Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +19.8 10
Expected Predictive Rating +20.6 11
Pace 66.0 250
Improvement -1.1 235

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ #41 B A C- B+ D+
Defense A #5 A A+ C+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 187 66% 37 +2.9 85
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 86 39% 130 +2.0 77
Three Pointers 37% 272 36% 82 -1.0 218
1st FG Attempt 1.10 69 +3.9 69
Second Chance 41.2% 4 1.10 81 0.45 11
Turnovers 17.3% 206
Freethrows 0.36 27 75% 100 0.27 22
Total Offense +8.1 41

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 352 48% 12 +8.0 7
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 91 32% 15 +0.4 158
Three Pointers 47% 30 30% 40 -0.5 204
1st FG Attempt 0.86 9 +7.9 9
Second Chance 18.8% 1 0.70 2 0.13 1
Turnovers 17.4% 151
Freethrows 0.25 35 72% 166 0.18 39
Total Defense +11.7 5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.6 266 -1.0 41
Shot Type Accuracy +4.5 54 -6.9 7
Possession Length 16.3 76 19.0 355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 3 0.14 80
Improvement +1.6 #100 -2.7 #312

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 4% 6% 2%
Top 2 Seed 22% 29% 12%
Top 4 Seed 77% 86% 64%
Top 6 Seed 98% 100% 95%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 3.6 3.2 4.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 3% 5% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round94% 96% 91%
Sweet Sixteen60% 63% 56%
Elite Eight29% 32% 25%
Final Four13% 14% 11%
Championship Game6% 6% 5%
National Champion2% 3% 2%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 35 - 020 - 8
Quad 46 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 209 Colgate W 80 - 69 98% +6  96% 1 - 0 B- +5 C+ +2 F A+ C+ B- +3 D- A+ B
 Sat, Nov 8 19 Arkansas W 69 - 66 68% +2  67% 2 - 0 A +18 C +0 D A- D A+ +18 A+ A A+
 Thu, Nov 13 236 San Jose St. W 79 - 60 99% +14  99% 3 - 0 B+ +12 C+ +3 C- C A A- +10 A A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 24 Kentucky W 83 - 66 64% +11  86% 4 - 0 A+ +33 A +14 A+ B- C- A+ +19 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 271 Detroit Mercy W 84 - 56 99% +16  98% 5 - 0 A +19 B- +5 D+ A+ F+ A+ +15 B- A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 252 East Carolina W 89 - 56 98% +22  96% 6 - 0 A+ +28 A- +10 A- A- B A+ +17 C A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 26 North Carolina W 74 - 58 67% +4  79% 7 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +16 A+ A+ D+ A+ +18 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 2 25 Iowa W 71 - 52 74% +12  79% 8 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +32 A+ +14 D A+ D+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke L 60 - 66 47% -0  42% 8 - 1 A- +15 C +1 F+ B- A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 109 @Penn St. W 76 - 72 88% +1  57% 9 - 1 2 - 0 B +11 C+ +3 C B F A- +8 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 16 165 Toledo W 92 - 69 97% +20  99% 10 - 1 A +20 A- +10 B+ A D A- +9 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 143 Oakland W 79 - 70 95% +4  66% 11 - 1 B +10 C+ +3 D A- C- B+ +7 C- A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 159 Cornell W 114 - 97 97% +6  54% 12 - 1 B+ +14 A +12 A- C+ C C -1 C A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 15 @Nebraska L 56 - 58 43% -1  25% 12 - 2 2 - 1 A +19 D+ -3 C B F A+ +22 A+ A C-
 Mon, Jan 5 47 USC W 80 - 51 86% +14  86% 13 - 2 3 - 1 A+ +37 B+ +9 A+ D C+ A+ +28 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 64 Northwestern W 76 - 66 90% +0  45% 14 - 2 4 - 1 A- +15 B +6 C+ A+ F A +10 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 29 Indiana W 81 - 60 78% +5  67% 15 - 2 5 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +16 A+ A- F A+ +18 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 46 @Washington W 80 - 63 70% +8  88% 16 - 2 6 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +15 B+ A A+ A+ +17 B A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 80 @Oregon W 68 - 52 82% +4  79% 17 - 2 7 - 1 A+ +26 A- +10 A+ B+ F+ A+ +19 A- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 104 Maryland W 91 - 48 95% +24  99% 18 - 2 8 - 1 A+ +44 A+ +26 A+ A+ A A+ +23 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 122 @Rutgers W 88 - 79 OT 90% -5  16% 19 - 2 9 - 1 A- +15 A +13 C+ A+ F+ C+ +2 C A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 71 - 83 38% -7  1% 19 - 3 9 - 2 B +11 B- +5 B+ D- C- B+ +6 A+ A- B
 Wed, Feb 4 71 @Minnesota L 73 - 76 80% -8  0% 19 - 4 9 - 3 B- +8 A +11 C+ A+ A D+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 6 Illinois W 85 - 82 OT 55% -2  20% 20 - 4 10 - 3 A +21 A +14 A A- B- B+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Feb 13 33 @Wisconsin W 75 - 73 59%
 Tue, Feb 17 34 UCLA W 73 - 65 79%
 Sun, Feb 22 39 Ohio St. W 78 - 69 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 9 @Purdue L 69 - 73 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 29 @Indiana W 73 - 71 58%
 Thu, Mar 5 122 Rutgers W 80 - 60 97%
 Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 70 - 79 20%
Totals 24 - 7 14 - 6 +20 B+ +8 B A C- A +12 A A+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ C+ B- B 38% 25% 37% D+ B A B- A C- B+ B- B+ A A- A- B+ A 30% 23% 47% B+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ B+ C B
1.20 66% 39% 36% +4 -1 1.10 41% 1.1 .45 17% .36 75% .27 0.92 48% 32% 30% -7 -1 0.86 19% 0.7 .13 17% .25 72% .26
Nov
3		 Colgate C+ A- F F F+ 34% 32% 34% F+ F A+ B- A+ C+ A+ F A+ B- F D F+ F+ 24% 24% 52% B- D- A+ C- A+ B A+ B+ A+
1.16 69% 20% 25% -7 -2 0.85 46% 1.1 .49 14% .62 65% .41 1.00 69% 46% 39% +9 -1 1.17 10% 1.0 .10 19% .11 67% .07
Nov
8		 Arkansas C B+ D F D- 48% 28% 24% C D A+ F A- D A+ C+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 30% 17% 52% B- A+ C+ A+ A A+ F A+ D
1.01 64% 31% 0% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.9 .46 21% .48 69% .33 0.97 64% 25% 25% -7 0 0.87 33% 0.9 .31 21% .42 65% .28
Nov
13		 San Jose St. C+ A+ B+ F C- 38% 18% 44% C- C- B+ F+ C A A+ F+ A+ A- B C+ A A 19% 32% 49% A- A A+ C+ A+ D D+ A C
1.19 79% 44% 23% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.0 .41 14% .44 68% .30 0.91 50% 35% 27% -7 -3 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 14% .31 67% .21
Nov
18		 Kentucky A F+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 25% 37% B- A+ B C B- C- F A F A+ B A+ A+ A+ 30% 15% 55% C+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ C- F F+
1.17 45% 50% 52% +8 0 1.18 31% 0.8 .25 18% .17 80% .14 0.93 56% 25% 24% -10 0 0.81 16% 1.0 .16 13% .35 86% .31
Nov
21		 Detroit Mercy B- B- A F C- 31% 25% 43% F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ A+ A- F A C+ 26% 38% 36% B- B- B- A+ A+ A A+ F A
1.22 63% 46% 27% -1 -1 0.98 44% 1.4 .61 17% .46 77% .35 0.82 46% 47% 28% -3 -3 0.90 30% 0.5 .14 22% .15 88% .13
Nov
25		 East Carolina A- A- C- A+ A 32% 29% 39% D A- B B+ A- B F+ F+ F A+ A+ D+ F C 48% 25% 28% D+ C B- A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
1.24 67% 38% 45% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.3 .47 15% .20 67% .13 0.78 26% 40% 55% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.5 .14 33% .54 69% .37
Nov
27		 North Carolina A+ D A+ A+ A+ 45% 37% 18% C A+ A+ B A+ D+ D+ A C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 11% 46% D- A+ B- A+ A+ C+ B- C- C+
1.22 48% 53% 56% +7 -2 1.12 40% 1.0 .40 16% .18 78% .14 0.96 65% 20% 19% -9 +2 0.87 32% 0.5 .16 13% .32 71% .23
Dec
2		 Iowa A+ C C+ F D- 47% 22% 31% B- D A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C A+ 36% 13% 51% C A+ A+ A+ A+ A- D+ A+ B-
1.21 59% 38% 18% -7 0 0.89 52% 1.6 .84 24% .56 88% .49 0.89 50% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.95 20% 0.7 .13 19% .36 65% .23
Dec
6		 Duke C D+ F C- F+ 36% 29% 35% C F+ B C+ B- A+ B- C+ B- A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ 23% 19% 57% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- D- A C-
0.93 50% 6% 32% -13 -1 0.73 28% 0.8 .21 8% .24 71% .17 1.03 73% 22% 30% -3 -1 0.94 25% 0.8 .20 12% .41 65% .27
Dec
13		 Penn St. C+ F F A+ C 41% 20% 39% C C A- D B F A+ A+ A+ A- C+ A- B A- 33% 21% 46% B+ A- A- B+ A- D+ A+ F A+
1.10 44% 22% 53% +2 0 1.07 38% 1.2 .45 25% .40 86% .35 1.04 58% 33% 31% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 13% .15 89% .13
Dec
16		 Toledo A- C+ F A+ B+ 48% 15% 37% B- B+ A+ C A D A B- A A- A+ C- C- A+ 27% 31% 42% A- A+ A+ A- A+ F B C B-
1.29 62% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 50% 0.9 .47 21% .34 74% .25 0.96 25% 44% 36% -6 -2 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 6% .25 76% .19
Dec
20		 Oakland C+ A+ F D D+ 31% 29% 41% D- D A- B- A- C- A+ B- A+ B+ A+ C+ F D+ 41% 22% 37% B- C- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F B+
1.16 80% 21% 30% 0 -2 0.98 43% 1.0 .43 16% .40 74% .30 1.03 43% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 18% 0.8 .15 18% .23 92% .21
Dec
29		 Cornell A A+ B+ A+ A 36% 20% 45% D+ A- A- F C+ C A+ D A+ C D+ F D+ C 31% 8% 62% C+ C A A+ A+ D- D+ D D
1.37 75% 45% 44% +14 0 1.30 38% 1.0 .38 14% .60 67% .41 1.17 65% 60% 38% +7 +1 1.18 23% 0.7 .15 14% .32 78% .25
Jan
2		 Nebraska D+ F+ F B+ C+ 5% 36% 60% F C A- C B F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 18% 18% 65% A+ A+ A A A C- B- A- B
0.87 50% 27% 36% -3 -4 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 30% .35 75% .26 0.90 33% 11% 36% -7 -1 0.86 19% 0.9 .17 12% .23 69% .16
Jan
5		 USC B+ A- A+ A A+ 33% 33% 35% F+ A+ B- F D C+ B- D+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+
1.13 65% 59% 39% +12 -2 1.21 31% 0.6 .19 17% .30 72% .22 0.72 58% 23% 13% -15 -1 0.71 22% 0.8 .16 24% .30 75% .22
Jan
8		 Northwestern B A+ D+ F C+ 40% 23% 38% C+ C+ A- A+ A+ F A+ C- A+ A A- C- A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ D- C-
1.13 75% 33% 20% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.5 .57 22% .63 70% .44 0.98 50% 42% 23% -9 -1 0.81 21% 1.0 .21 9% .33 80% .26
Jan
13		 Indiana A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 38% 16% 47% A- A+ A+ F A- F A+ B A+ A+ F A+ B- B 24% 13% 62% A B+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A- A+
1.25 76% 57% 38% +13 +1 1.29 48% 0.8 .41 23% .48 79% .38 0.93 82% 33% 32% +4 0 1.09 17% 1.0 .17 22% .22 73% .16
Jan
17		 Washington A+ B A- C- A- 30% 41% 30% F+ B+ A- A- A A+ B- D+ C+ A+ F F A+ B+ 37% 27% 37% C- B A+ F A+ B B+ C B+
1.20 63% 45% 31% +3 -3 1.02 34% 1.2 .39 7% .29 67% .19 0.94 72% 54% 17% 0 -1 1.00 10% 2.0 .21 18% .24 77% .18
Jan
20		 Oregon A- A+ A+ B A+ 25% 32% 43% D- A+ D+ A+ B+ F+ F+ F F A+ A+ D F+ A 41% 20% 39% C+ A- A+ B+ A+ C A+ A+ A+
1.15 73% 64% 37% +14 -2 1.25 26% 1.3 .35 20% .19 56% .11 0.88 32% 44% 39% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.0 .22 17% .22 45% .10
Jan
24		 Maryland A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 39% 37% F A+ A A+ A+ A A- B A- A+ C C A+ A 14% 37% 49% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+
1.45 82% 50% 47% +18 -3 1.30 38% 1.9 .71 13% .35 74% .26 0.77 57% 39% 21% -9 -4 0.76 26% 0.7 .17 18% .21 55% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Rutgers A A+ F C- C+ 40% 23% 38% C C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ C- C- 24% 29% 47% B- C A+ C- A+ F C F D
1.23 79% 9% 33% +1 0 1.04 45% 1.4 .62 21% .46 92% .42 1.10 54% 38% 35% -1 -2 0.96 16% 1.2 .18 7% .35 83% .29
Jan
30		 Michigan B- A+ B F B+ 35% 31% 35% B- B+ A+ F D- C- A+ A+ A+ B+ C A- C+ A 32% 32% 36% A+ A+ B+ B A- B F+ F F
0.98 65% 40% 18% -6 -2 0.88 38% 0.4 .15 19% .46 85% .39 1.14 63% 31% 33% -1 -2 0.96 34% 1.3 .44 18% .44 88% .39
Feb
4		 Minnesota A C+ D- B- C+ 34% 26% 40% C C+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ C B D+ F A+ F D- 33% 20% 47% B+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F F C- F
1.16 59% 31% 35% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.2 .45 14% .32 71% .22 1.21 73% 0% 48% +7 0 1.16 10% 1.0 .10 10% .54 71% .39
Feb
7		 Illinois A B+ A- B- A 29% 41% 30% D A A+ D+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ B+ B+ A+ B+ A+ 30% 16% 54% B A+ A+ A+ A+ F D D D-
1.19 63% 43% 35% +4 -3 1.04 39% 0.8 .32 11% .36 87% .32 1.15 56% 20% 30% -7 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .25 6% .36 83% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 1.8 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 5.8 8.9 0.5 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.5 13.3 2.5 20.3 3rd
4th 1.6 13.0 8.6 0.2 23.4 4th
5th 0.3 9.4 11.9 1.7 23.4 5th
6th 2.0 6.3 0.9 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 0.8 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.7 5.4 18.2 30.8 29.5 13.1 2.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 78.4% 1.8    0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 12.0% 1.6    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 1.8 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.1% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.4 1.8 6.0 4.3 1.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 29.5% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 3.0 1.4 7.2 11.9 7.3 1.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 30.8% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 3.8 0.3 2.9 9.2 11.5 5.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 18.2% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 4.6 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.8 6.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-8 5.4% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.7% 100.0% 1.4% 98.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 3.6 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 68.0 30.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.7 32.7 61.2 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.8 28.4 66.2 4.1 1.4