Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#15
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#22
Pace72.7#106
Improvement-0.8#240

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#12
First Shot+7.4#23
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#37
Layup/Dunks+1.9#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#47
Freethrows+0.7#142
Improvement-1.3#284

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#15
First Shot+6.1#27
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#81
Layups/Dunks+8.4#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#362
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#196
Freethrows+4.5#6
Improvement+0.4#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
#1 Seed 6.4% 9.1% 3.4%
Top 2 Seed 18.4% 25.2% 11.3%
Top 4 Seed 54.1% 65.3% 42.4%
Top 6 Seed 79.0% 87.6% 70.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.9% 98.9% 94.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.6% 98.8% 94.4%
Average Seed 4.5 4.0 5.1
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 98.3% 92.5%
Conference Champion 9.7% 14.4% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 0.7% 2.4%
First Round96.3% 98.7% 93.8%
Second Round81.2% 86.2% 76.0%
Sweet Sixteen48.0% 53.9% 41.8%
Elite Eight22.7% 26.4% 18.8%
Final Four10.2% 12.2% 8.1%
Championship Game4.6% 5.6% 3.5%
National Champion1.9% 2.3% 1.4%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 8
Quad 26 - 114 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 312 Jackson St. W 113-55 99%     1 - 0 +46.6 +28.7 +13.6
  Fri, Nov 7 174 Florida Gulf Coast W 113-70 97%     2 - 0 +38.8 +28.8 +7.3
  Tue, Nov 11 29 Texas Tech W 81-77 76%     3 - 0 +14.7 +10.3 +4.3
  Fri, Nov 14 179 Colgate W 84-65 97%     4 - 0 +14.6 +12.6 +2.8
  Wed, Nov 19 10 Alabama L 86-90 48%     4 - 1 +14.7 +9.0 +6.1
  Sat, Nov 22 227 LIU Brooklyn W 98-58 98%     5 - 1 +33.1 +20.1 +12.3
  Mon, Nov 24 209 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-73 98%     6 - 1 +7.8 +10.9 -3.1
  Fri, Nov 28 6 Connecticut L 61-74 40%     6 - 2 +7.7 +1.7 +5.3
  Sat, Dec 6 17 Tennessee W 75-62 57%     7 - 2 +29.2 +20.6 +10.3
  Tue, Dec 9 24 @Ohio St. W 80-79 51%    
  Sat, Dec 13 48 Nebraska W 84-74 83%    
  Mon, Dec 22 37 Missouri W 82-77 69%    
  Mon, Dec 29 199 Southern W 91-68 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 96 Penn St. W 85-72 88%    
  Thu, Jan 8 123 Rutgers W 84-65 95%    
  Sun, Jan 11 25 @Iowa W 74-73 52%    
  Wed, Jan 14 61 @Northwestern W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 102 Minnesota W 79-63 93%    
  Wed, Jan 21 93 Maryland W 85-70 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 7 @Purdue L 74-79 31%    
  Thu, Jan 29 49 Washington W 82-72 83%    
  Sun, Feb 1 48 @Nebraska W 81-77 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 61 Northwestern W 83-71 86%    
  Sat, Feb 7 12 @Michigan St. L 71-74 37%    
  Tue, Feb 10 30 Wisconsin W 84-77 74%    
  Sun, Feb 15 28 Indiana W 80-73 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 35 @USC W 82-80 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 27 @UCLA W 74-73 54%    
  Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 77-82 31%    
  Tue, Mar 3 81 Oregon W 84-70 89%    
  Sun, Mar 8 93 @Maryland W 82-73 80%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 2.9 1.4 0.3 9.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.9 7.2 4.5 1.1 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.6 7.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.3 0.2 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.6 11.1 14.1 15.9 15.4 12.5 8.4 4.0 1.5 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 95.3% 1.4    1.2 0.2
18-2 72.9% 2.9    1.8 1.1 0.1
17-3 39.1% 3.3    1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0
16-4 11.2% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 4.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 100.0%
18-2 4.0% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.8 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 8.4% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.2 1.9 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
16-4 12.5% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 2.8 1.3 3.6 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.4% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 3.5 0.4 2.0 5.3 5.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.9% 100.0% 7.6% 92.3% 4.3 0.1 0.6 3.3 5.2 4.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.1% 99.8% 4.8% 95.1% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 4.4 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 11.1% 99.1% 3.0% 96.1% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-9 7.6% 97.1% 1.5% 95.6% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 97.0%
10-10 4.6% 90.3% 1.6% 88.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.5 90.1%
9-11 2.6% 69.2% 0.7% 68.5% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.8 68.9%
8-12 1.1% 36.5% 0.3% 36.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 36.4%
7-13 0.6% 7.1% 7.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.1%
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.9% 8.7% 88.2% 4.5 6.4 12.1 17.8 17.9 14.3 10.6 7.2 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.1 96.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.6 17.4