Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.5#12
Expected Predictive Rating+22.4#8
Pace65.7#282
Improvement+2.8#32

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#42
First Shot+3.3#88
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#15
Layup/Dunks+2.6#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#306
Freethrows+1.9#77
Improvement+1.3#77

Defense
Total Defense+11.1#4
First Shot+6.9#21
After Offensive Rebounds+4.2#7
Layups/Dunks+10.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#298
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#293
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement+1.5#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.6%
#1 Seed 11.4% 12.7% 4.7%
Top 2 Seed 30.5% 33.4% 15.9%
Top 4 Seed 71.6% 75.0% 55.1%
Top 6 Seed 91.5% 93.4% 82.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.5% 97.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.5% 97.6%
Average Seed 3.6 3.5 4.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 97.7% 89.6%
Conference Champion 11.3% 12.9% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 1.5%
First Round99.0% 99.4% 97.3%
Second Round88.2% 89.6% 81.3%
Sweet Sixteen56.1% 58.0% 46.7%
Elite Eight28.0% 29.5% 20.6%
Final Four13.2% 14.1% 9.1%
Championship Game5.9% 6.3% 3.6%
National Champion2.4% 2.6% 1.4%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 7
Quad 26 - 116 - 8
Quad 35 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 179 Colgate W 80-69 97%     1 - 0 +6.6 +5.6 +1.1
  Sat, Nov 8 20 Arkansas W 69-66 73%     2 - 0 +15.2 +4.1 +11.2
  Thu, Nov 13 182 San Jose St. W 79-60 97%     3 - 0 +14.4 +8.4 +7.0
  Tue, Nov 18 21 Kentucky W 83-66 63%     4 - 0 +32.1 +16.3 +15.6
  Fri, Nov 21 293 Detroit Mercy W 84-56 99%     5 - 0 +17.6 +7.7 +10.5
  Tue, Nov 25 266 East Carolina W 89-56 98%     6 - 0 +27.4 +12.0 +14.5
  Thu, Nov 27 22 North Carolina W 74-58 63%     7 - 0 +31.0 +19.8 +13.6
  Tue, Dec 2 25 Iowa W 71-52 75%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +30.6 +17.2 +17.2
  Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke L 60-66 46%     8 - 1 +13.5 +2.5 +10.5
  Sat, Dec 13 96 @Penn St. W 77-67 83%    
  Tue, Dec 16 163 Toledo W 85-63 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 146 Oakland W 87-69 95%    
  Mon, Dec 29 150 Cornell W 89-68 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 48 @Nebraska W 74-69 67%    
  Mon, Jan 5 35 USC W 78-69 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 61 Northwestern W 76-64 87%    
  Tue, Jan 13 28 Indiana W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 49 @Washington W 73-68 67%    
  Tue, Jan 20 81 @Oregon W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 93 Maryland W 78-62 93%    
  Tue, Jan 27 123 @Rutgers W 74-61 88%    
  Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 70-75 33%    
  Wed, Feb 4 102 @Minnesota W 70-59 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 15 Illinois W 74-71 63%    
  Fri, Feb 13 30 @Wisconsin W 74-72 57%    
  Tue, Feb 17 27 UCLA W 71-63 75%    
  Sun, Feb 22 24 Ohio St. W 76-69 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 7 @Purdue L 67-72 34%    
  Sun, Mar 1 28 @Indiana W 71-69 56%    
  Thu, Mar 5 123 Rutgers W 77-58 95%    
  Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 67-78 17%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 3.6 1.4 0.2 11.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.0 7.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 6.0 7.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.9 6.4 2.8 0.3 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.2 2.1 0.2 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 7.0 10.3 14.0 16.2 16.2 13.3 9.1 4.5 1.4 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.5% 1.4    1.2 0.1
18-2 80.1% 3.6    2.3 1.2 0.1
17-3 43.4% 3.9    1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0
16-4 13.9% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 5.8 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.5% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.5 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.1% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 1.8 3.3 4.1 1.5 0.1 100.0%
16-4 13.3% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 2.3 2.6 5.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 100.0%
15-5 16.2% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 2.8 1.4 4.3 6.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 16.2% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 3.5 0.4 2.2 6.0 5.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.0% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 4.1 0.1 0.6 3.3 5.1 3.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 10.3% 99.9% 3.0% 96.9% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 7.0% 99.7% 1.9% 97.7% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-10 4.1% 98.9% 1.6% 97.3% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
9-11 2.2% 95.1% 1.2% 93.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 95.1%
8-12 1.0% 77.1% 1.0% 76.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 76.8%
7-13 0.4% 47.3% 47.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 47.3%
6-14 0.1% 5.7% 5.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.2% 9.3% 89.9% 3.6 11.4 19.1 22.9 18.3 12.4 7.5 3.7 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.8 99.2%