 52% 13% 35% B+ B+ C+ D- C- F A+ D- A+ B C+ A+ D+ B 37% 29% 33% A B+ C- A+ A D+ F A+ F
1.21 84% 17% 35% +12 +2 1.29 38% 0.9 .34 19% .52 67% .34 0.83 53% 7% 35% -11 -1 0.78 25% 0.5 .11 19% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Alcorn St. A C- D- F F 63% 6% 31% A D- A+ B- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ D A+ 35% 48% 17% A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ B+ D A C-
1.36 60% 33% 27% -2 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55 0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17
Nov
12		 Missouri D+ C A+ F C+ 33% 27% 40% C C A F C- C B F D F+ F D F F 28% 26% 46% A+ F A+ F B- D- C- D+ D+
0.97 53% 67% 22% -1 -1 0.98 39% 0.6 .22 18% .33 53% .18 1.34 85% 42% 48% +18 -1 1.35 13% 3.0 .39 15% .38 70% .27
Nov
15		 Green Bay F A- F+ F D 35% 21% 44% C D D+ F F B A+ F A A C A+ A A 41% 16% 43% C- A- B+ A A- B+ F+ A+ C
1.01 71% 30% 29% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.7 .20 11% .61 51% .32 0.91 57% 25% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.9 .16 20% .42 63% .26
Nov
18		 Chicago St. F B- B- F F 29% 17% 54% D- F B- F F B- A+ C+ A+ B+ C C- A+ C+ 31% 47% 22% A B- B+ D C+ B+ A- A+ A
1.05 67% 43% 27% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.5 .20 18% .52 78% .41 0.86 53% 39% 18% -6 -4 0.82 23% 1.0 .23 19% .20 60% .12
Nov
22		 San Francisco C- C+ F A+ A- 62% 10% 28% A+ A C+ D- C- F A+ F A+ D B+ C F D- 38% 17% 45% C D D+ B C B- D+ D+ D
1.03 58% 25% 45% +4 +3 1.15 28% 0.9 .25 19% .59 50% .29 1.22 50% 38% 48% +6 0 1.15 36% 1.0 .36 17% .36 74% .27
Nov
27		 Stanford C+ C- D+ A+ A 33% 15% 51% B A C- A+ A D B- D+ C+ C+ A F A+ A+ 47% 10% 43% C- A+ F D+ F D- C+ D C
1.06 54% 33% 45% +6 0 1.15 24% 1.8 .44 22% .36 72% .26 1.12 46% 60% 23% -11 +2 0.84 47% 1.1 .50 12% .32 78% .25
Nov
28		 Santa Clara B+ C+ F D- C- 43% 11% 46% B C- A- A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ D C- A F F 26% 17% 57% B F A+ F B C- B C B
1.13 60% 20% 29% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.3 .50 17% .49 74% .36 1.29 64% 33% 53% +17 0 1.36 19% 1.8 .35 15% .19 73% .14
Dec
3		 Indiana B B+ F+ C B 38% 18% 45% B+ B+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ D A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 39% 12% 49% B- A+ A+ F A D- C A+ A-
1.10 60% 29% 33% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.4 .47 24% .54 70% .38 0.97 53% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 11% .34 60% .20
Dec
10		 Purdue D C C- F F+ 27% 27% 45% C D- F B+ D- A A- A- A- C D- F+ D+ C- 32% 34% 34% A C F+ C+ D C+ F B+ F+
0.87 57% 36% 22% -9 -2 0.80 14% 1.2 .16 14% .27 73% .20 1.30 73% 50% 38% +11 -2 1.19 44% 1.1 .50 14% .39 68% .27
Dec
14		 Texas Southern B+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 8% 63% C A+ D+ D- D- C B C B A+ C C- A+ A 33% 31% 37% B A A- A+ A+ A+ B+ F C-
1.28 79% 25% 43% +14 +1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 16% .43 72% .31 0.76 56% 40% 17% -9 -2 0.80 20% 0.6 .11 24% .25 92% .23
Dec
21		 Campbell A- A+ F A- A- 44% 22% 33% C A- C A+ A+ C- F A+ F A+ D+ C- A+ A- 38% 21% 41% A- A- C- A+ A+ A+ D F F
1.29 85% 20% 40% +11 0 1.24 30% 2.0 .61 18% .18 89% .16 0.82 60% 38% 19% -9 0 0.85 34% 0.4 .13 28% .44 79% .34
Dec
29		 Fairleigh Dickinson F C- F D F 26% 15% 60% C- F B C- B- F F F F A+ F+ A+ A A 21% 21% 57% A- A C- A+ A+ A D+ A+ C+
0.99 58% 14% 32% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 20% .25 50% .12 0.71 67% 11% 25% -12 -1 0.76 33% 0.3 .10 23% .30 57% .17
Jan
3		 Northwestern A+ A A+ D A+ 50% 13% 37% A A+ B- A- B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C F C- A- D+ 37% 23% 40% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ D- C
1.27 70% 67% 29% +7 +2 1.20 35% 1.1 .39 17% .47 85% .40 1.18 79% 42% 29% +5 0 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 6% .32 80% .26
Jan
6		 Iowa C B+ A+ F B 40% 18% 42% B- B F F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ 31% 29% 40% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A A C- A
1.03 67% 63% 26% +3 0 1.09 11% 0.7 .07 15% .48 75% .36 0.98 44% 53% 33% 0 -2 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 21% .24 77% .18
Jan
9		 USC B- B F B+ B 20% 22% 59% D B- A- D+ B- B- C F D- B- D D- C- D+ 38% 27% 35% B- C- F A+ A+ A+ A F B-
1.05 60% 27% 37% +1 -1 1.00 36% 0.8 .29 17% .27 60% .16 1.07 67% 46% 35% +6 -1 1.13 45% 0.3 .12 24% .34 82% .28
Jan
13		 Wisconsin A- A A+ D A+ 38% 27% 35% C A F C F+ A+ A+ D- A C F+ A- F D- 20% 18% 62% A+ C- A+ C- A D+ C+ C C+
1.16 67% 62% 29% +7 -1 1.15 13% 1.0 .13 8% .40 67% .27 1.21 70% 33% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.2 .24 11% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Illinois B+ A+ F C- B 19% 30% 52% C- B B+ A+ A+ B- F A+ F+ B- C+ F+ C B- 22% 22% 57% A+ B+ D- A+ B+ B+ D D- F+
1.09 80% 25% 32% -1 -3 0.94 31% 1.4 .42 11% .05 100% .05 1.25 60% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 16% .37 84% .31
Jan
20		 Ohio St. B- A+ F C- C+ 29% 27% 45% C C+ D C D+ A A+ A- A+ B D- C- A- B+ 33% 28% 39% B- B+ C- C C- C- B+ A- A
1.05 71% 23% 32% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .41 80% .33 1.17 72% 47% 29% +4 -1 1.07 37% 1.1 .40 14% .30 72% .22
Jan
24		 Nebraska D A+ D+ D- B- 27% 13% 60% A B+ D- F F C C+ F D C+ C+ F C C+ 42% 9% 49% D+ C B- A+ A+ C- A+ F B+
0.88 77% 33% 28% -1 0 1.00 18% 0.4 .08 20% .23 50% .12 1.17 64% 80% 35% +7 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 12% .16 100% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Wisconsin C F+ A+ A+ A 35% 9% 57% A A D- F D- D+ D- F F A A+ A- F C 26% 7% 67% C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F+
0.99 44% 75% 42% +5 +1 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 17% .21 55% .11 1.05 45% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.6 .10 20% .43 73% .31
Feb
1		 Penn St. B+ A+ A+ F C+ 36% 5% 59% A- B- B- A+ A+ C A+ A A+ D+ B- B C- B 45% 22% 33% C+ B F F F C+ A+ F A+
1.18 81% 50% 27% +3 +2 1.11 32% 1.8 .56 19% .33 82% .27 1.21 57% 36% 35% 0 0 1.02 38% 1.7 .63 16% .17 89% .15
Feb
4		 Michigan St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B- A+ F+ A+ C- A+ A+ C- A+ C+ B- A- C A- 34% 26% 40% B- B+ C+ D+ C D- B B B+
1.21 73% 0% 48% +7 0 1.16 10% 1.0 .10 10% .54 71% .39 1.16 59% 31% 35% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.2 .45 14% .32 71% .22
Feb
8		 Maryland B- F A+ A- B 24% 2% 73% B B+ C+ C C+ C+ B- F D+ D- F F A+ F 22% 27% 51% A+ D- C+ B B- C+ C- C+ C
1.13 40% 100% 40% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.0 .30 16% .31 57% .17 1.22 78% 73% 24% +6 -2 1.10 34% 1.0 .34 18% .38 71% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 0.3 1.6 10th
11th 0.3 2.7 2.8 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 2.8 12.3 12.1 1.6 28.7 12th
13th 4.1 22.3 16.7 2.6 0.0 45.8 13th
14th 0.2 7.2 4.3 0.3 12.0 14th
15th 1.0 2.5 0.2 3.7 15th
16th 1.1 0.3 1.4 16th
17th 0.4 0.4 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.6 14.2 29.6 29.6 17.6 5.7 0.7 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.7% 31.5% 31.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 31.5%
9-11 5.7% 3.4% 3.4% 11.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 3.4%
8-12 17.6% 0.2% 0.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 17.6 0.2%
7-13 29.6% 29.6
6-14 29.6% 29.6
5-15 14.2% 14.2
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 10.9 99.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%